Netanyahu: The Dilemma.

Benjamin Netanyahu is the current and ninth prime minister of Israel. He assumed office in March 2009. Upon contemplation of what Netanyahu has accomplished during the first half of his term with regards to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, one can only answer: “nothing substantial.” As to the second half of his term, we will likely be facing two more years of nothingness.

In terms of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, little or nothing has been accomplished since March 2009. In fact, Netanyahu’s most prominent actions can be summarized in a short paragraph. He froze building settlements for 10 months, then he approved additional construction of settlements, and now he is pushing for direct talks – with existing preconditions. But the Palestinian side is also pushing back with their preconditions. Neither party is willing to compromise. Let the gridlock ensue.
Netanyahu’s government isn’t the easiest to deal with anyway. He is the Chairman of Likud Party – it is the major right-wing political party in Israel. Also as part of the current coalition government are Yisrael Beiteinu, The Jewish Home, and United Torah Judaism, all of which are extreme right-wing parties. Small parties such as United Torah Judaism tend to play an important role in the performance of a coalition government, playing a disproportionate role in politics. In hopes of promoting a radical political agenda, these parties often exploit their status in the government. This leaves Netanyahu scrambling to meet every party’s agenda lest they vote no-confidence in the government.
In addition to the pressure of coalition parties, the general public, especially those who voted for a right-wing government, expect results. Their expectations differ from those of the left-wing public. Some ask for further settlement construction/invasion, and some expect Netanyahu to strip Hamas of its powers in Palestine. Such expectations are further developed and executed by small-sized parties in the coalition. If Netanyahu manages to satisfy the needs of his voters, his chances are looking good for a second term re-election.
As elections loom near, Netanyahu will have two options: a) opt out and walk away in peace as he spends his last few years in power stalling and buying time in negotiations, and b) engage in war “against terror” and/or push for settlements building in order to buy votes for re-elections.
Netanyahu is facing a difficult decision. On the one hand, he is obliged as a leader to preserve his government against a no-confidence vote by small parties, and on the other hand, he acknowledges the dire implications of a military engagement with Hamas. Any potential war at this point is most likely to involve more than two parties as tension between Israel and other neighboring countries such as Syria and Lebanon is mounting.
With the approval of building 13,000 additional housing units after the 10-month-long freeze in the West Bank and Eastern Jerusalem, one can predict the “undesirably predictable.” Sadly enough, the unjustified act of settlement building could possibly spur a Palestinian reaction led by major military forces such as Hamas. Any resulting war would be catastrophic especially for Palestine.
It is safe to suggest from the above indicators that Netanyahu’s government is heading towards the second option during his two remaining years. Building more settlements will only worsen the situation, and Palestinians aren’t very thrilled about it, to say the least.
As we welcome the beginning of 2011, as settlers are being welcomed into their new homes, and as Netanyahu considers buying votes and satisfying partners, let’s pray we don’t reach a devastating outcome.