The Inland Empire was hit hard by the 2008 recession with rows upon rows of houses displaying “for sale” signs. In this time of desperation, voters found a sense of hope and security in re-electing their beloved Republican Congressman David Dreier, the then chairman of the House Rules Committee. Dreier’s 2012 decision to retire from Congress shook California’s political framework. Some speculated at the time that Dreier had stepped down because of California’s redistricting.The conservative base he had worked for decades to build was split in two, and some thought that this redistricting would allow for a Democrat to take control of the seat.
Democrats jumped on the opportunity but suffered a major blow in the primaries as the overflow of Democratic candidates, alongside California’s Top Two Candidates Open Primary rules, allowed for two Republicans to make it past the primary. Gary Miller, a veteran Republican congressman, then went on to win the open seat. While Miller won the 2012 election, the shift from what was a traditionally conservative district to a more liberal district was already being felt as 57 percent of the region voted for Obama. Miller’s decision to not run for re-election, after only serving one term under these new district boundaries was also unexpected.
Now, in 2014 with the 31st District still suffering economic woes, Democrat Pete Aguilar has made it passed the primary and faces Republican Paul Chabot. Since both have never served in Congress, the incumbency advantage has been eliminated and this election will finally reveal the true color of a district that has undergone paramount changes in its economic and social structure.
Comparing Candidates
Both Paul Chabot, the Republican nominee and Pete Aguilar, the Democratic nominee, exhibit impressive legacies in the field of public service. Chabot has a wide array of military, private, and governmental experience. Chabot has over a decade of military experience, is a veteran of the Iraq War, and has worked for the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the National Military Command Center. Serving as part of the Clinton and Bush administrations and eventually earning the title of White House Senior Advisor for Law Enforcement, Justice and Drug Control Programs has also afforded Chabot a strong background in the field of public policy. When it comes to national policy issues, Chabot may be the most informed and experienced candidate.
Pete Aguilar comes from a more humble background. A native of the Inland Empire Region, Aguilar attended the University of Redlands on Pell Grants and worked diligently afterwards to become a small business owner and politician. He has dedicated his career to public service and served as a Redlands city councilman before holding his current title of Mayor. While Aguilar has focused intently on local politics, this may indeed be his greatest asset. Aguilar may be most in touch with the constituents of the Inland Empire, especially those of the middle class and of Latino background (approximately half of the district) considering his past work and personal background.
In an interview with the HPR, Aguilar stressed that he felt the defining issue was “who was going to stand with the middle class and support the economy of the Inland Empire.” While this stance has been held by almost every Democratic candidate in recent years, he said that he feels his background has thoroughly prepared him to be an effective Congressman. Specifically, he noted that he has, “worked across party lines as the Mayor of Redlands, with Democrats and Republicans, to bring people together to solve problems and to deliver results for the community. We balanced budgets, started loan programs for small businesses, and reduced crime.”
Aguilar also argued that the defining difference between him and his opponent was his “track record of working together and putting the community first” and his belief that “the people want someone who’s going to ensure that a strong and fair economy is built for the middle class.” His track record supports his claim. Aguilar oversaw the improvement of street and road infrastructure in Redlands and worked to make a multi-million dollar city deficit into surplus. Furthermore, he has worked to aid veterans in finding jobs and stands alongside his fellow Democrats in his commitment to strengthening Medicare and Social Security.
Chabot, while also adamant about working for the betterment of the 31st district, stressed a much more conservative angle to the Harvard Political Review and stated that he felt the defining local issues of the race were, “jobs, family, and safety.” He hopes to bring “high paying jobs to this region.” On the issue of family, Chabot wants to quell fears about, “unsafe streets and worries about college costs.” Finally on the issue of public safety, Chabot wants to restore the greatness of cities in the Inland Empire now infested with gangs. Chabot also stated that his background, consisting of work with the military, law enforcement, and private sector, gives him a unique insight into the issues that need to be addressed. He stated that “with the challenges our world has today with terrorism and ISIS . . . It’s very comfortable for me to talk about the threats our nations faces from a very practical and personal perspective.” Furthermore, he stated that, in the field of law enforcement, he has “worked throughout every single city within this district, whether it was keeping kids off drugs or patrolling as a reserve deputy sheriff.” Finally, he stated that his work in the White House and at the state level has shown him “how government works and how it does not work.”
Thus, while both candidates agree that action needs to be taken to reform key aspects of the 31st district, it is clear that they have carefully crafted their stances to adhere to their respective constituencies. Specifically, both Aguilar and Chabot realize that the key issue in this race is the economy of the Inland Empire and while both see job growth as a key concern, Aguilar’s commitment to programs such as Medicare and Social Security may win him a broader constituency than Chabot.
Furthermore, their backgrounds may be indicative of what role they will play in the new Congress if elected. One can expect a strong advocate for the middle class and the 31st district in general if Aguilar is elected and a focused policy maker on both the local and national level if Chabot is elected. However, who exactly is elected in the coming days may depend on more than just the two candidates final campaign maneuvers.
Crucial Campaign Characteristics
The election will be a close one to say the least. The demographics and past voting statistics of the region speak for themselves. As previously mentioned, the 31st district has a history of voting conservatively, broken only by the 57 percent of Obama supporters in 2012 and the recent Democratic general nomination of Aguilar. Furthermore, race and ethnicity will play an interesting role in the election. Aguilar may benefit from his strong stance on immigration reform, considering the fact that 35.5 percent of citizens who are of voting age are Latino and the fact that 49.4 percent of the district in general is Latino.
If Chabot is to win the election, then he must make sure to mobilize the traditional conservative base of the district. His efforts to personally canvass the homes of the district are admirable, but Chabot is being outspent 20 to 1. This large difference in campaign finances is disturbing but a closer look may also shed light on the potential outcome of the election. According to Aguilar, his campaign has raised 1.5 million dollars and in the last quarter alone over $500,000 has been raised by 9,000 individual contributors, 89 percent of which have donated below $100. What these startling statistics indicate is that Aguilar has been successful in building a strong grassroots base, one that may just win him the election.
With the election just around the corner, both candidates must now make their final push to get their respective bases to the polls and win over undecided voters. The undecided vote should not be overlooked too quickly either as those with no party preference constitute 23.1 percent of the electorate in the region. Whether these voters are truly undecided is hard to tell, but what is known is that every effort from now until election day will prove consequential in determining whether California’s 31st district will stay true to its red roots or branch out and embrace the blue horizon.
© 2024 Harvard Political Review. All rights reserved.