The makeup of the 119th Congress is set to be decided this November, and out of the 435 seats up for election in the House, very few are competitive. According to analytics from FiveThirtyEight, only 10 races are considered “toss-ups,” meaning both candidates have less than a 60% chance of victory. Though these predictions aren’t perfect, they indicate that the House will be won by a razor-thin margin, as the results of these races will push either party over the 218-seat majority threshold.

The House is uniquely unpredictable this election cycle compared to the Senate. Democrats are defending 23 of 34 Senate seats up for election, and the current 51-49 split means Republicans only need to pick up either one seat and the presidency or two seats to gain an outright majority. Forecasts by the New York Times/Siena College and the Cook Political Report predict a clear Republican win. Yet, the House’s makeup is impossible to call, with slim statistical margins on either side. These swing races have massive implications, even as they represent only a small fraction of the country.

From the West Coast to the far Northeast, here are five key House races that could be turning heads this week. 

Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District

For 2024’s presidential hopefuls, all eyes are on Pennsylvania. Wielding 19 electoral votes and a population of nearly 13 million, the state has long been a key stepping stone in the path to the White House. Understanding the state’s vote for President, however, will require examining its lower-level races.

In Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Matt Cartwright is facing a challenge from Trump-endorsed Republican Rob Bresnahan. Cartwright won the district in 2022 by 2.4 percentage points, a margin that narrowed from his 3.6 percentage point victory in 2020. Despite Dems winning the House seat that year, then-presidential candidate Joe Biden lost the district by a similar margin.

That is especially noteworthy as the district houses the city of Scranton, the birthplace of President Biden and a community explicitly woven into his campaign theme of “Scranton values against Mar-a-Lago values.” Biden, evidently, is no longer the nominee, but which way Scranton — and the district it inhabits — will vote remains an important focus of 2024.

Campaigns in the district have received millions in funding, more than any other region in the state, and Democrats and Republicans have both put the 8th District on their “key races” shortlists. The hope among both parties, aside from winning the seat, is that a down-ballot victory can boost their respective candidate at the top. 

Crucial to winning Pa.-8 is effectively appealing to manufacturing interests. 11.9% of Pennsylvanians work in manufacturing, an industry that has long been central to the state’s political identity. According to NPR, half of all registered voters in Pennsylvania worked in the state’s steel, coal, or manufacturing industries.

Republicans currently hold an advantage with these voters, but both parties have tailored their messages to this key demographic. Trump met with the state’s farmers and manufacturers on the campaign trail in September, and Harris, while speaking in the state, pitched a lofty $100 billion manufacturing plan. While the 8th District is not among the most manufacturing-heavy regions, its 10.8% mark is close to average, making it a good proxy for how voters may behave statewide.

If Pa.-8 is broadly representative of Pennsylvania, a state considered to be representative of the country at large, the 8th could serve as a bellwether of the election to come. For now, according to the Cook Political Report, it remains a toss-up.

Maine’s 2nd Congressional District

For Senate Democrats, Joe Manchin, I-WV, is considered the thorn in the party’s side. For House Democrats, that title goes to Rep. Jared Golden, D-M.E.

In August, the representative from Maine’s 2nd District announced that he would not be endorsing a presidential candidate. The statement came after previously questioning Kamala Harris’s platform, and, while Biden was the presumptive nominee, writing an op-ed stating that “Donald Trump will win, and I’m okay with that.”

For Golden, these moves are a requirement to stay afloat. Maine-2 was the only district in New England to vote for Donald Trump in 2020, and is the second-most rural district in the country by land area. 

Austin Theriault, a former NASCAR driver and Maine state representative, is Golden’s Republican challenger. The two have already sparred in three separate debates, yet they remain in a statistical dead heat, according to a recent Atlantic Research poll.

In many ways, the race is unique for its lack of ideological differences. Donald Trump remains incredibly popular in the district, and both candidates frequently draw on the former president’s national messaging. However, the disagreements that do exist between the two candidates have become fierce.

On abortion, Golden has vowed his support for reproductive freedom, describing himself as “100%” on the issue. Theriault has positioned himself as the race’s pro-life candidate, although he has defended in vitro fertilization and contraceptive access.

The largest rift between the two, however, lies in the issue of guns. Golden has historically, and most notably in 2021, voted against House firearm control legislation. However, after 2023’s deadly mass shooting in Lewiston, Maine, Golden reversed course, supporting a national assault weapons ban.

The switch has become a major talking point for Theriault and national Republicans, who labeled Golden a “turncoat.” The conservative Restoration PAC has spent $2 million on mailers and digital ads depicting Golden as an anti-gun candidate. Despite campaigning for the “huntsman” vote, Golden has received an “F” rating from the NRA, and his opponent, Theriault, has won the group’s endorsement.

While NRA endorsements seemingly dictated the district’s 2010-2016 elections, Jared Golden has flipped this narrative since, setting up 2024 to be a crucial race. No matter what happens, this race is guaranteed to come down to the wire.

California’s 13th Congressional District

In terms of Democratic safe states, there is none as vital as California. The state’s 55 electoral votes have swung Democratic in every election since 1988, anchoring the Pacific Coast’s “blue wall.” At the local level, however, California has seen growing political nuance, especially in regions like its 13th Congressional District.

In 2022, Republican John Duarte won the seat in the 13th District by less than half a percentage point, making it the closest congressional race in the entire state. A Republican victory in the region coincided with another major change: Following the 2022 Census, the 13th district was entirely relocated.

Such redistricting could prove to have a huge impact on the 2024 election. Christian Grose, a political scientist at USC, says whether or not Democrats control the House could be dictated by four or five of California’s races flipping.

However, Duarte’s close Republican win in the district contrasted with the district's 2020 vote, when residents chose Joe Biden over Donald Trump by 11 percentage points. Experts claim the difference is due to low voter turnout, meaning Calif.-13’s majority Latino population was out-voted by older, White conservative voters. Seeing the potential for an election-altering flip, national Democrats are laser-focused on the 13th district and the two politicians at the head of the race.

Duarte is a pro-choice Republican, running on a platform centered around the district’s farming and agriculture economy. A former pistachio farmer, he has emphasized water rights and infrastructure change to address the worsening droughts facing the West. In 2023, he was the only Republican to vote against an amendment preventing federal coverage of gender-affirming care, and has been vocal in his support of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals.

In a rematch of their 2022 nail-biter, Adam Gray is Duarte’s Democratic challenger. In the conservative 13th district, Gray is a conservative Democrat, running on a platform broadly similar to Duarte. He has attacked Duarte on issues such as veteran care and women’s rights, and promoted his own efforts to suspend the gas tax.

In the 13th District, experts are watching the effects of young and Latino voters, whose potential high turnout for the presidential election could sway the vote. In the latest poll, Gray leads Duarte by just one percentage point.

North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District

North Carolina is a critical swing state for the general election. Most pollsters cite a low single-digit or lower margin between former President Trump and Vice President Harris. However, out of 14 congressional races in the state, only one is competitive. 

Representative Don Davis, the Democratic incumbent, is defending his spot from Republican Laurie Buckhout and Libertarian Tom Bailey in N.C.-1. Davis, a first-term congressman, won in 2022 by almost five percentage points, but his district has changed since then.

In October 2023, the Republican-controlled North Carolina General Assembly approved a new district map. The current state delegation consists of seven Democrats and seven Republicans — a composition that is likely to change. The new map flips three districts from likely Democratic to likely Republican, leaving 10 Republican districts, three Democratic districts, and only one tossup.

Since taking office in 2023, Rep. Davis has been a notable centrist among the Democratic caucus. Voting against the Democratic party 13.7% of the time, compared to a party average of 5.6%, his record reflects the moderate nature of his constituency. Though he endorsed Vice President Harris for president, Davis was one of six Democrats to join a resolution titled, “Strongly condemning the Biden Administration and its Border Czar, Kamala Harris’s, failure to secure the United States border.” 

His challenger, Laurie Buckhout, is a political newcomer and retired Army colonel. Emerging from a competitive primary with 2022 Republican nominee Sandy Smith, Buckhout brings new hope to Republicans’ aspirations of flipping this historically-blue district. A supporter of the Dobbs decision and “America First” Trump-era economic policy, Buckhout diverges from Davis on core issues. She has also assumed a harsher stance against clean air and renewable energy regulations. 

National trends within the political parties are important in this swing district. N.C.-1 is 40% Black, and Republican gains amongst the Black electorate have massive potential in deciding this race. 

Top-of-ballot races are also shaking up this election. Davis’s endorsement of Vice President Harris, only one day after his outspoken disagreement with her handling of the border, drew criticism on where he truly stands with policy. Harris’s popularity as a candidate could affect swing voters’ opinions of Davis.

Meanwhile, Buckhout is dealing with the fallout from her association with North Carolina Lieutenant Governor and current Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson. In September, Robinson was exposed for having posted racist and sexually explicit comments on an online message board. Buckhout hasn’t spoken explicitly about the scandal, but photos of the two together were scrubbed from her social media, and she has not rescinded support for his campaign. 

Cash is pouring into this campaign. According to OpenSecrets, the Davis campaign has raised over $3.1 million, and the Buckhout campaign has collected $2.6 million. Both parties recognize the significance of this district, both for House control and the general election. Though Davis is polling a slight lead, the race remains too close to call. 

Montana’s 1st Congressional District

Coverage of Montana this election cycle has revolved around John Tester and his precarious Senate seat — but he isn’t the only Democrat to watch in Montana. After the 2020 census, Montana was allotted a new congressional seat due to population growth of 13.3% compared to a national average of 7.7% in the last decade. 

This new district is the most contentious in the state. In a rematch of the 2022 election, Democrat Monica Tranel is attempting to unseat incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke after a close loss two years ago. Yet, this year seems more difficult for Tranel as she lags in funding and faces an incumbent. Tranel has raised only $3.1 million to Zinke’s $6.7 million — large sums which indicate the attention and disparity in this race. 

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee selected this race as a “red to blue” district and Cook Political Report recently switched the race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.” These developments present a dilemma for Democrats: whether or not to go all in on Tranel and approach this race as truly winnable or not.

Zinke has been criticized for his dealings as Interior Secretary under the Trump administration. The Inspector General’s office investigated Zinke in 2021 and concluded he “misused his official position.” The Zinke campaign has dismissed these allegations as a political move made by the Biden-controlled White House and maintains the same stance this election cycle. These accusations were public in his successful 2022 campaign, so it is unclear if qualms about Zinke’s character severely harm his chances.

Tranel leads among younger voters aged 18-49 by 14 percentage points, and also polls ahead with women voters. She campaigns on hallmark Democrat policies for this cycle, such as reproductive freedom and clean energy.

Both candidates are focused on skyrocketing housing prices in western Montana but with different approaches. Zinke supports inflation reduction policies and lower spending as a macro-scale way to decrease prices, as well as the HELPER Act, a bipartisan bill to provide loans to select first-time home-buyers. Tranel suggests updating the federal tax code to disincentivize mass corporate ownership of homes or investment properties and to provide tax credits to first-time home buyers.

Zinke retains a polling lead despite being less popular among independents, as the district has more Republican-affiliated voters than Democrats. His widespread name recognition from his time in the Montana Senate, Trump Administration, and two previous House terms gives him an advantage among Montanans. 

The older, Republican lean, yet split-ticket habits of this state set up another tight race between Tranel and Zinke.

Looking Ahead

As per FiveThirtyEight’s 2024 forecast, control of the House is in a statistical dead heat. When one race can tip the scales of the country’s largest legislature, it is especially key to know where to look. 

In addition to the five races analyzed here, national eyes have also fallen on New York’s 19th district, where Democrats maintain a slim lead, Iowa’s 3rd district, where Republicans hold the edge, and California’s 45th district, which is seen as a complete toss-up.

Whether or not current predictions stand remains to be seen. No matter what, however, these few races will shape the nation’s legislative agenda for the next two years.