An unprecedented level of political energy surrounds the 2024 presidential election in Georgia. Trump signs are everywhere in neighborhoods like mine in Columbus. Meanwhile, Harris ads flood televisions and campaign literature fills our mailboxes. The message is clear: both candidates view Georgia as crucial to their pathway to the White House.
Georgia has the second-highest electoral vote prize among this year’s seven swing states and was the closest state in the 2020 election. It will, undoubtedly, also play a decisive role in the 2024 election.
To secure Georgia’s 16 electoral votes, Kamala Harris must harness support from the state’s growing Latino and Black populations. Harris is also in a very peculiar position: having to carefully walk a tightrope between taking credit for the Biden administration’s popular policies, like the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, while distancing herself from the White House’s perceived failures on immigration and inflation.
A Donald Trump win, on the other hand, is predicated on Trump’s ability to cut into Democratic margins in the Atlanta suburbs, while solidifying his rural base of predominantly non-college-educated White voters.
At the end of the day, the outcome of this election may hinge on how effectively each candidate navigates Georgia’s unique and evolving political currents, with Georgia emerging as the heart of the battle for America’s political future.
A Changing Population
Over the past two decades, Georgia has experienced significant demographic shifts that have redefined the political terrain for both Harris and Trump. Between 2000 and 2019, the state gained nearly 1.9 million new voters, with almost half of this population growth being comprised of Black voters.
Hispanic voters are also a growing influence in Georgia’s electoral landscape. The state’s Latino voter population has nearly “quadrupled since 2000,” according to a UCLA estimate, “now standing at 435,000.” With an increase in voter participation from Hispanics and African Americans, both candidates must address the issues that affect these voting blocs. This shift further complicates former President Trump’s efforts in the diversifying state, given his promotion of ethnic division.
The growing influence of Hispanic voters and other blocs in Georgia is reflected in both candidates’ increased voter engagement and local advertising efforts. These underscore the state’s competitive nature, as seen by recent statewide victories by both parties. In the 2022 gubernatorial election, Republican Governor Brian Kemp defeated Democrat Stacey Abrams, winning re-election by a margin of 7.5 percentage points. However, in the same election cycle, Republican Herschel Walker lost by a margin of 2.8 points in a runoff against Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock.
Candidates in down ballot races often experience a coattail effect — when a victory at the top of the ticket promotes success for their party down the ballot — rendering this outcome unusual. For instance, there were noticeable differences in support among Hispanics for a MAGA candidate versus a moderate Republican. A CBS exit poll showed that Kemp lost Latino men by 11 percentage points, while Walker experienced a larger loss of 24 points. This divergence suggests that while Republican candidates continue to dominate among White, non-college-educated voters, their success in reducing Democratic margins with voting blocs like Latinos and African Americans varies on the candidate.
Can MAGA Gain Ground?
The influence of these demographic groups is further reflected in the struggles of MAGA-aligned election deniers to gain broad support in Georgia. Such candidates underperform in agrarian parts of the state, and their share of the Atlanta vote has declined significantly compared to that of moderate Republicans.
Ticket-splitting was prevalent in the 2022 midterms, with many voters supporting both Republican Brian Kemp and Democrat Raphael Warnock. The Republican candidate for Senate, Herschel Walker, received nearly 200,000 votes fewer than Kemp. He performed the worst in Metro Atlanta, garnering around 80% of Kemp’s vote total in Fulton County. Some voters say they are Republicans but cannot tolerate the constant dishonesty from particular candidates — hence, the split-ticketing. As a result, a vote for Warnock in 2022 may have more so been a vote against Walker.
The disconnect between MAGA-aligned candidates and moderate Republicans is simply an issue of candidate quality: moderate Republicans prioritize character over the divisive rhetoric associated with MAGA candidates. This could be seen in the difference between Kemp and Walker’s candidacies, as Kemp emphasized pragmatic governance while Walker’s campaign was dominated by controversy.
A similar dynamic should be expected in the 2024 presidential election in Georgia, regardless of who ultimately carries the state’s 16 electoral votes. For conservatives, a vote for Harris represents a rejection of Trump rather than genuine support for her. This sentiment is partially motivated by Trump’s previous efforts to overturn Georgia’s election results. In 2020, the former president infamously asked the Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffresnberger to “find 11,780 votes, which is one more than we have, because we won this state.” Trump has also suggested that Raffrensberger could be subject to criminal liability for allowing what Trump falsely claimed to be electoral fraud. As a result, many conservative and independent voters are approaching the 2024 presidential election with a reinforced skepticism of Trump.
Following the former president’s attempts to overturn the democratic election in Georgia, state officials have pursued legal repercussions against Trump and his allies for their attempts to alter the 2020 election outcome. The former president surrendered at an Atlanta jail after facing 13 felony charges related to the state. Trump notably blasted the Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis for bringing these charges against him. Interestingly, following the release of his now-notorious mugshot, Trump’s campaign experienced record fundraising. Moreover, Trump continues to promote his mugshot, positioning himself as a victim of a corrupt justice system in the eyes of his supporters.
This strategy appears to resonate with hard-line conservatives in Georgia, but many moderate voters see these attempts as a disqualification to hold the presidency. A sizable minority of 23% of Republicans view felons as unfit for the Oval Office. In a July 2023 poll conducted by NPR, PBS, and Marist, the actions Trump was convicted of were described as “illegal” by 51% of respondents and “unethical” by 27% of participants. The former president’s legal troubles have the potential to be a major turnoff for moderate voters in Georgia, particularly in suburban areas. Cobb and Gwinnett Counties are home to well-educated, diverse populations — a voting bloc focused on integrity and character in leadership. This underscores the Harris campaign’s push to appeal to suburban moderates and independents in key battleground states like Georgia.
While some state officials have sought to hold Trump accountable, others have chosen to embrace his falsehoods and pass legislation in support of them. The state passed several laws, including stricter voter ID requirements and additional documentation requirements for mail-in ballots — legislation that many see as a concession to election deniers. Even though machine-counting was proven to be non-fraudulent in the 2020 election, the state still chose to carry out these measures.
According to an October 2024 poll by PEW Research Center, approximately three-fourths of likely voters are at least somewhat confident the election will be fair. This, however, does not transcend partisan lines. Ninety percent of Harris supporters have faith in the election system, compared to the only 57% of Trump supporters who have expressed confidence in its validity.
With the state legislature catering to the election denial minority, Harris has an opening to gain the support of moderate Republicans who find these claims absurd. However, laws stemming from Trump’s claims could lead to a decrease in voter turnout among demographics that typically don’t support him. This would improve his chances of prevailing over Harris.
Harnessing the Anti-Trump Vote
Vice President Harris’s strategy, on the other hand, relies on more than garnering the anti-Trump vote. She needs to gain ground with African American men, and match — in fact, preferably, exceed — the support Biden received in the Atlanta suburbs. However, recent polling shows former President Trump is cutting into her advantage within this voting bloc. Thus, in an effort to appeal to these voters, Harris has introduced a new economic plan that intends to punish banks for “hidden fees and predatory lending practices” against minority clients.
The Harris campaign needs these policies to resonate, as she must maximize turnout among young and minority voters in the metro Atlanta area to stand a chance at carrying Georgia. This shoring of support is necessary because Trump will likely carry the rural areas with non-college-educated White voters by a significant margin. To win, Harris needs to be able to cancel out his vote advantage in rural Georgia and build on her support.
Some Georgia voters who have conservative views on issues like gun rights would prefer to vote Republican, but feel unable to do so with Trump as the nominee. Tha Vin, a Georgia voter, told NPR that “[his] rhetoric toward immigrants has been something that has made me not want to vote Republican” despite being a gun owner who “want[s] to vote Republican.” The Vice President has positioned herself as a champion for creating a pathway to citizenship. Harris is attempting to build a coalition beyond party lines, and has directed her appeals to voters who prioritize comprehensive immigration reform, affordable healthcare, and gun safety.
The Nation’s Pivot Point
Although Harris can secure the White House without Georgia, former President Trump loses his route to a second term without the state. In 2020, Georgia was the closest state in the race, with Biden’s winning margin being 0.23 percentage points. However, Donald Trump needed more than Georgia’s 16 electoral votes to defeat Biden, ultimately falling 38 electoral votes short of the 270 needed to win the presidency.
If Trump cannot flip the state that he lost by the narrowest margin, he simply will not narrow the gap in states with the electoral votes necessary for victory like Pennsylvania, which he lost by 1.17 points. Failing to regain Georgia would signal broader voter mobilization issues for Trump, making it harder for him to close the gaps in states like Pennsylvania. While he has seen an increase in support from both Black and Hispanic men, his backing among women has weakened due to his stance on issues like abortion. This shift among key demographic groups will be pivotal in a tight race, since both candidates must capitalize on a wide range of voters.
If Harris wins the state, she is very likely to win the election. Her path to the White House does not hinge on Georgia, though. Securing states like Nevada and the blue wall would give Harris the electoral votes needed to win the White House. However, winning Georgia would solidify her position as a formidable candidate and immediately cut off Trump’s path. If Trump falters in Georgia, it would significantly handicap his chances of recovering in other key battleground states, leading to a dramatic collapse of his path to becoming the 47th president. It would suggest that his polling gains among certain voting blocs, such as Black and Hispanic men, failed to materialize in Georgia or across the nation.
In a state where every vote will count, Georgia’s choice could well be America’s future.
