Nevada stands out among the seven key swing states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Unlike North Carolina, won by Republicans in both of the previous elections, and the other five notable swing states, all of which flipped from a 2016 Trump victory to 2020 Biden one, Nevada went blue in both of these instances. Why, then, is Nevada still considered a swing state this year?
The answer lies in the details. Margins of victory for Democratic presidential candidates have been following a downward trend in Nevada for several election cycles. Democrats won the state by 12.5 percentage points in 2008, 6.7 points in 2012, and then 2.4 points in both 2016 and 2020. That margins remained very competitive in the state in 2020 is especially significant given that Democrats enjoyed a higher margin nationwide in 2020 compared to 2016, where they won the popular vote by 4.4 points compared to 2.1 points.
Nevada’s domestic politics help explain its recent rightward shift. In the 2022 Gubernatorial election, Republican Joe Lombardo, sheriff of Clark County, defeated incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak by 48.8% to 47.4%. Lombardo campaigned on the platform of revitalizing the state’s economy, restoring law and order, and bringing more accountability and school choice to the state’s education system. Currently, the governor still enjoys relatively high popularity in Nevada as indicated by a 57% approval rating and only 26% disapproval.
Likewise, in the 2022 Nevada Senate election, incumbent Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto won extremely narrowly, with a margin of less than 8,000 votes. This razor-sharp victory contrasts with her first election to the Senate in 2016, which she won by over 26,000 votes. Cortez Masto was attacked most vehemently on the issue of the economy, with inflation playing a large role. Her opponent, former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt, faced criticism over the issue of abortion, where his views were seen as too restrictive. Laxalt has publicly stated that the Roe v. Wade decision was “a joke” and expressed support for a state referendum on a strict 13-week abortion ban. The contours of this race demonstrates the salience of these issues in the upcoming Presidential election.
Criticisms of Cortez Masto with regard to the economy reflect a broader nationwide weakness on the issue for Democrats. This is particularly concerning for the party as the economy seems posed to be the most pressing issue for Nevadans in this election, with 40% naming it to be the issue most motivating them to vote, followed by abortion at 17%, immigration at 7%, and gun control at 7%. Nevada has the highest unemployment in the country at 5.4% compared to the national average of 4.2%. Voters have identified inflation as their top concern with Harris. Concerns over high costs of living have been a primary cause for Harris’s faltering popularity among Latino voters, who make up 20% of Nevada’s constituency.
A major reason why inflation has proven detrimental to the Harris campaign is that a majority of Americans reported that they are worse off today than four years ago. This discontent is due in large part to inflation, with 62% of respondents expressing that the economy was “getting worse” compared to 32% who felt it was “getting better.” Only 39% reported feeling “better off” economically, compared to 55% in 2020.
Another important issue in this election cycle is immigration. Lombardo was among 25 Republican governors who publicly criticized the Biden-Harris administration over its handling of the border in a letter that lamented the nearly 530,000 immigrants from Haiti, Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua who have entered the U.S. under Biden. The letter questioned the Department of Homeland Security’s capacity for “robust security vetting” under Democratic leadership and accused the administration of running a “poorly administered” asylum program. Although polling has shown that 71% of Nevadans favor strengthening the border, voters often take a less hardline position on immigration than offered by Republican party leaders; indeed, 65% preferred creating more legal pathways for undocumented immigrants to gain citizenship while only 24% preferred mass deportations.
Moreover, abortion is a particularly pertinent issue in this election cycle in Nevada, as an amendment protecting abortion rights will be on the state ballot and polling has demonstrated that 70% of Republicans and 90% of Democrats in the state are against the criminalization of abortion at any stage. The issue of abortion likely has a much greater potential to influence and inspire voters in this presidential election as compared to previous ones due to the overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022. Abortion’s salience in the election as a whole, and especially in swing states like Nevada, explains the Harris campaign’s outspoken promise to restore the rights guaranteed under Roe.
Recent polling has shown the impact of these trends and issues on the election in Nevada. As of Oct. 13, Harris led Trump in the state by only 0.1% when averaged across several polls, drawing 48% of the vote compared to Trump’s 47.9%. This trend of a slim lead for Harris has persisted since late August.
Examining a geographical breakdown of the state, the election will likely come down to the results in two of Nevada’s counties: Washoe County, home to Reno; and Clark County, home to Las Vegas. Combined, these counties make up almost 90% of the state’s population and were the only two of Nevada’s 17 counties to be won by Democrats in 2016 and 2020. While the major cities themselves generally vote blue, voter registration statistics show that the counties as a whole are closer to being evenly split in terms of partisanship, demonstrating the moderating effect of the suburbs. That all other counties went red in the previous two elections further underscores the importance of these large cities in the election.
Both presidential campaigns have invested heavily in Nevada, holding rallies in both Reno and Las Vegas. In a September rally in Las Vegas, Harris focused on her plans for the economy, policies to build more housing, and promised to go further in cracking down on illegal border crossings while appealing directly to Latinos. Trump, on the other hand, emphasized the urgency of voting, called for more drilling and fracking, claimed support from labor unions, and raised the issue of border control at a rally in Reno.
The close nature of the race in Nevada reflects both a long-term rightward shift of a state that has voted for Democrats in the past four Presidential elections, and highlights the newfound salience of certain issues that will likely determine the result of the 2024 election. While the issue of inflation appears to be a weak point for Harris, and abortion a vulnerability for Trump, views on immigration among Nevadans are less clear-cut. Ultimately, the results on Election Day will come as a product of several issues and trends as well as a high amount of focus and effort from both campaigns.
