The 2024 Presidential contest will be remembered for its cascade of catastrophes.
On May 31, former president Donald Trump was convicted of 34 felonies. On June 27, a series of debate stage stumbles led to a mass push within the Democratic party for President Biden to suspend his campaign. On July 13, Trump survived a bullet which grazed his ear and flew inches away from his skull. Finally, on July 21, Biden withdrew from the 2024 Presidential race, paving the way for Vice President Kamala Harris’s nomination. History has shown us that any of those events can determine the outcome of an election. However, how much of an impact will this election’s black swan events really have on who is elected the 47th president of the United States this November?
May 31: 34 Charges
Donald Trump’s 34 felony charges could alienate some members of Trump’s dedicated voter base. In March of 2023, the former president was indicted on 34 felony charges by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg for falsifying business records in order to conceal an affair with adult film actress Stormy Daniels from voters. Following the conviction, 33% of respondents in a POLITICO/Ipsos poll claimed they would be less likely to support Trump in November. Because of the sharp party-line divide in our country and the then rematch between Trump and Biden, pollsters were specifically watching independent voters and how they viewed the outcome of the criminal proceedings. 21% of independents indicated in the same poll that the conviction “made them less likely to support Trump and that it would be an important factor in their vote.”
However, a recent national poll by Marist shows Trump leading with 50% of the independent vote to Harris’s 46%. In comparison, Biden received 52% to Trump’s 43% of the independent vote in the 2020 election. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the polls conducted immediately following Trump’s conviction depicting a large drop in independent support were skewed. An alternative explanation may be that, while the convictions did sway independents for a time, the limited attention span of the 24-hour news cycle and the electorate at large has caused these voters to prioritize other issues in their candidate selection. In any case, despite his criminal conviction, independent voters remain split between both candidates, with an even stronger lean toward Trump than four years ago.
June 27: A Disastrous Debate
Biden and Trump’s June 27 debate was watched by over 50 million people. Presidential debates that reach large audiences have historically had a large impact on the outcome of elections, with the iconic case being John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon’s face-off in 1960. The success of Kennedy’s presidential campaign is largely attributed to his well-received charisma in the televised matchup between himself and the then-vice president.
However, as much as the debate aided the 1960 Democratic nominee, Biden’s debate performance was the final nail in his — already struggling — campaign’s coffin. Ninety minutes of incoherent messaging, hesitations, and weak arguments immediately resulted in calls from all wings of the Democratic party for Biden to suspend his candidacy.
As more data filtered in over the following weeks, it became increasingly apparent Biden’s chances of victory in key swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were slipping away. By June 28, a national poll showed Trump leading Biden 41.33% to 40.62%, and this lead grew further to 43.46% vs. 40.23% by July 21, the day Biden ended his candidacy. This margin, representing roughly 8 million votes nationally, suggests that shifts in critical swing state voting patterns could have significantly impacted the election’s outcome.
Yet, there was another detrimental twist for Biden’s campaign in store.
July 13: An Attempted Assassination
On July 13, Trump became the 16th president to be targeted with an assassination attempt. As the former president spoke at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, would-be assassin Thomas Matthew Crooks climbed up to a rooftop and fired several shots, killing one rally attendee and injuring three others, including Trump. Immediately after the shooting concluded, Trump raised his fist above his bloodied head and cried “Fight, Fight, Fight” to his rally audience. The iconic photo captured of the moment increased Democrats’ election anxiety, and for good reason.
The most recent comparable historical analog to the July assassination attempt is John Hinckley Jr.’s 1981 assassination attempt on President Ronald Reagan. The attack famously improved Reagan’s favorability rating by 11 points. In the following days, Trump’s display of strength appeared enough to completely clear his path to the White House, and spirits were high at the Republican National Convention, which commenced two days following the shooting. Trump’s overall favorability increased by four points and excitement among his base jumped from 70% to 85% in the following week. However, the unexpected events of July 21 eliminated any accumulated lead Trump gained post-July 13.
July 21: A New Candidate
After the combined effects of a weak debate performance and the near-assassination of his opponent made clear that there was no other outcome awaiting in November but a disastrous defeat, the President made the fateful decision on July 21 to suspend his campaign. In a statement posted to X, Biden expressed his gratitude for the opportunity to serve as President and announced his decision not to seek reelection, claiming it was in the best interest of the party.
Twenty-three minutes later, Biden delivered his endorsement to his running mate, Vice President Kamala Harris, and within days, Harris solidified her position as the new Democratic nominee. The sense of urgency and fresh leadership from the change in candidates energized Democratic volunteers and donors, creating a massive surge among grassroots supporters. Enthusiasm among Democrats jumped from 46% in June to 85% following Harris’s entrance into the race, and among independents, enthusiasm rose from 34% to 53%. Within weeks, Harris selected Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, as her running mate, reinforcing the party’s momentum and setting the stage for a competitive race against Trump.
If not for Biden’s decision, the impact of the debate and the assassination attempt of the former president would have likely resulted in a clear, simpler victory for Trump. Harris’ announcement increased Democratic volunteering, enthusiasm, and funding, but will it be enough for Harris to win the White House?
November 5: America Decides
As Nov. 5 rapidly approaches, Harris and Trump have evened out to tie in nearly every swing state, setting up what has the potential to be the closest election in American history. This election has shown how each twist can influence a race’s course in unpredictable ways; only the coming days will tell what this will mean for America’s next four years.
