We asked some of HPR’s brightest minds what they thought about Israel’s situation a few months after the revolutions of the Arab Spring. Here are their responses:
Jacob Drucker ’14 – Contributing Writer
The Arab Spring is a disaster for Israel. As regimes topple and others are finally forced to listen to their people, anti-Semitism and anti-Israel sentiment is already increasing throughout the Middle East. Instability will undoubtedly ensue: no peace between Israel and another country can outlast that country’s government. More theocratic dictatorships will likely rise in the Middle East, bringing with them fiery anti-Semitic rhetoric and even fierier rocket attacks. And, of course, the one unifying philosophy all Arab countries share is a hatred of Israel. Despotic rulers and democratic revolutionaries in Egypt, Syria, Iran, and a dozen other countries can at least put their differences aside to burn a token Israeli flag or mob the Israeli embassy. Which is undoubtedly bad for Israel.
John Pulice ’15 – Contributing Writer
The Arab Spring means, at its heart, uncertainty and serious concern for Israel. Israel had been fighting every neighbor for decades until the Camp David Accords were signed. The inherent problem that Israel faces is that nations such as Egypt and Jordan, that had been non-aggressors, are now in states of turmoil. It seems fearfully possible that they could once again seek to attack Israel. On the other side, states such as Syria and Lebanon who have actively sought Israel’s demise are also in turmoil. It is unclear whether a full on revolution would in these countries would even improve relations with Israel, while Egypt and Jordan could adopt much more aggressively anti-Israel policies. Israel is in the most compromising situation of recent memory, and especially with the current debate regarding Palestinian statehood at the UN, Israel must tread lightly or its statehood may be actively challenged again.
Gram Slattery ’15 – Contributing Writer
Israel has reason to fear the Arab Spring: the authoritarian regimes of its only Arab allies, Egypt and Jordan, have historically maintained friendly diplomatic relationships against the will of their respective populaces. Thus, as foreign policies slowly align themselves with the will of the people through the process of democratization, the anti-Israeli tinge of the Arab Muslim populations in these countries will chill relations. Still, claims that Israel will be pushed into serious concessions with the Palestinian opposition or into any substantive appeasements toward the Arab world are false. Both Egypt and Jordan’s military power pale in comparison to that of Israel, and Israel’s military and diplomatic bargaining power is, and for the foreseeable future will be, largely a function of the United States’ support of the nation. Thus, while Israel may feel pressured into mild concessions by the deterioration of its immediate diplomatic surroundings, the changing foreign policies of its few benevolent Arab neighbors, will continue to be almost inconsequential in relation to the changing foreign policy of the US. That is to say, America shapes the Israeli-Arab diplomatic playing field, not Israel’s newly democratizing neighbors.
Elsa Kania ’15 – Contributing Writer
The Arab Spring is a reality check for Israel. The status quo is completely unsustainable. That Israel exists is a reality. That it can continue to ignore indefinitely the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people is a delusion. While there is certainly plenty of blame to go around for the persistence of stalemate, Israel’s blatant defiance of international norms—not to mention numerous UN resolutions—has only made the possibility of peace seem more distant. A two-state solution, whatever form it may take, is inevitable, sooner or later. The Arab Spring has only made later sooner than expected. As the geopolitical dynamics the Middle East are completely transformed, Israel can no longer depend upon its traditional allies. Public opinion in the Middle East remains overwhelmingly critical of Israel, and the resurgence of pan-Arabism has increased popular support for the Palestinian cause. The situation has become incredibly unstable, and dynamics are constantly shifting–from the Return to Palestine March, to the attack on the Israeli embassy in Cairo, to the recent prisoner swap. The bubble has popped: Israel must increasingly recognize that it is subject to the same international pressures and constraints that apply to all other 193—perhaps soon to be 194—member states of the UN. In the new Middle East of the Arab Autumn, Israel must commit to working towards peace while finding more sustainable models of engagement with its neighbors and allies.
Sylvia Percovich’ 15 – Contributing Writer
The Arab spring is hailed as a wave of change in the Middle East. Such statements, though, are quite subjective. Not enough time has passed in order for the international community to see what the Arab spring will truly bring, either a new age of democracy or just a new set of authoritarian regimes repacked for our western pleasure. What is clear however is that this uncertainty brings political turmoil to the state of Israel. Old enemies are now led by new faces, who’s desire for peace or war is still unknown. Israel does not know whom to see as their “new” enemy in the region. Not knowing what a country is willing to do or even can do, can push any country and their region to edge, jeopardizing any glimmer of hope the whole event might have had to begin with.
Heather Pickerell ’15 – Contributing Writer
The Arab Spring is a wake up call for Israel. Until now, Israel has been relatively protected by Arab dictatorships who have been bribed by the United States into tolerating dubious Israeli actions against the Palestinians. Despite tentative support from their leadership, the people of these countries have always maintained a strong anti-Israel stance. As these dictators have fallen one by one, tolerance of Israel has also rapidly fallen, as demonstrated by the recent disintegration of relations between Israel and Egypt. However, the success of the Arab Spring must be taken into account as the movement seems to be slowing down given the strength of the Syrian and Bahrainian regimes.
Ben Zhou ’15 – Contributing Writer
As Israel is part of the status quo in the Middle East that the Arab Spring seeks to overlay with a new vision, it’s a cop-out answer to say that the result is unpredictable and dependent on the whims of the unknown faces that will rise to power in these newly restructured states. Yet, Israel is not divorced from the process, with only the ability to react and adapt. Instead, it has a new opportunity to create new relations more conducive to its security than ever before and shape the region. The reason behind Israel’s current precarious position and its history of ineffectual agreements with Palestine is because they negotiated with leaders distant and not accountable to the people they governed. With the advent of the Arab Spring, Israel needs to communicate if nothing else. Unlike the failed “Land for Peace” project that is continually used by Israel-centric authors, concessions made now must be made to the people, not corrupt governments. They must be able to make the sacrifices to create healthy relationships before the concrete settles.
Mikhaila Fogel ’15 – Contributing Writer
The Arab Spring is still in its infancy; its full effect in the realm of global politics is yet to be felt. In Israeli politics, however, it has not only endangered the necessary and borderline sacred Camp David Accords, but has surrounded Israel with unfriendly and autonomous neighbors. Turkey and Mubarak’s Egypt relied on the United States and other Western powers for political and economic viability. As that reliance diminishes, they both have less international pressure to cooperate Israel. Despite this precarious position, Israeli politics have become more conservative, rejecting compromise with Turkey and continuing settlements in the West Bank.
Tightrope walking is nothing new for Israel. In this new age of the Arab Spring, it must learn to walk the tightrope between healthy compromise, and compromising the integrity of the State. Luckily, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel is not endanger of destruction by compromise, but a little leeway will be necessary for stability. The crucial step for Israel in the coming months is to patch up relations with Turkey as much as possible. Turkey, with its democracy and flourishing economy, is poised to become the leader of this new generation of Arab Spring states. If friendly relations with the leader are reestablished, hopefully other countries will follow suit.
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