Susan Collins, incumbent in Maine’s 2020 U.S. Senate race, paints herself as the socially liberal voter’s ideal Republican: in favor of abortion rights, LGBTQIA+ rights, and education funding. She mostly delivers on her promises and is regarded as a solidly centrist Republican. But she shocked her moderate base with her vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh in 2018 after pledging not to fill a vacant Supreme Court seat with a justice who would threaten Roe v. Wade.
The Kavanaugh vote has proven a broken promise on women’s rights, and not just because Collins chose not to stand with Christine Blasey Ford. Kavanaugh’s history as a judge reveals hostility to Roe, and his vote in June Medical Services LLC v. Russo earlier this year confirms his willingness to overturn precedent in order to restrict abortion access.
The empty seat on the bench left by the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg is a painful reminders of Collins’ betrayal, further threatening her already uncertain bid for reelection. In a plea for support from her moderate base, she promised to vote against any nominee put forward by President Trump before the election, and her ad campaign clings desperately to her old “pro-women” reputation. All the while, challenger Sara Gideon, currently serving her second term as speaker of the Maine House of Representatives, leads in most polls.
Both candidates face a tough race because of the state’s currently shifting voter preferences. For example, some elderly Mainers who voted Republican in the 2016 presidential and senatorial election will now consider voting for a Democrat because they fear Trump’s pandemic policy. On the other hand, moderates who would have voted against Collins on the abortion issue may hesitate because she co-authored the Payroll Protection Plan which saved many small businesses while Gideon and the state legislature did nothing after adjourning in March.
To add to the complexity, Maine has been a state divided since the “90s — Henry Joy proposed in 1998 and again in 2005 to split the state into two — and the rift is widening. Southern Maine is increasingly urban, wealthy, and young, while northern Maine is aging, White, skeptical of federal power and either Republican or centrist.
Collins has trod a fine line between staunch Republicans and moderates on both sides of the party line since her first election in 1996. She stepped too far to the right with her Kavanaugh vote, offering Gideon her moderate northern Maine base — but Gideon’s cookie-cutter Democratic platform leaves northern Maine out in the cold.
Gideon reads as the Democratic Party’s darling, chosen by national actors to get Collins out. As of Aug. 10, she had received $3.8 million from political action committees in a race funded primarily by out-of-state dollars. Some were miffed by her refusal to participate in a primary debate, and Collins jumped on this dissatisfaction with a statement that Gideon was simply following U.S. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s strategy of avoiding constituent scrutiny. Northern Mainers, who take pride in their freedoms and cling tightly to the power of local government, do not take kindly to this kind of national meddling in local politics. It does not help that Gideon is an out-of-stater herself. A native Rhode Islander, she cannot boast the same connection to Maine communities as Collins — born and raised in Caribou, about as far north as you can get.
By embodying the current Democratic status quo, Gideon has done little to combat her generic Democrat image which, although it may appeal to a southern Maine — or “northern Massachusetts” — base, alienates other residents of a state that prides itself on individuality. Ultimately, the race remains a toss-up, and whoever wins the moderates will take the prize. Although northern Maine now leans toward Biden, Gideon cannot rely on a Collins-Trump association to motivate voters. In the final stretch, she must find her own appeal to the northern Maine moderate.
Luckily, Gideon has a model to turn to. In a clear parallel to the Gideon-Collins race, Mainer Jared Golden defeated Republican incumbent Bruce Poliquin in 2018 to win a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. In 2018 and again in 2020, Golden has emphasized his cultural connection to the state and independence from his party. In a recent advertisement, he sports jeans and an army green flannel as he leaves his house in Maine, where an American flag hangs prominently, to commute to Washington in his pickup truck. “I don’t drive all that way for partisan fights,” he says over a pop-country guitar riff as the words “One of the Most Independent Members of Congress” appear on screen. “I work for you.” Co-opting some aspects of Golden’s persona would help Gideon to appear a little less polished and a little more down-to-earth.
So would co-opting some of his policy stances. Broadly, Gideon must emphasize issues important to Maine. Take the “Priorities” section of her campaign site in comparison to Golden’s “Issues” section. Gideon puts “Reforming Washington,” “Health Care,” and “Taxes” first, reflecting the current national Democratic platform. Golden, on the other hand, focuses on “Workers and Unions,” “Maine’s Heritage Industries,” and “Small Business,” issues near and dear to Maine residents.
Further, Gideon would be well served by a shift away from her current support for tighter gun control policies with a promise not to significantly restrict gun access, a critical issue for hunters and other voters who oppose government intervention in private life. This change would prove to moderates she is willing to represent her base, not her party. Golden, once again, provides a good example: He emphasizes Maine’s “tradition of responsible gun ownership,” and his votes ensure Mainers continued gun access.
Gideon is far from perfect, but with the Senate majority up for grabs, she needs to be electable. If Donald Trump wins the presidential election, a Republican majority will allow him to continue filling courts from District to Supreme with conservative judges who will shape the law for a generation. If Joe Biden wins, a Republican majority will stall meaningful reform. Either way, there is too much at stake for Gideon to gamble on a purely Democratic base: She must win on-the-fence moderates to secure the seat in November.
Photo by Mercedes Mehling is licensed under the Unsplash License.
