In January, I talked to Professor Danny Hayes at the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University’s School of Public Affairs about prospects for the primary and general presidential elections in 2012. We discussed potential Republican candidates, factors that will affect the outcomes of these elections, and even who might be our next president.
Professor Hayes pointed out a few things that I think are very important to keep in mind as presidential campaigns begin in the coming weeks and months. Our conversation, edited for time and clarity, will soon be available as a podcast on our website and on iTunes, but I want to share here a few of Professor Hayes’s most interesting opinions.
1. Probably the most important factor in determining who will run for president in 2012 and who will win the primary and general elections is economic progress in the coming months. Generally, there is a strong relationship between economic growth in the last year of a presidency and the outcome of the subsequent presidential election, so if the economy grows even slightly in the coming months, that’s good for Obama’s chances of reelection. However, if the economy stagnates or shrinks, his chances of reelection shrink, too.
2. Though the Democrats suffered a substantial defeat in the midterms, this is not a particularly bad omen for 2012. Generally, the outcomes of midterm elections do not accurately predict the outcomes of subsequent presidential elections. For example, the Republicans were able to take over Congress in 1994, but Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole by a landslide in 1996. Really, the issue is whether or not the economy grows in the coming months.
3. There is a lot of talk about political extremism and “polarization” of the parties, so you might expect Republicans to pick a very conservative nominee (e.g., Sarah Palin), but Republicans are concerned above all with “viability.” They are really more concerned with having a Republican president than with who that president might be, so they will pick someone they think will win a general election against Obama. Consequently, Republican voters must strike a balance between “ideology” and “viability and electability.”
4. Mitt Romney will probably be very popular in 2012, just as he was in 2008, but he presents some problems for Republican voters. He was governor of Massachusetts, seen by most Republicans as the “archetype of a liberal bastion;” he supported the Massachusetts healthcare bill as governor; and he is a Mormon, which is off-putting to some evangelical Christians. That said, he will argue that he can “get things done,” and cite his experience as a businessman, as an organizer of the Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, and, of course, as governor. That said, this “argument for [nominating] him will probably not override [Republican voters’] disagreements on those other issues.”
5. As far as longshot candidates are concerned, Newt Gingrich would not make a strong candidate for president. Though he has name recognition, it would be hard for him to make an argument as to why he is the man for the job in 2012. Michele Bachmann would also be a relatively weak candidate. In her case, it is because she lacks widespread name recognition.
So what do you think? Agree? Disagree? Have a dark horse you would like to see run? Weigh in below.
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