A member of the National Regeneration Movement party, commonly known as Morena, Senator Alejandro Murat Hinojosa of Mexico serves as the President of the Mexican Senate’s Foreign Relations Committee. He was previously elected as the Governor of the State of Oaxaca, which he governed from 2016 to 2022. Senator Hinojosa sat down with the HPR to discuss Mexico’s new approach to economic prosperity and law enforcement.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Harvard Political Review: As you are aware, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement is up for renewal in 2026. How do you plan to navigate negotiations with an American president who is focused on an isolationist approach?
Senator Alejandro Murat Hinojosa: We have to start by seeing the USMCA not as a treaty; it’s a co-production supply chain system. I can tell you that many U.S. companies in Mexico clearly have an interest in maintaining their investments by maintaining this co-production system, which additionally generates value to the Mexican economy. It also generates value to the U.S. economy. Mexico has become the number one export market for the U.S., but trade happens on both sides of the border. It’s not only exports from Mexico to the U.S., but it’s also exports from the U.S. to Mexico.
For example, let’s discuss two states that are of different political colors. One is Texas, the other is California. The two represent almost half of the commerce between Mexico and the U.S., and that clearly does not compete with President Trump’s agenda to strengthen the U.S. economy. Industrially speaking, President Sheinbaum is also doing the same thing with Plan Mexico. So I think that both countries and Canada, with Canada Strong, are focusing on strengthening their local economies, and that will help with the global North American treaty.
HPR: In what ways has Mexico considered building new relationships with countries that may be more stable trade partners?
AMH: Let me just make one point. If you analyze the start of President Trump’s administration and what has happened with USMCA, there has been no modification. The only thing he implemented was tariffs on steel and aluminum. So 90% of the treaty today has been untouched. Maybe the politics are different, but we respect that. I will tell you that any actions taken are part of intelligent financial decisions, and Mexico needs to diversify its economy. The first step is strengthening its local economy with Plan Mexico, but also diversifying internationally. I think the best example is one where you have a market like the European Union, because the EU is also very interested in diversifying. They see Mexico as a great potential market. And in March, we will be signing the new advanced treaty with them. Regarding countries that don’t have treaties with us, if it makes sense to form partnerships, we invite them. Through a 25% incentive tariff, we have to invest in Mexico; it’s not that we don’t want commercial activity between countries, but what we want is their companies investing in Mexico to generate the strength that we want in our local economy.
HPR: Pivoting to the tariffs, which you brought up, the U.S. levied a 25% tariff on all Mexican goods not covered by USMCA, before dropping that rate soon afterwards. What impact have tariffs had on Mexico’s economy?
AMH: Uncertainty is the biggest effect. I think that businesses always want stability, and clearly, a moment of USMCA review will generate uncertainty, but I’m looking forward to starting formal conversations at the end of the month. I hope this stays as a review that doesn’t have a high bureaucratic impact, and that we can generate the stability and certainty that the markets want. Once that happens, we will see not only the Mexican economy, but also the U.S. and Canadian economy, stronger. Going forward, I think that Mexico will stay competitive with a comparative advantage over the world. I think that once we finish the review of USMCA, Mexico will still be in the best spot in the world for investment.
HPR: In what ways do you think Mexico is going to have a comparative advantage?
AMH: We still have USMCA, and the legal compliance that the U.S. has is clearly higher than the Mexican legal compliance. The human capital advantages we have from a salary perspective is also an advantage. And geographically, we’ve established this co-production of supply chains that generates the right incentives for companies. If they’re not going to invest in the U.S., then do direct investment in Mexico. Let me give you an example: We currently have 1,500 companies from Japan. And Japan is a country that’s following very closely with the USMCA review and negotiations, because they have clearly taken advantage — especially the car industry — of the benefits that the USMCA has established in Mexico, while keeping the benefits of the U.S. market.
HPR: Two weeks ago, Mexico’s special forces killed cartel boss El Mencho, effectively declaring war on those cartels. What is the nation’s plan to restore law and order?
AMH: We did not declare war. That’s the difference. President Sheinbaum has a very focused four-pillar strategy. First, go to the root causes. Second, use the National Guard as a concentrated Federal Security Force in coordination with the states and the municipalities, which clearly has more capacities in intelligence and investigation. She has been very clear to say that this is not war. It’s applying the rule of law. That means reversing the levels of impunity that Mexico has had in recent years.
I think she has been disciplined enough to have a strategy that she already implemented when she was mayor of Mexico City, which is now giving results. You see a decrease in homicides by 42%. She’s gone after white-collar crime, such as business people not paying taxes or corruption, in areas like the ports. The important thing is that she maintains this strategy so we can reverse the levels of impunity. This has come clearly with reforms we have established, for example, reforms that if you commit certain crimes, you will stay in jail throughout the process. You will have due process, but you won’t have the opportunity to come out, and that is to send the right message. It’s the right message because before this system, when you were prosecuted, after 72 hours, those criminals went out.
We also did the reforms in parallel that basically prevent criminals from using the financial system as an area to prevent getting caught and using the system. We passed the National Guard reform that gives the capacity to those guards to investigate, use intelligence, and help in the prosecution, so that law enforcement can happen, and we can create a stronger case. All of those reforms have strengthened our system as a whole, so that we can achieve the most important thing: reverse the levels of impunity in crime.
HPR: The particular operation with El Mencho was done in combination with U.S. military forces. Is that a collaboration that Mexico is planning on continuing?
AMH: President Sheinbaum has stated publicly that we share intelligence, but all the execution in our territory is done by the security and armed forces of Mexico.
HPR: The Mexican government has tried to suppress cartels in the past, arguably unsuccessfully. What makes this particular moment different?
AMH: Let’s take a step back. In 2009 and 2011, we had two reforms in our legal system: One was the doctrine of conventionality, and the other was the diffuse law review. This basically gave the judges power to declare something that’s in an international treaty unconstitutional, versus a court system where you have to get to the constitutional court to declare that.
Why is this important? Because in Mexico, we focused the last 18 years in the areas of law enforcement and prosecution, but we never focused on the court administration system. What happened is we were building law enforcement, but when everything got to the court system, we had all the criminals go out, so the impunity rate became 90%.
President Sheinbaum is also focused on having sanctions, because if you do all this work, the judicial system has to deliver. Clearly, the state was not delivering in the area of crime and the cartels. But this has been changed by building new capacities with the reforms that I just mentioned, so that the court system, the judicial system, has new capacities to prevent crime. We were previously just focused on having good salaries and generating capabilities so that security forces could implement law enforcement and prosecution. That’s great, because it has to be done, but we have to see this process as a system, and if the judicial system does not sanction the criminals, then we will fail as a system.
Why did this happen? Well, we had a court system and a judicial system that was focused on human rights, but on a very high level, defending the human rights of the criminals, not the victims. And the most important thing is that the court should have the ability to focus on defending the victims, and also the biggest victim, which is society.
HPR: Briefly, what is one thing you want the world to know about the future of Mexico
AMH: That we will be unstoppable.
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