Nigeria: The Next African Problem

Ethnic tension in Nigeria may become Africa’s next big problem with the results of the 2011 presidential election.
Nigeria made major strides in the presidential election held on April 16th. In comparison to 2007’s disaster election that international pundits claimed was “the worst they had ever seen anywhere in the world,” the 2011 election was actually quite clean. The press claims that last week’s voting process was one of the fairest seen on the African continent for decades– a fantastic step taken by the largest country on the world’s poorest and perhaps most corrupt continent. Yet once again, it appears as though the world may be reminded that elections do not always seem to work out for developing nations.
Current President Goodluck Jonathan was named the winner in what will be an extremely controversial electoral result. Nigeria has a “gentleman’s agreement” of sorts that states that the presidency should rotate between the north (Muslim) and south (Christian) every two terms, a consociationalist system that more or less undermines the extent of Nigerian democracy. After Olusegun Obasanjo (southerner) held the presidency in 1999 and 2003, the office was supposed to switch to northern control. It did, corruptly, in 2007 with the election of Umaru Yar’Adua. However, Yar’Adua’s death in 2010 thrust his northern vice president, Jonathan, into the presidency in a turnover ripe with controversy. Northern politicians were outraged at the perceived violation of the north-south rule, yet no one was willing to amend the “gentleman’s agreement” into the constitution.
Jonathan promptly appointed a southern vice president to appease the criticism from the north, but his announcement of his intention to run for re-election revived some of the north-south tension back in September. His re-election will likely cause further tensions between the divisive regions. After the announcement of the results there were violent protests in the nation’s northern states. Nigeria’s unstable neighbor Cote D’ivoire has already created enough problems in the region and Africa, and the world does not need a nation of 150 million breaking into large scale internal strife over election results. Sadly, I think that Jonathan’s election will provide extremists in the north, particularly those associated with the Hausa region, with a means of further stirring up tension along ethnic lines. The last three months have shown how ugly ethnic tension is and I see the potential for conflict in Nigeria.
Ideally, the early protests will quiet down and the rest of the post-election period will be peaceful. Jonathan will continue with his attempts at reform (although he really has not done a lot while in office and is mainly popular because he hails from the militant Delta region and is seen as a possible solution to the terrorist activities of MEND that plague that region), and Nigeria will continue to develop as a leading example of progress in Africa. Unfortunately, I don’t think that’s what’s in store.  Rather, I fear another bout of ethnic conflict may be nearing in northern Africa.
Photocredit: Wikimedia Commons