Is the European Project Stalled?

The Future Prospects of E.U. Enlargement
As the Eurozone crisis drags on, many are questioning whether the very essence of the European project has been jeopardized.
The European Union’s capacity to absorb new member states seems particularly imperiled, as E.U. enlargement has slowed recently, even grinding to a halt.  Though the economic crisis has certainly played a significant role in stalling expansion, it is important not to lose sight of long-term geopolitical and cultural considerations. Overall, though some countries have decided to tentatively remain outside the European Union for political or economic reasons, many obstacles toward expansion come from within the organization itself.
Holding Off Membership
Some slowdown can be attributed to waning desires and growing doubts about membership within candidate countries, sentiments that are perhaps most pronounced in Turkey. As Hilmi Güvenal, a prominent Istanbul businessman, points out for the HPR, the majority of Turkey’s population is Islamic and nationalistic. Hence, Güvenal says, “being independent [from Western influence] and having good relations with other Muslim countries sells better in the domestic market than accepting the harsh membership conditions of the E.U.,” a multilateral entity viewed as a “Christian club” in the Middle East. According to Güvenal, the current crisis per se has not significantly affected Turkish desire for E.U. membership yet. Rather, the decreasing economic disparity over the past decade between a rapidly modernizing Turkey and an increasingly stagnant E.U. has become more evident, and this fact, more than the crisis itself, has reduced Turkish support for membership. Meanwhile, Turkey has rediscovered its position as a geopolitical superpower in the Middle East, asserting itself as a bridge between the West and Arab world, a vastly more appealing position for Ankara than that of a peripheral E.U. member.
Despite the decline of Turkey’s E.U. aspirations, the prospect of joining the single market and integrating fully into Europe remains attractive for many smaller countries, especially in the Western Balkans. In Croatia, despite the “deep impact” that the Eurozone crisis has had on public perceptions of E.U. membership, former Croatian foreign minister Miomir Žužul observes that Croatians did approve E.U. accession in a referendum this past January. Žužul notes that the prospect of accessing the concrete benefits of E.U. membership remains relatively attractive. Furthermore, many Croatians view E.U. membership as a “homecoming,” whereby Croatia can rejoin the Western European community that it has historically had significant ties with. Croatia’s neighbors, including countries like Serbia, Macedonia and Albania have thus far been undeterred by the crisis, each having made E.U. accession an important foreign policy priority. However, these countries still face significant political and economic hurdles. For example, Albania’s political stalemate following its June 2009 elections prevents it from being recognized as an official candidate by the European Union, and Bosnia is still very fragile fifteen years after rampant ethnic conflict.
Internal Divisions
Though individual candidate states have issues delaying accession, most of the slowdown can be attributed to factors within the E.U. itself. According to Harvard professor Grzegorz Ekiert, an expert in Eastern European E.U. politics, the Eurozone crisis has sharpened the sense of “enlargement fatigue” in Brussels. Given the economic woes of Greece and other debt laden states, these nations may soon avidly pursue the E.U.’s generous structural funds, in addition to the bailouts already dispensed. When even existing members are exorbitantly expensive to support, the E.U. will think twice before admitting new members.
Žužul further highlights internal disputes within the E.U., noting that since the mid-1990s, the E.U. has been split into two factions regarding the Balkans.  One faction felt that Croatia should “remain tied with the Balkans” due to its position as “the only stable actor in a historically troubled region,” and hence advocated simultaneous accession for all the Balkan countries. The other favored approaching accession on a nation by nation basis. Žužul claims that disagreements between these two groups were the “chief cause” in delays to Croatia’s accession, because they ended up imposing “far stricter procedures and requirements for Croatia’s membership” than had been the case for previous members.
Future Concerns
Longer-term geopolitical and cultural factors must also be considered. Ekiert, paraphrasing well-known scholar Jacques Rupnik, claims that “the E.U. is reaching its geopolitical limits.” Russia considers the Caucasus region, Belarus, and Ukraine to be firmly within its sphere of influence and severely opposes any prospect of E.U. membership for these nations. The Putin administration disapproves of even mere attempts by those countries to cooperate more closely with the European community.
Furthermore, though cultural disputes are significant taboos in E.U. circles, Ekiert notes there is a view in Brussels that the Western Balkans is the only remaining area that is “culturally European.”  From this school of thought, a preliminary consensus is emerging between France and Germany that the Mediterranean basin, including Turkey, does not belong in the E.U. The huge populations of Turkey and Ukraine would also guarantee them large representation in the European institutions, which operate on proportional representation. The current core European countries are unlikely to yield their substantial existing influence to the prospective newcomers.
For the short term, E.U. enlargement will be delayed for at least several years. Ekiert and Žužul concur that Croatia will be the last country admitted for some time, with the possible exception of Iceland, which due to its tiny size and its pre-existing compliance with most E.U. requirements should be easy to integrate. During this severe crisis, enlargement is a low priority for the E.U., and as a senior German politician notes, “the efficiency of E.U. institutions must be improved first,” before any further enlargement can be considered.
But beyond that, the great era of European expansion may be reaching its twilight, and the (eventual) admittance of the Western Balkan countries will, in all likelihood, demarcate the final limit of E.U. expansion. Limited free trade agreements notwithstanding, it now looks as if the inhabitants of Turkey, Ukraine, and the Caucasus countries will forever be left out of Europe’s great political and economic experiment.