The tragedy in Myanmar worsens by the day. Over seven hundred civilians have been killed in the past two months as the country’s military, known as the Tatmadaw, continues to unleash violence against its own people. Yet the people of Myanmar, in an extraordinary display of courage, keep pouring on the streets to demonstrate against the junta in the hopes of restoring democracy.
What Happened?
On Feb. 1, Myanmar’s decade-long experiment with democracy was put on hold as the military seized power and declared a year-long state of emergency. The military coup has thrown Myanmar — a country of 54 million — into a political quagmire and led to speculations that the country could become Asia’s next failed state. The coup came in the aftermath of the November general elections in which Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy won a landslide victory.
The military, which backed the opposition in the elections, disputed the results claiming widespread fraud. But when the election commission dismissed these allegations citing lack of evidence, the military — whose contempt for democracy is no secret — deposed the government in a coup and detained key leaders, including Suu Kyi and President Win Myint. The ensuing protests against the military — which has shown no signs of backing down — has thrown the country into chaos: the economy is on the brink of collapse and speculations of an imminent civil war are rife even as the pandemic ravages the country.
How did it come to this?
Veneer of Democracy
In 2015, people of Myanmar voted in the country’s first openly contested election in 25 years. Suu Kyi’s NLD triumphed in the polls, winning a landslide victory and securing majorities in both chambers of the parliament. Suu Kyi, constitutionally barred from becoming the head of state because she has a foreign spouse and children, created a new position for herself as State Counsellor and became the de facto leader of Myanmar.
The new NLD government became the first administration in over fifty years not to be chosen by the country’s military establishment. An absolute majority in both chambers of the parliament meant that NLD could pass legislation as well as appoint the president and one of the two vice-presidents. Unlike in 1990, the junta accepted the results of the elections, and NLD’s success was seen as a triumph of the long-standing hope for democracy.
Yet, Myanmar never really transitioned to becoming a true democracy. The military-drafted constitution of 2008 guarantees 25% of seats in the parliament for the military and stipulates that the Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of Home Affairs and the Ministry of Border Affairs must be headed by military personnel. With the military wielding veto power over any constitutional change and controlling three ministries, Myanmar’s democracy was largely a facade concealing a sinister reality of military control.
The constitution enshrined the military’s expanded political role in the country’s legislative and administrative affairs and effectively ensured that genuine civilian rule never materialized. Between 2017 and 2020, the Economist Intelligence Unit classified Myanmar as an authoritarian regime, with the country’s democracy index score comparable to that of countries like Russia and Afghanistan. During the same time, the state started cracking down on ethnic minorities.
Woes of a Religious Minority
The military’s campaign of ethnic cleansing against the country’s Rohingya minority grabbed international headlines in 2017. Rohingya are an ethnic Muslim minority that made up around one third of the total population in Rakhine state at the time, differing culturally and linguistically from the majority Buddhist population of Myanmar. While Rohingyas had historically been victims of neglect and discrimination in Myanmar, the situation escalated in 2017 when the military started a ruthless campaign of destroying Rohingya villages.
Supported by Buddhist mobs, the military burned Rohingya houses and killed civilians. Over 6,000 Rohingyas lost their lives in the first month of ensuing violence. As a result, over 800,000 Rohingyas were forced to flee their home and settle in the neighboring Bangladesh as refugees. Suu Kyi’s international reputation as a global human rights icon was tarnished as she defended the military’s actions. Myanmar’s hollow democracy was exposed, and it became clear that the country’s democratic apparatus could not check the military’s power.
2020 Elections and the Coup
Suu Kyi’s NLD secured a resounding victory in the November general elections winning 397 out of 476 parliamentary seats. This result was an even bigger landslide than their 2015 performance, thus extending their majority in the parliament. The election, however, was marred by an economic crisis, the coronavirus pandemic, and continued ethnic conflict.
The election commission cancelled polls in regions where ethnic militias were fighting the military for autonomy — disenfranchising 1.5 million of Myanmar’s ethnic minorities, in addition to over a million Rohingyas who could not vote. This program was understood as favoring the ruling party which did not enjoy much support among the country’s ethnic minorities. Nonetheless, there is no denying that the NLD won a thumping victory and secured seats in nearly all ethnic-minority regions.
The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, however, rejected the poll results citing fraud and called for fresh elections. When the election commission rejected the claim of voter fraud, the military took swift action — overthrowing the civilian government and detaining political leaders.
The Aftermath
The people of Myanmar have taken to the streets in a bid to force the military to reinstate civilian rule. Hundreds of thousands of citizens from all backgrounds have been demonstrating on the streets demanding the restoration of democracy and the release of Suu Kyi and other political detainees. A nationwide civil disobedience campaign has disrupted state affairs and crippled the economy, which had already borne the brunt of the coronavirus pandemic. Some demonstrators have even started fighting back against the military with makeshift weapons. The coup has also exacerbated long-standing ethnic conflicts in Myanmar, and escalating tensions could thrust Myanmar into an outright civil war.
The junta, however, has shown no signs of stepping down and continues to violently crackdown on peaceful protesters. Social media sites have been blocked and independent news media platforms have been banned. On Armed Forces Day, March 27, the military unleashed its deadliest crackdown so far, killing over a hundred people in a single day — among the victims were a five-year-old girl and several other children. The death toll has exceeded 700 as the junta continues to indiscriminately slaughter its own people. The civil resistance, however, continues despite the military’s reign of terror.
International Reaction
The military coup and the subsequent crackdown has attracted widespread condemnation from the international community. The United States and the European Union have imposed sanctions on Myanmar’s military leaders, including General Min Aung Hlaing. In addition to targeted sanctions, the Biden administration has also withdrawn all economic support for the Myanmarese government. Australia has suspended its military cooperation with Myanmar in response to the military’s lethal crackdown. Britain and Canada have also announced sanctions against Naypyitaw’s top military officials.
However, in a stark departure from Western governments, China has refrained from criticizing the military’s actions — even blocking a U.N. Security Council resolution that condemned the coup. Myanmar’s Southeast Asian neighbors, who will be the most directly affected by the crisis, have largely remained silent as well.
What Next?
Despite the incredible resilience of Myanmar’s people, the junta is unlikely to back down, and it seems like the military’s reign of terror will continue for the foreseeable future. The enduring hostility between the military and the people will render the state increasingly dysfunctional and the already crumbling economy will collapse as foreign investors flee the country. Worse, the resurgence of ethnic militias in the face of brutal military repression could result in a full-blown civil war that will push the country into a political abyss which might be difficult to escape. There will also likely be a massive influx of refugees into neighboring countries, potentially destabilizing the entire region.
The military’s reckless takeover of the state has not only crushed hopes of democratic rule but also created a political crisis that will have devastating consequences for years to come.
