New York Times blogger Nate Silver, who correctly predicted all 50 states in the 2012 presidential election, has released his own forecast for the 85th Academy Awards. He has done this twice before, in 2009 and 2011, with a 75% success rate.
He’s only 2 out of 4 right now with 2 major categories left, which suggests that predicting election results is an easier science than decoding the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Update: Nate Silver finished the night 4 for 6, yielding a 66.7% success rate.
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