Electio
n Day 2010 is only a few days away and Democrats are feeling the heat. All around the nation, Democrats are reaching out to voters in key races in which every vote will count. To assist in this effort, the Harvard College Democrats have organized phone banks using the call tool on Organizing for America’s website. As you may remember, Organizing for America is the successor group to Obama’s 2008 campaign, which caused him to be viewed as a campaign rock star. Here in the midterms, Obama is attempting to use that rock star status to his advantage by stumping for candidates in key districts where he can provide momentum. This nation-wide campaign tour, along with the fact that not much has been accomplished by the President in the last few weeks, has earned Barack Obama the title “Campaigner-in-Chief” as opposed to Commander-in-Chief.
So is Barack helping Democrats in this election? After all, it is Barack Obama’s policies that many conservatives and the Tea Partiers are attacking. And even some Democrats have asked Obama to stay away from their districts, afraid of the negative affect that he could have on the electorate. In fact, some of them have gone so far as to attack the President’s support of the bailouts and the stimulus, as well as calling for the repeal of “Obama Care.” But while he may have a negative effect in many districts, perhaps there is something to all these stump speeches.
Tonight, the President is scheduled to campaign in Virgina’s 5th District for Representative Tom Perriello, who is running closely behind his Republican opponent Robert Hurt. Perriello won this district back in ’08 even though Obama lost the district by a slim margin. However, Obama is credited with the increased turnout that supposedly put Perriello on top. They are hopeful that this will happen again, that the electorate, particularly young voters, will be energized enough to offset the enthusiasm among Republicans.
Obama has visited the western states of California, to help fundraise for Barbara Boxer, and Nevada, to help Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid who is currently losing in the polls to Tea Party-backed Sharron Angle. Obama is preparing to make a visit in Bridgeport, Connecticut, Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Chicago. All of this is a last minute effort to contain the losses that will be made by Democrats in the midterm election.
With all of this campaigning happening on Obama’s part, the White House must see that there is some benefit to the President’s visits in these districts, not to mention that these districts have been hand selected in recent daily briefings to President Obama on the current state of the midterm election. In light of this, the answer to the original question that was posed is that Obama will help more than he will hurt if he plays his cards right. For example, just two weeks ago, Obama held a rally at the Hynes Convention Center in Boston in support of his good friend Deval Patrick who is running a re-election campaign for governor. Patrick, who seemed to be down or at least tied in the polls before Obama’s visit has now risen ahead by approximately six percentage points. The “Obama Effect” is expected to work in all the districts he is visiting, hence the reason that they were hand selected. Surely, we know that there was careful consideration in the choosing of these districts because certain states like Wisconsin were left out by Obama and his team because they expect to lose that seat regardless of a presidential visit.
The big question is whether or not Obama will be able to build enthusiasm among Democratic voters as in 2008. The answer is probably, “kind of”. Will he motivate some to go to the polls who otherwise would not have. Yes. Will he be able to convince some to vote for the Democrats even though voters are skeptical of the state of the union and the progress made thus far. Sure. But polls conducted by all the major polling organizations are currently adjusting their data with a 40% Republican-25% Democrat turnout signaling a 15% enthusiasm gap. Unless these numbers change, Democrats in the House and Senate may be doomed.
As many have said, this midterm election will be a referendum on the failed policies of Obama. While many are doubtful of this, the election will be a signal of Obama’s status as “Campaigner-in-Chief.”
