"Change" Goes Global

What Obama’s election means for international relations

America may have chosen Barack Obama as President this past autumn, but the rest of the world had anointed him long before. After eight years of President George W. Bush’s aggressive unilateralism, symbolized by the unpopular Iraq War, many world leaders were ecstatic at the election of the ostensibly more conciliatory Obama. Yet, despite his popularity, it seems unlikely that Obama will radically alter the course of American foreign policy. Obama may make it more difficult for foreign leaders to rally around anti-American sentiment and may help to restore American soft power. But those expecting dramatic changes in American foreign policy in his first term will be disappointed. His impact on the international arena will likely be more on the process by which policies are implemented than on the policies themselves.
Anti-Americanism
An Obama administration may be most effective in its ability to counteract anti-American sentiment around the world. Obama’s cooperative style of leadership and symbolic value as America’s first black president, some argue, will undermine traditional anti-American arguments. Stephen Walt, professor of International Relations at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, told the HPR that, simply by virtue of his heritage and path to power, Obama’s election will undermine those “who portray [America] as a racist, unfair, bully nation.” This change in international perceptions could have meaningful effects on American foreign policy. Steven Levitsky, Harvard professor of Government and Social Studies, told the HPR that “Obama as President will make it harder for leaders like Hugo Chavez to employ anti-American rhetoric to gather popular support at home. In many ways, the Bush presidency was a gift from Godfor such leaders.” The old arguments depicting America as an imperial, closed-minded nation may no longer hold water.
Signs of such a shift are already coming from the Middle East. For the first time in at least thirty years, Iran sent a congratulatory letter to the incoming President. Emad Shahin, an professor of Government at Harvard, told the HPR, “many people in the Middle East are hopeful that this message of change can reach the Middle East.” Yet, while the suggestion that anti-American sentiment is waning is promising, real change in the Middle East will depend more on America’s actions than on Obama’s image. “There are grounds for him to capitalize on,” says Shahin, “but there are still policies to be drafted.”
Process versus Policy
This problem of perception versus reality pervades all aspects of Obama’s diplomatic style. Obama certainly represents the end of George Bush’s unilateral foreign policy. However, while Obama’s message of “change” and “hope” has created expectations for greater international cooperation, geopolitical realities are unlikely to change significantly. Walt told the HPR, “there is no suggestion of any drastic revision of the foreign policy followed by Bush, except perhaps in the rhetoric and possibility of increased collaboration.”While global leaders hope that America will adopt a multilateral approach to international politics, current international issues, like that of security in the Middle East or the nuclear threat from countries like Iran and North Korea, are likely to persist regardless of Obama’s approach. In the end, Carlos Diaz-Rosillo, Harvard professor of Government,told the HPR, “there might be more emphasis on cooperation and decisions reached by discussion, but I don’t think there’s going to be a lot of change.”
Looking Inward
These concerns about Obama’s ability to deliver on his foreign policy promises are enhanced in the face of economic crisis. Walt notes that Obama’s “biggest challenge is obviously the economy,” suggesting that “foreign policy is likely to take a backseat at such a critical time.” The crisis will assuredly divert attention from dealing with political problems abroad. But despite these economic challenges, an Obama administration promises to revive American soft power and rekindle the belief that “only in America” could he have been elected. Joseph Nye, professor of International Relations at Harvard, told the HPR that “The very election of Obama has done a great deal to restore American soft or attractive power, which should help to create a more enabling environment for his foreign policy.” If Obama is able to successfully navigate the difficult domestic conditions and work with other nations, his presidency could do much to improve American engagement abroad.