Since Kamala Harris replaced President Biden as the Democratic Party’s nominee, polls have revealed significant increases in Democratic support among three pivotal voter blocs: Black Americans, women aged 50 and older, and voters aged 18 to 29. Harris and former president Donald Trump have remained statistically tied in polls throughout the race. However, if the Vice President can turn support from these three key demographic groups into votes on Nov. 5, she may be able to claim a decisive victory.
In the following analysis, we explore how these three demographic groups shifted toward Harris, and how these gains in support may prove to be her ticket to the White House.
Black Voters
Black Americans polled by The 2024 Black Voter Project Survey from both March 29-April 18 and July 7-Aug. 19 showed strong support for the Democratic Party’s candidate. When Biden was the presumptive nominee, he held a 48 percentage point lead over Trump with Black voters, although 22% of respondents remained unsure who they would vote for. The most recent poll with Harris as the Democratic party’s candidate has her receiving 73% of the Black vote, a 59 percentage point advantage over Trump with only 14% unsure. According to this set of polls, Black support for Harris has undoubtedly increased this election cycle since she replaced Biden as the Democratic nominee
Historically, Black Americans have leaned heavily toward the Democratic Party, a trend rooted in the political and social transformations of the 20th century. Following the Civil Rights Movement, which aimed to dismantle Jim Crow laws and promote racial equality, many Black voters shifted their allegiance from the Republican Party — once seen as the emancipatory party of Abraham Lincoln — to the Democrats, who championed civil rights legislation. In the 2020 election, the Roper Center found that the Black vote swung overwhelmingly for Biden, with the president receiving 87% support compared to Trump’s 12%.
However, data from The New York Times indicates that the overall Democratic advantage among Black voters has declined over the course of the past few elections. Compared to Biden’s margin in 2020, Harris is down by 12 percentage points.
One reason for this may be a growing gender divergence among the demographic. Polling data from the Howard University Initiative on Public Opinion from September of this year shows that Black women hold a more favorable view of Harris compared to Black men — 73% to 67% — and that Black women view Trump less favorably than Black men do at 17% to 23% respectively. Despite this trend among Black men, Harris still maintains a significant lead over Trump among Black voters overall. An NBC News analysis reveals that Harris is up by 70 percentage points compared to Trump among Black respondents in swing states, who cite Harris’s positions, values, and temperament as key reasons for choosing her over Trump. Harris’s nomination may have staunched the bleeding of support among Black voters that occurred when Biden carried the party mantle.
This reinvigoration of traditional support for Harris could have significant implications for the upcoming election, especially in key swing states with substantial Black populations. For instance, states like Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have large urban centers where Black voters can sway electoral outcomes. Given that Black voters historically play a decisive role in Democratic primaries and general elections, the solidification of their support for Harris may tip the election in her favor.
Women Over 50
A poll of female voters conducted by the AARP from Aug. 27 to Sept. 2 finds that women aged 50 and above swarmed to the Democratic party after Harris became the nominee. Since the last time this poll was conducted in January, Trump dropped four percentage points among this demographic. Harris, on the other hand, tacked eight percentage points onto Biden’s 46% from the beginning of the year. Before the switch, Biden and Trump had polled equal amounts of support in this voter bloc. The percentage of unsure voters in this group has dropped dramatically, and it seems that many of these undecideds jumped on the Harris train going into the fall.
Experts have suggested that the shift in support toward Harris may have to do with dislike with Trump’s rhetoric as compared to Harris’s. Additionally, Harris’s policies on expanding Medicare, protecting Social Security, creating more affordable housing, and subsidizing long-term care for aging adults have earned her support from this voting block. According to the AARP poll, 52% of female voters aged 50 and older trust Harris more on their most prioritized issues, including Social Security, lowering the cost of prescription drugs, and Medicare.
Older women represent a significant and motivated voting bloc that turns up to the polls in large numbers. As voter turnout rates increase with age, and women register to vote at higher rates than men, older women are considered high-propensity voters. In 2022, women aged 50 plus cast one-third of the ballots despite representing 25.5% of the voting-age population.
Because this voter group is reliable, its shift toward Harris could be especially significant for the Democratic party in swing states. Several of the swing states have substantial elderly populations: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Arizona are among the top twenty states for seniors as a share of the population. In Pennsylvania and Arizona, people ages 65 plus represent 19.1% and 18.5% of their respective populations. Winning over older women in swing states would be a major advantage in the scramble for these key Electoral College votes.
Young Voters
On the other side of the age spectrum, young voters have historically had lower voter turnout than older voters and been less politically engaged. Every election cycle, campaigns struggle to mobilize young people to get to the ballot box in November. However, among youth who do vote, the majority tend to support Democratic candidates.
The 2024 Harvard Youth Poll this fall found that, while support for Trump among young voters remained unchanged and low compared to the spring, Harris has garnered significantly more favorability. From Biden’s 38% in March to Harris’s 49% in September, the Democratic Party has seen an 11 percentage point increase in support among young voters. Similarly to the other two voting blocs, fewer young voters identified themselves as undecided or planning not to vote.
While Biden was still the presidential candidate, Democrats struggled to maintain their advantage with younger voters. Young voters’ disillusionment stemmed from several factors: concerns about Biden’s mental fitness, distrust over his handling of the economy and immigration at the southern border, and his response to the Israel-Hamas war. Among voters aged 18-29, only 24% approved of Biden’s job performance.
Although young voters’ concerns about the economy and the Israel-Hamas conflict remain, nominating Harris has helped address Biden’s “young voter problem.” As the new, younger candidate, Harris has generated more energy from young voters, especially young female voters and people of color. The Harris campaign has also embraced social media, using viral moments to promote the candidate, and working with content creators to expand her reach.
Despite their lower turnout rates, young voters still make up a considerable share of the electorate. In 2020, they cast 17% of votes. Their capacity to influence the election continues to grow as eight million youth age into the electorate this year. In the previous 2020 presidential and 2022 midterm elections, young voters played a key role in Democratic wins. Heightened enthusiasm among young voters for Harris may motivate them to show up in greater numbers at the polls and tip the scales in favor of the Democratic Party.
The Democratic Party’s nomination of Kamala Harris as their presidential candidate has favorably shifted three key voting blocs toward her: Black Americans, older women, and the youth. In an election as tight as this one, even small demographic shifts will make a difference. In key swing states like Michigan, where 2022 youth voter turnout was the nation’s highest, and Georgia, where black voters make up one-third of the electorate, these demographic blocs wield even greater influence. Securing their vote could be critical in winning the coveted swing state electoral votes and the eventual seat behind the Resolute Desk.
