Social issues move off center stage
At the 1992 Republican National Convention, conservative media personality Pat Buchanan fired the opening salvos of the ongoing national culture war, declaring, “There is a religious war going on in our country…it is a cultural war, as critical to the kind of nation we will one day be as was the Cold War itself.” Since then, culturally divisive issues, like gay marriage and abortion, have strongly influenced American elections. But the 2008 presidential campaign has bucked this recent pattern, as voters focused primarily on policy challenges involving the economy, healthcare, and the war in Iraq. Though this may seem like a mere time-out from partisan rancor, new trends could indicate an end to the primacy of hot-button social issues in U.S. politics.
The culture war originated from the rise of the Religious Right and led to the polarization of political parties and voters. Between 1972 and 2004, the number of self-described “extreme liberals” and “extreme conservatives” grew by 35 percent. Though the two groups together compose only 6.6 percent of voters, they often vote in disproportionately large numbers. As Republicans realized that focusing on social issues was a winning strategy, Democrats attempted to respond to Republican rhetoric punch-for-punch. No presidential candidate courted social conservatives as successfully as George W. Bush; a 2004 exit poll found that 22 percent of Americans voted primarily on “moral values,” and the media largely attributed Bush’s narrow re-election to his ability to energize these voters.
War is Over, if You Want It
If these culture wars continue to rage today, one might not have realized it by listening to Senators McCain and Obama on the campaign trail. Buried among the debates on the surge and the economic bailout plan was only an occasional reference to gay marriage or Roe v. Wade. The mortgage meltdown and the ensuing instability on Wall Street took center stage in the 2008 election, as voters feared the possibility of a severe recession. The individual candidates also changed the tone of the debate, basing their campaigns around reform and bipartisanship in order to appeal to much-needed independent voters. Neither candidate shared President Bush’s ability to excite the religious right. As Maralee Schwartz, former National Political Editor of the Washington Post, told the HPR, “John McCain hasn’t worn social issues on his sleeve. Once it became clear that he would be the [Republican] nominee, these issues were just not going to dominate.”
Longer-term factors have contributed to the current détente as well. Interest groups have questioned the wisdom of pouring money into presidential campaigns. In an interview with the HPR, Jennifer Donahue, a veteran political commentator on CNN and MSNBC, noted, “Single-issue groups are focusing on ballot initiatives, state courts, and state legislatures as a means to achieve policy reform.” Donahue believes this “recalibration of strategy” emerged after the 2000 election. In 2004, ballot initiatives banning gay marriage turned out the conservative base for George W. Bush in key swing states. But this strategy was only effective once: all eleven same-sex marriage bans passed, leaving Republicans fewer states to target in subsequent elections.
That election was a high-water mark for social conservatism, as Arizona voters rejected a proposed gay marriage ban in 2006, and the Supreme Courts of California and Connecticut overturned existing bans this year. Is this an indication that Americans have reoriented their social compasses? According to Schwartz, “The country is still divided along the same cultural lines as in 2004. That hasn’t changed.” The difference is that abortion and gay marriage simply motivated fewer voters in 2008.
Change…Can We Believe in it?
Though Americans have not yet closed the book on the culture war, a recent study by Faith in Public Life sheds light on its future. It finds that young religious voters are trending to the left of their parents on social issues. According to the study, a majority of white evangelicals under 35 favor legal recognition for same-sex couples, and 60 percent of young Catholics are pro-choice. With opinion among religious youth shifting, the clock is ticking on divisive culture wars.
Perhaps nothing in this election more clearly foreshadowed the impending end to the culture war than October’s Vice-Presidential debate. When the topic of gay marriage came up, both candidates took moderate stances, agreeing that the government should recognize the rights of same-sex couples, but should not redefine marriage. The entire exchange took only a minute. Moderator Gwen Ifill’s response summed up the position of the American electorate: “Wonderful. You agree. On that note, let’s move to foreign policy…”
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