Ahmadinejad’s recent announcement that Iran will proceed to weapons-grade enrichment of uranium has brought much of the Western world to its senses about talking the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism into giving up its nuclear quest. On Obama’s recent call for sanctions, the BBC reports (emphasis mine):
The president sounded not unlike his predecessor George W Bush, who worked for years to contain Iran, a sign that Mr Obama’s policy to engage with the Islamic Republic has failed.
The question now is whether a new round of sanctions would be any more successful than those imposed under Mr Bush’s watch.
Even the uber-doves at The Harvard Crimson have moved beyond praise for the Obama administration’s policy of engagement to a belated sense of urgency about Tehran’s “unacceptable” atomic ambitions.
This is something of an “I told you so” moment for hard-liners and skeptics of Obama’s kid-glove diplomacy. The kind of news that brings a crooked smile to Dick Cheney’s face. But I think all of this blather about the “failure of engagement” misses the point. What exactly has engagement failed to accomplish?
No one ever should have given it much credence as a self-contained strategy for stopping Iran in its tracks (though you could be forgiven in light of the misleading campaign rhetoric).
‘Engagement’ was more style than substance — a way of branding something that had been tried before in a way that would bring America’s good-faith efforts to the fore and turn the tide of world opinion in favor of greater confrontation. Obama’s “failure” serves to highlight Iran’s failure to take advantage of an explicit opening for dialogue:
In the meantime, the case for sanctions, both at the U.N. and unilaterally, has been enormously strengthened by the clear demonstration of good-faith efforts to pursue a diplomatic solution. And Iran’s confrontational decision to further enrich its LEU will make it significantly more difficult for Russia and China to obstruct sanctions at the UNSC.
So ‘engagement’ was at the very least an effective PR strategy. Obama’s demonstration of good faith will ensure that regime enablers such as China and Russia bear increasing costs if they obstruct sanctions. As The Crimson opines:
China’s refusal to approve any additional penalties for Iran has stymied hopes that coordinated international action might stop Iran’s rulers from pursuing a bomb. The United States must make it clear to China that its actions are absolutely unacceptable and constitute an irresponsible policy for a nation so committed to its own “peaceful rise.”
