The North Carolina polls and their twists and turns have mirrored the ups and downs of this tumultuous election cycle. Day after day, new surveys appear suggesting that either nominee has gained the upper hand within the state — albeit always by a lead within the margin of error. Needless to say, North Carolina has been hard to pin down, especially with the margins between the candidates closing across all swing states and the excitement of Harris’s initial surge finally drying up.
North Carolina isn’t a traditional swing state. It has only been won once by a Democratic nominee in over 40 years by President Obama in 2008. However, the state has trended blue,
with Trump winning by 75,000 votes in 2020, which he had previously won by over 170,000 votes in 2016. The rate of urban population growth in North Carolina has increased substantially due to the growing tech and life science industries in cities like Charlotte. With one of the fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the country and a rise in highly educated voters — a key constituency for Democrats — North Carolina has become a far more competitive battleground for those looking to flip the state blue.
While the issues North Carolinians care about align with the broader pulse of the nation, a controversial gubernatorial candidate, a natural disaster, and a unique demographic composition make it a state that isn’t easily calculable.
A common thread that aligns North Carolina with other swing states is that its voters are prioritizing the economy and inflation as their main concerns. However, immigration is also a significant priority for North Carolinians. A late September poll conducted by Marist found that immigration, aside from inflation and democracy, was the central issue North Carolina voters cared about, outranking even abortion in terms of importance.
At least one member of the state’s Democratic congressional delegation has taken heed of this. Democratic incumbent Rep. Don Davis was notably one of the few members of his party who voted with Republicans in condemning VP Harris’s handling of border security in July. He is running for North Carolina’s only truly competitive district. Evident in his ineffectual, yet telling vote, is the central space immigration occupies in swing voters’ minds in North Carolina.
It has also been a state rocked by headline-inducing natural disasters and political scandals in recent weeks — making an ever-competitive and diverse state even more of a wild card.
Lieutenant Governor and current Republican gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson has been plagued with controversy, most notably for referring to himself as a “Black NAZI” on a pornographic website. In a town hall in Fayetteville, North Carolina, former President Trump did not mention Robinson — whom he had previously endorsed as “Martin Luther King on steroids” — in an attempt to distance himself from Robinson’s comments. While it’s worth noting that down-ballot races have been shown to have little effect on voters’ decisions in national elections, it is clear that Robinson’s scandals are providing unwanted negative attention to Republican operatives in the state.
Hurricane Helene has also disrupted usual election proceedings. While election workers are working to stabilize voting for those hardest hit by the extreme weather, Trump and some of his affiliates have politicized the issue by spreading disinformation about FEMA and its operations. The Charlotte News and Observer reported that Trump has “ falsely claimed that FEMA is only giving Helene survivors $750 in assistance.” While FEMA does provide this amount as initial emergency funds, it often offers additional support afterward. However, affected counties have since shown remarkably high turnout rates during the early voting period, suggesting the recent disaster may not have had as significant an impact as anticipated.
Recent developments aside, the state’s shifting demographic balance will likely be the factor that determines to which candidate it will deliver its 16 electoral votes. North Carolina is the most rural of the battleground states and the second most rural state in the nation. Voters in these regions are often the most reliable supporters of Republican politics, with Trump winning over 60% of the vote in rural areas in 2020 while suffering in urban areas and in the suburbs.
Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz, and other Democratic surrogates, have campaigned in urban areas on behalf of Harris, emphasizing issues like broadband and healthcare access in an attempt to reduce the margin of Republican votes in the region. This builds on years of work by local parties to change minds and build campaign capacity. North Carolina Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton told a local news outlet that “There was existing infrastructure in this state. It just needed to be revived,” emphasizing the active organizing the party is conducting to convince these staunch yet persuadable voters. Experts have noted that Democratic infrastructure in these areas has gained renewed life, with some expressing that it may even rival Obama’s outreach efforts in 2008.
Still, there is little chance even a vigorous barnstorming will flip the rural vote in any significant way. Republican Party leaders, like the state’s party chairman Jason Simmons, have emphasized their own statewide approach to strategizing in North Carolina, citing successes in expanding their voter base. The voter registration advantage that once favored Democrats has diminished since the 2020 election, especially in North Carolina. The Hill reports that Democratic voter advantage has, “shrunk from 393,000 voters in 2020 to approximately 130,000 voters in 2024,” a trend seen in other swing states as well. Some Democratic strategists argue this doesn’t necessarily spell trouble for Democratic candidates, as many of the new registrants may be unaffiliated. However, in a state that liberals haven’t often won, it is a worrying prospect for Democratic candidates and a hopeful one for Republicans.
North Carolina’s role in the upcoming election mirrors the broader uncertainties facing the nation. While economic issues and concerns around heightened prices dominate discussions, the state’s evolving political landscape underscores how truly unpredictable this new battleground is. In a state where neither party holds a clear advantage, campaigns are laser-focused on every vote. Democratic operatives are working to diminish Republican support in rural areas and to turn traditional red voters blue. With each new development — whether it’s a natural disaster, a political scandal, or a shift in polling — North Carolina reflects the nuanced battle being fought in swing states across the country. Ultimately, the state’s electoral outcome will serve as a key barometer for the election’s final result, revealing whether the blue shift driven by growing urban populations will continue, or if Republicans will maintain their hold on the Tarheel State into the future.
Managing Editor
