President Joe Biden entered office with a promise: declaring an end to inhumane immigration policy, a reversal of Trump-era border restrictions, and a restoration of “humanity and American values to our immigration system.” Four years later, this promise could mean his downfall. If there is one word to describe America’s immigration system at present, it is “chaos”: A record 2.47 million migrants crossed the southern border in 2023.
Hoping to alleviate such chaos in advance of the upcoming presidential election, Biden curated a bipartisan legislative deal in the Senate. If enacted, this bill would have provided $20 billion in funding for stricter immigration enforcement, and additional presidential power to expel migrants if authorities were to become overwhelmed. Not only was this bill blocked by GOP lawmakers, but it was also criticized by progressives, who accused Biden of breaking a promise to reverse Trumpian immigration policies. If Biden hopes to win the upcoming 2024 presidential election, he must undertake executive action that maintains a bipartisan, moderate approach to immigration, a stance that is unlikely to appeal to progressives in his party.
Biden entered office with a wave of hopeful voters. During his 2020 presidential campaign, the immigration stance most appealing to voters was simple: a “more humane border policy” that would reverse Trump’s hard-line immigration model. Nothing worked better to garner voter support than vowing to undo Trump-era policies. This strategy proved effective in securing Biden the Oval Office, but many Americans passionate about immigration policy remained skeptical of his commitment to the cause. “It’s easy to promise us something when we’re in the midst of a difficult and historic moment like the Trump administration,” explained Greisa Martínez Rosas, executive director of United We Dream to NPR in 2022, “but what really defines someone’s character is what they’re able to do beyond their words and actually deliver.” Implementing progressive immigration reform is more easily promised during a campaign than done once in power. Nonetheless, entering office and failing to act on such a promise holds true consequences for a president vying with the American people for a second term.
Initially appealing to a Democratic voter base, Biden attempted a root cause approach to immigration policy, viewing the alleged chaos at the border as a symptom of political and social instability in Central America. Reversing wall construction and Trump’s “Remain in Mexico” policy, the Biden administration instead focused on improving economic conditions in Central America. Nonetheless, immigration specialist Ariel Ruiz Soto explains that such a strategy was miscalculated and “focused on countries that are no longer the primary sending countries.” In other words, Biden’s root cause approach is unrealistic, as significant institutional reform takes time that a looming election will not be able to provide. With a total of 583,000 border arrests in 2023, the vast majority of migrants at the border are from Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba, and Haiti, whereas the “roots cause” approach focused on Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala.
A record level of migrants in the United States only worsened the situation under a system unable to maintain such flow. In 2023, 2.47 million encounters were reported at the border, increasing from 2.37 million in 2022. With bipartisan legislation yet to be implemented, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement is facing a $700 million budget shortfall, resulting in ICE slashing its detention capacity and releasing thousands of migrants.
Significantly affected by such influx, large cities, such as New York City, have pleaded for federal support as 110,000 asylum seekers from the southern border seek housing support. In a town hall-style gathering, New York City Mayor Eric Adams, a Democrat, criticized President Biden for failing to handle asylum seekers, stating, “Let me tell you something, New Yorkers, never in my life have I had a problem that I did not see an ending to — I don’t see an ending to this […] This issue will destroy New York City.” Given that political leaders from both sides have come to criticize Biden on this issue, his lack of action is likely to remain a deterrent for potential moderate voters.
Republican leaders have used Democratic frustration as a talking point for the 2024 presidential election; Biden’s lack of assertiveness highlights a potential weakness in his campaign strategy. Former speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy used Mayor Adams’s statement as he argued that the “Biden Border Crisis is hurting the country,” stating “Mayor Adams is right, New York City deserves better.” Other prominent Republicans such as former Vice President Mike Pence and New York Congressman Nick LaLota have similarly applauded Adams’s criticism of Biden.
Despite progressives calling the mayor’s rhetoric “racist,” the president must ignore such claims if he hopes to win the election. To do so, Biden must take aggressive action that listens to the concerns of Democrats leading major American cities and battleground states. “You have got to make decisions based on what’s the right thing to do,” declared Senator Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., “And what we need is stronger border security.” Biden’s failure to take strict action and decision to bend to progressive rhetoric ensures that chaos will continue at the border and that the issue will be used as an effective GOP talking point in the upcoming presidential election.
Not to mention, the American public has moved rightward on immigration. This is a political liability for Biden, as only 27% of Americans approve of his handling of the border, whereas twice as many trust Trump. According to a poll from Monmouth University, 70% of those surveyed disapprove of Biden’s overall handling of immigration. In a reversal of prior attitudes on the construction of a border wall, according to a poll by YouGov, a growing number of Americans favor its construction, including a reported 32% of Democrats. Considering these views represent an increasing number of Americans, appealing to such demands through more robust border security will be essential if Biden plans to maintain office.
President Trump, alternatively polls well on this issue among voters, therefore explaining his decision to block Biden’s bipartisan deal in order to ensure the border remains a salient issue in the upcoming election. In an attempt to fend off any challenge to his presidential campaign, Trump declared, “As the leader of our party, there is zero chance I will support this horrible open borders betrayal of America. I’ll fight it all the way.” As the vast majority of GOP members of Congress obeyed Trump’s demands, despite Biden’s broad set of attempts at compromise, little interest in anything other than political football remains at the heart of the GOP’s decision to vote against a bipartisan deal.
To make matters worse, many progressives view this turn as a betrayal of their own cause, threatening to pull support from Biden’s 2024 reelection bid. Responding to Biden’s adoption of Trump policies, including that of finishing the construction of the border wall, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, D-NY, claimed, “Republicans are just getting what they want on the border, but then we aren’t getting reforms on immigration.” Not only does progressives’ lack of willingness to compromise threaten the unity of the Democratic party, but it also sets unrealistic standards for bipartisanship on an issue as sensitive as immigration. Top senate Democrats, such as Chris Murphy, D-CT, recognize this, stating, “I hope to be able to make the case that there are a lot of significant reforms to Democrats … but yes, I think that this was always going to be a compromise.” Going forward, Biden must act on moderate immigration policies, appealing to both sides of the political spectrum rather than merely responding to progressive criticism. In doing so, not only would he appeal to the vast majority of moderate Democrats, but also potentially obtain the support of moderate Republicans, therefore allowing him to comfortably move away from a high level of dependence on challenging progressives.
President Biden is now left with two options: continue his attempt to compromise with both unbudging progressives and members of the GOP, or utilize his executive power to implement a moderate approach to border security through reasonably strict legislation. With a looming election, the latter is most viable in heightening his chances of winning. Buckled under the weight of record levels of migrants along the border, Biden can utilize his executive power to stabilize America’s asylum system, satisfying a more conservative GOP while also providing defense against Trump’s attacks on faulty border policy. By implementing such strategies, there is, to some extent, hope that Biden could win.
