An Unfair Fight

My grandfather was born in 1936. When he was 16, Puerto Rico ceased being a mere territory of the United States and adopted “Commonwealth” status. His mother had helped found the Puerto Rican Independence Party (PIP), and his father was a pro-statehood Republican and local Supreme Court justice. He would become the pro-Commonwealth party’s leader and eventually serve as Governor of Puerto Rico. This family history symbolically resembles Puerto Rico: a big family passionately divided by preferences about the island’s political status.
Commonwealth status is unique and unprecedented under U.S. federalism. Under the Commonwealth, Puerto Ricans are U.S. citizens locally organized under an autonomous government similar to that of a state. They do not vote in presidential elections and may elect one non-voting representative to Congress, even though federal law applies in Puerto Rico unless explicitly stated otherwise. Nevertheless, consistent with the founding principle of no taxation without representation, Puerto Ricans are exempt from federal taxation, and the Commonwealth can determine its own fiscal policies.
Historically, Commonwealth supporters have called for expanding local autonomy within the U.S. constitutional framework, a hotly debated concept popularly known as “enhanced” Commonwealth.  Puerto Ricans have twice voted for Commonwealth in 1967 and 1993, but supporters within the Popular Democratic Party (PDP) were unsuccessful at negotiating their proposed enhanced Commonwealth. Subsequently, in 1998, the pro-statehood New Progressive Party (NPP) designed another plebiscite with a sole Commonwealth option that would have been unable to expand Puerto Rican autonomy. Commonwealth supporters felt excluded and successfully rallied support for “None of the above,” defeating statehood.
On Election Day, Puerto Ricans will vote for the fourth time on their political status, but this time the question will be framed differently. Rather than explicitly choose between independence, statehood and the existing Commonwealth, Puerto Ricans will have a confusing two-step choice to make. Given past plebiscite results, this is a fundamentally flawed vote with an undemocratic structure designed to assure statehood that will likely backfire.
A “Rigged” Process
The upcoming plebiscite excludes the possibility of voting for either “enhancing” Commonwealth or “None of the above”. Rather, the two-round plebiscite first asks voters whether they want to continue under the “present territorial relationship,” a term designed to evoke what some consider a colonialist legacy. Subsequently, on the same ballot, voters must choose between “non-territorial options.” These options include statehood, independence, and free association, a form of independence that has been termed by ballot drafters as “sovereign Commonwealth” to confuse Commonwealth supporters. This is tantamount to asking Americans during the 1992 Presidential election: “Womanizing Governor of Arkansas: Yes or No?” and then making them choose between the “non-womanizer options,” George H.W. Bush and Ross Perot.
Roberto Prats, Chairman of the Puerto Rican Democratic Party, told the HPR that this process is “an exercise in mathematics” strategically designed to favor statehood. “If you bundle statehood and independence supporters against the Commonwealth, in theory you will win the first question with a resounding ‘No.’” Prats’ claim is grounded in the 1993 plebiscite results: together, statehood (46.3 percent) and independence supporters (4.4 percent) voting “No” would have defeated Commonwealth supporters (48.6 percent) voting “Yes.” Had the upcoming ballot sequence been used then, statehood would likely have easily won by drawing merely 10 percent of Commonwealth supporters, an easy goal for an island inherently afraid of independence.
Statehood supporters frame the issue differently, arguing that the present relationship is undemocratic and justifying its exclusion from the second round. For NPP leader Ricardo Rosselló, the only thing unfair is, “the current status and its negative effects on our society.” He argues that no political process is perfect and the opportunity to reject what he considers the current colonial status, “outweighs any other political consideration.”
Furthermore, Rosselló questions Prats’ premise, citing recent polls where statehood gathers more support than Commonwealth in head-to-head matchups. Nevertheless, polls from the past 23 years show Puerto Ricans continuously alternating between favoring Commonwealth and statehood.
Two years ago, the U.S. House of Representatives appeared to share Prats’s concern. When a bill calling for a similarly structured plebiscite concerning Puerto Rico’s political status was considered, Congresswoman Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.), classified this arithmetic scheme as a “rigged process.” She presented an amendment to add a Commonwealth option for the second round of voting. The Foxx amendment and larger bill passed, but died in the Senate, leaving the governing NPP to design the plebiscite locally.
What to Expect?
The pro-Commonwealth PDP will vote to preserve Puerto Rico’s current status, motivated to protest against the incumbent NPP governor for excluding their Commonwealth aspiration from the ballot. Ironically though, the “rigged” plebiscite structure might backfire. Recent polls indicate a majority of eligible voters favor maintaining the existing Commonwealth, and even more surprisingly, a fourth of NPP supporters intend to vote for preserving the Commonwealth. Apparently, they fear that voting “No” would send an anti-American message to Congress. Puerto Rico’s pro-statehood Secretary of State Kenneth McClintock attributes this to media outlets that “somewhat erroneously have suggested” that if voters choose statehood and the U.S. Congress rejects the island’s bid, then independence would come by default.
Statehood supporters legitimately have more reasons to worry. This plebiscite labels the free association option “sovereign Commonwealth” to persuade Commonwealth supporters to vote “No.” Free association earned only 0.3 percent popular support in the 1998 plebiscite, but using the language “sovereign Commonwealth” has had unintended consequences. Free association is virtually tied with statehood in second round polls because most voters are confused between “sovereign” and “traditional” Commonwealth. This underscores the political impact the word “Commonwealth” has, and sheds light on why its adversaries have avoided tackling it head-first.
The PDP rejects free association and has asked its voters to abstain from the second ballot question, but apparently, its supporters are not listening and are voting for “sovereign Commonwealth” to defeat statehood. The confusion surrounding “sovereign Commonwealth” is causing havoc. For Prats, this is irrelevant, since he believes the “‘Yes’ result will prevail in the first question thus making the second question moot.”
Apparently, the NPP’s plan to secure a statehood victory by first uniting statehood, independence, and free association supporters against the Commonwealth and then dividing Commonwealth supporters between these options may run awry: they are positioned to lose both rounds of their ill-conceived plebiscite.
Towards a Fair Process
The United Nations acknowledges self-determination when a political unit chooses freely between annexation, independence, free association, and “the emergence into any other political status freely determined by a people.” The latter for Puerto Rico would be Commonwealth, and the Obama administration has acknowledged Puerto Ricans’ right to choose between all four options, committing itself to respecting the results of November’s plebiscite should it produces a “clear” result.
However, this confusing and unfair process will likely fail to produce a clear result. Statehood could theoretically arise even if a plurality of voters favor Commonwealth, and “Sovereign Commonwealth” could win amidst great confusion. Rather, the vote should be simple: choose explicitly between statehood, independence, free association, and Commonwealth, and have a run-off between the two most popular choices.