The Trump presidency has been unprecedented in the worst way, and now it seems to be closing in on a uniquely embarrassing first: Donald Trump is poised to become the first president to be impeached twice. Three Democratic members of the House of Representatives introduced articles of impeachment yesterday against the president for inciting last Wednesday’s insurrection at the Capitol. While Speaker Nancy Pelosi prefers the 25th Amendment as a means to evict Trump from the White House, she has swiftly embraced impeachment as a viable back-up plan.
Trying to force the president out of office ASAP is understandable. Last Wednesday, he gleefully presided over a rally that ended in the ransacking and debasement of a worldwide symbol of democratic government. He triumphantly played commander-in-chief to an army of violent and disgruntled insurrectionists — populated by white supremacists, neo-Nazis, and one West Virginia state lawmaker. His conduct was despicable, and for many, January 6 will go down as the final, dying gasp of the worst presidency in modern American history.
But impeachment is not the silver bullet Democrats, and some Republicans, wish it was. As the first impeachment saga — just more than a year ago — showed, censuring a sitting president and achieving their removal from office requires bipartisan agreement that is rare in the age of polarized government, even when clear evidence of wrongdoing exists. Moreover, the party that begins the push to impeach a president risks backlash from voters and the opposing party. Most importantly, as the newly-crowned party in power, Democrats will soon begin the task of picking up the debris of President Trump’s reign — a task that deserves their undivided attention.
The Case Against Impeachment
To begin, Democrats have a limited timeframe. The House could approve articles of impeachment with a majority vote as early as Wednesday. However, the Senate will convene only for minutes-long, “pro forma” sessions until January 19, the day before Biden’s inauguration. During pro forma sessions, the chamber cannot act on any articles of impeachment unless all 100 senators agree to begin a trial. Achieving agreement on anything from 100 senators is effectively impossible; if a bill to make lynching a federal crime couldn’t pass by unanimous consent, then expecting all 51 Republican senators to abandon a president who 78% of Republicans still approve of is fantasy.
The upshot is that the chances of actually removing President Trump before January 20 are slim. It is much more likely that an impeachment trial in the Senate would drag on until after Joe Biden is already inaugurated. In the eyes of some Democrats, impeaching and attempting to convince at least 16 Republicans to convict Trump would still be a worthy endeavor because the Constitution stipulates that the Senate can vote post-conviction to disqualify an impeached official from ever holding public office. The prospect of averting MAGA 3.0 has Democrats, and perhaps a few Republican presidential hopefuls, salivating. Yet this possibility could be as difficult to achieve as removing the president from office before January 20.
In the three instances where the Senate has ever barred a government official from holding office, it was agreed that a simple majority of senators would suffice to end an impeached official’s political career. But notably, the Constitution does not specify whether such decisions require a simple majority or a supermajority — the typical two-thirds vote required for the Senate to remove an official from office. This option, then, leaves the door open for Trump to launch a legal blitz in 2024 to ensure his name appears on the Republican primary ballot. Furthermore, no legal avenue can prevent Trump from simply choosing a surrogate candidate — Donald Jr., perhaps — to carry on the Trump political dynasty.
Beyond its implications for Trump’s political future, a Senate impeachment trial would guarantee that the center of gravity in Washington D.C. would still lie firmly wherever Donald Trump is sitting, with the news cycle continuing to revolve around his every statement, movement, or post. Inevitably, the appearance of a rushed impeachment process would prompt familiar accusations from the GOP that Democrats were violating the Constitution, pursuing political vendettas, and ultimately only dividing the country further. The last of these three criticisms has the most standing and points to the most important reason why impeachment should be shelved.
Joe Biden has promised to be a president for all Americans, yet more than half of Republicans aren’t even convinced that he won his office legitimately. He will enter office after the most rancorous transition in recent memory — at a time when cross-party animosity is sky high, and a rising portion of both parties endorses the use of violence to achieve political goals. Impeaching President Trump will not reverse or mitigate any of these trends, but it could cast a pall over President-elect Biden’s promise to help heal the nation’s wounds.
Impeachment would have policy ramifications as well, which the president-elect is well aware of. Meanwhile, as Democrats (rightly) warn of the dangers of an unhinged president, an already well-established threat is killing thousands of Americans every day. The day after insurrectionists donned horned costumes but not masks, and Republican House members declined to mask up in close quarters, the U.S. recorded more than 4,000 daily deaths from the coronavirus for the first time. The vaccine rollout has been sluggish, a new COVID variant could exacerbate the crisis, and Americans continue to struggle to put food on the table. The Senate should be in session not to hold an impeachment trial but to confront the fact that in December, one in eight American adults reported going hungry during the previous week.
Declining to impeach does not mean eschewing accountability. In a column for The New Yorker, Benjamin Wallace-Wells rightly noted that impunity has been the defining feature of the Trump presidency. An end to impunity, however, will not come with impeachment. A much better bet to deliver consequences for the president’s actions is the legal system, where state investigations are already underway. Instead of pursuing a symbolic slap on the wrist, Democrats should let the legal system do its very best to put Trump behind bars, and refocus on reforming the office he so willingly exploited and offering Americans the best possible antidote to the Trump years: competent government.
Image Credit: “Impeach Trump Now No Ban No Wall” by Master Steve Rapport is licensed under CC BY 2.0.
