On April 22, 2021, the United States intends to submit a revised pledge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris Climate Agreement. This new commitment, known as a “nationally determined contribution” (NDC), will indicate how the Biden Administration intends to tackle not only climate policy, but also domestic and foreign policy priorities broadly. All eyes will undoubtedly be on the United States as it announces its commitment this Earth Day, exactly five years following the signing of the Paris Climate Agreement.
As the United States finalizes its revised NDC, the Biden Administration should craft its proposal with three key principles in mind: time, innovation, and justice.
Arriving at a final NDC will be no small feat. The Biden Administration’s decision is fraught with risks and uncertainties. Set a target too modest, and the United States risks further ceding leadership on the climate crisis to foreign powers like China and the European Union. Set a target too ambitious, and the United States risks failing to legitimate its commitment with comprehensive climate legislation needed to achieve the goal given razor-thin Democratic margins in the House and Senate; meanwhile, the United States may alienate citizens struggling amidst wobbly pandemic relief and economic recovery efforts back home. The Biden Administration faces little room for error as it balances pressures from environmental advocacy groups and Republican lawmakers domestically, as well as allies and adversaries abroad.
If President Biden’s approach to climate action thus far serves as any indication for how his administration may reach a final decision, the latter risk may prove more likely. Within its first 100 days, the Biden Administration has already signaled an aggressive, whole-of-government approach to addressing the climate crisis. President Biden has installed two climate titans to execute his ambitious agenda: former Secretary of State John Kerry leads international negotiations as Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, while former Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Gina McCarthy spearheads domestic efforts as White House National Climate Advisor. President Biden has followed up his campaign, which offered one of the most progressive environmental platforms of any Presidential candidate in American history, with surgical precision in authorizing a flurry of climate-related executive orders, conducting outreach to stakeholders ranging from Green New Deal advocates to labor unions, and corralling Congressional lawmakers to advance climate legislation.
The United States’ degree of ambition will largely be shaped by the timelines it sets. Time must play a preeminent role in how the Biden Administration sets its NDC for a simple reason: unlike almost any other social or political issue, the climate crisis is uniquely time-sensitive. To truly demonstrate leadership on a global stage commensurate with its historical contribution to the problem and current capacity to advance solutions, the United States should, at minimum, aim to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, placing more emphasis on the “zero” and less on the “net” (a controversial term that allows for continued emissions paired with carbon removal or offset measures). But even more critical than the 2050 goal will be the interim targets set. Several organizations have proposed aggressive 2030 emissions reduction goals, with the US Climate Action Network even calling for a 70 percent reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. The United States’ 2030 goal will serve as a crucial bellwether for how serious it is about combating the climate crisis.
The blueprint for achieving these goals is straightforward to outline, if not straightforward to implement. Put simply, the United States must, to the greatest degree possible, electrify its economy, reduce energy use, transition to clean energy, and remove existing carbon emissions. Perhaps never before has the portfolio of key technologies needed to advance these efforts been more well-defined, including renewable energy, battery storage, electric vehicles, hydrogen, and carbon capture and sequestration. But in order for these solutions to accelerate emissions reductions, they must continue to become more economically viable. This is where innovation comes in.
The United States can play an outsized role in spurring innovation. With countless national research laboratories, world-class universities, renowned startup accelerators and incubators, and a growing workforce eager to participate in the clean energy transition to boot, the United States should restore its firm commitment to research and development. Innovation has been critical for renewable energy to become cost-competitive with fossil fuels: according to analysis from Our World in Data, in the past decade, the cost of solar and wind has fallen 89% and 70%, in no small part due to government investment in R&D. Through this lens, it is unsurprising that renewable energy has now surpassed coal as the predominant source of energy consumption in the United States. With each solar panel and wind turbine installed, and each battery storage and carbon removal project completed, the cheaper these technologies become. The cheaper these technologies become, the more widespread their use, and the cheaper they become. These virtuous cycles will be fundamental to accelerating emissions reductions at the speed and scale necessary to avert the worst consequences of the climate crisis. And the effects will ripple at a global scale: through investments in innovation, clean technologies will become cheaper not only for the United States, but for the entire world, including developing countries that may currently have less capacity to support innovation.
Perhaps most importantly, the Biden Administration must approach this effort with justice at its core. Environmental justice has finally received the spotlight it has long merited, with the rapidly growing recognition of the intersection between racial equity and social justice with environmental issues. Studies have long shown, and groups have long articulated, the disproportionate impacts of environmental issues, not least including air pollution, natural disasters, and toxic waste, on low-income communities and communities of color. While the Biden Administration has pledged to have “40% of overall benefits flow to disadvantaged communities,” it must explicitly outline what “benefits” and “disadvantaged communities” entail. The task facing President Biden is daunting: no previous administration has attempted a similar feat. Yet, despite these difficulties, the commitment remains deeply important for the United States to correct historical injustices while preventing future ones. Advancing climate action and environmental justice are not tradeoffs, as often perceived. Rather, they positively reinforce each other in meaningful, lasting ways. With communities of color disproportionately likely to be concerned about the climate crisis and engaged in efforts to address it, advancing environmental justice is not solely a moral duty — it is also smart politics.
Under the specter of the Trump Administration and its lack of leadership on the climate crisis, symbolized by its withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, faith in the United States’ capacity to assume leadership on climate issues has declined precipitously. Yet, there are few international policy arenas with greater stakes than climate diplomacy. If the Biden Administration seeks to restore the United States’ status as a globally respected leader — and not just on climate issues — it all begins with Paris.
Little time remains before the Biden Administration announces its new NDC to renew its commitment to the Paris Agreement. This decision may be the United States’ last chance to carve out a trajectory to meaningfully combat the climate crisis. Only time will tell whether these efforts will be too late.
Image by Zbynek Burival is licensed under the Unsplash License.
