Introduction
Since arriving at Harvard College, I have repeatedly heard the following question from my classmates: “Are you registered to vote?”
As before, the 2024 presidential election has pushed my home state, Michigan, back into the national spotlight. Every other fall I am reminded that my home state is viewed as one of America’s tensest political battlegrounds by those outside of it.
In 2016, former President Donald Trump won the state of Michigan by 0.3% of the total vote of 4,548,382 votes cast. In 2020, President Joe Biden prevailed over Trump by 2.8% of the 5,453,892 votes cast for either Trump or Biden. From these examples, it is fair to assume that the 2024 presidential results from Michigan will be close. Yet, this leaves a critical question: which counties have been, and will be the deciders of this election? The answer rests in the three Michigan counties of Kent, Leelanau, and Saginaw. The swing voters in these counties determined the winner of Michigan’s 16 electoral votes in 2020, and they will likely do the same for Michigan’s 15 in 2024. Examining their perceptions of the issues impacting their county and state hints at where they will swing at the ballot box on election day.
Kent County
This former Republican stronghold has gradually bled purple over the past few presidential elections. The majority of the county voted for former President Barack Obama in 2008 and Sen. Mitt Romney in 2012. In 2016 the county gave 48.3% of their vote to Trump and 45.2% to Hillary Clinton. However, in 2020, 52.1% was awarded to Biden and 45.9% to Trump. The relatively recent shift away from Republican candidates, especially during the 2022 midterms, has been attributed to voter fatigue around Trump’s cartoonish republicanism. This is further evidenced by the county’s support for Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer and the Democratic nominee, Hillary Scholten, for their third congressional district.
Heading into the 2024 election, one of the county’s top issues is housing. Homelessness has increased by 70% since 2019, and residents are increasingly concerned over their rapidly rising rent. Media coverage often attributes the state of the economy and interest rates to the party currently holding the presidency. Yet in actuality, both the interest rates and the number of homes available on the market are entirely out of Biden and Harris’ control.
The negative perceptions surrounding the availability of affordable homes may be a bad sign for the Harris campaign. As the election tightens and early voting begins, voters will not spend hours researching bureaucratic economic practices. Along with many other Americans, they will reflect on the cost of living, consider which political party might make amenities more affordable, and vote accordingly. Due to the messaging in the media, Trump will likely prevail when Americans decide whose presidency will create more financial security. As such, Kent’s less-than-optimistic view on the economy and the housing market may be the issue that moves Michigan’s political needle back to red in November.
Leelanau County
Leelanau, or the “Hamptons of the Midwest,” is another county Joe Biden flipped last election. Trump received 49.1% to Clinton’s 45.9% of the vote in 2016 and Biden earned 52% to Trump’s 46.8% in 2020. Before Biden’s victory, the county had not voted for a Democratic nominee since former President Barack Obama’ in 2008. So why did this northern Michigan county of less than 24,000 residents make the switch in 2020? What should the Harris and Trump campaigns do to win them over or keep their support?
Leelanau is the wealthiest county in Michigan, with miles of lakefront property and tourist attractions. During the pandemic, Leelanau saw an influx of residents from urban areas looking for refuge as they conducted their work remotely. This population change is why some believe the county shifted blue for Biden in 2020. However, Leelanau residents are wary of the rising cost of living, an issue Trump has promised to address.
The economy is the top issue for the majority of voters. Specifically, inflation remains at the top of peoples’ minds across the state and nation. Although inflation rates are slowing, Americans have yet to feel that impact. Leelanau County has some of the country’s highest grocery prices and many are unable to enjoy the scenic area while they struggle to make ends meet. Additionally, Trump is pushing a narrative that depicts Democrats as unwilling to address inflation, while he vows that it would disappear if he is reelected. This narrative, although exaggerated, is appealing to swing voters, especially those in Leelanau.
Saginaw County
Saginaw County, the third flipped county, is located a few hours northeast of Detroit and is close to Lake Huron’s Saginaw Bay. Saginaw voted for Trump in 2016, 48.3% to 47.1%, and Biden in 2020, 49.4% to 49.1%. The margins in this county could not be any closer. Currently, the county is concerned with high crime rates in the area — 79% higher than the national average. More specifically, residents are concerned over the rampant gun violence in the area and the state as a whole. Both the 2021 Oxford High School Shooting and the 2023 Michigan State University shooting left Michiganders shaken, scared, and searching for solutions to curb gun violence. As such, voters may be looking towards the candidate toughest on crime and most insistent on stricter gun control. On one hand, Harris, a past prosecutor and Attorney General, worked with President Joe Biden to pass a 2022 gun control law that expanded background checks and gun safety education. Trump, on the other hand, offers a more hands-off approach to gun control and asserting that gun control laws are ineffective. He aligns himself with the National Rifle Association from which he has received millions in campaign donations and an official endorsement of his candidacy.
In July, two Saginaw teenagers were critically injured after being shot while sitting in their car. In late August, a fifteen-year-old resident of the county, Khalil Harris, was shot and killed. Parents are tired of worrying every day if their children will return home safe — every parent in America is. With so much frustration around crime, especially gun violence, in the area, local attitudes towards elected officials’ stances on gun control and crime may be enough to shift the vote once again. How candidates approach this delicate issue may play a large part in determining how people vote in just a few weeks. Harris’s approach is to maintain clarity on her gun control policies. Trump is aggressive and steadfast in supporting the right to own firearms. With so many residents in Saginaw personally affected by gun violence, they may be drifting further from Trump and more towards the background checks and increased regulations promised by a Harris presidency.
Conclusion
Next week, the role of Michigan voters, like myself, will once again be pivotal in determining the next occupant of the White House. Both Trump and Harris have been spending considerable time in the Great Lakes State, hosting rallies in all three counties and making speeches in major cities. With the stakes high and the margins close, every event has the potential to appeal to voters regarding housing, inflation, and crime. One thing is for sure: All eyes will return to Michigan on Nov. 5.
