So I have not yet gotten around to Obama’s alleged secret note to Russian President Medvedev. In it, he seems to propose a quid pro quo, wherein the United States would agree to roll back our plans for a missile defense shield in Poland. Of course, since our missile defense shield is targeted towards Iran, we couldn’t go about stopping until we know that Iran is not going to have the Bomb.
Now, Medvedev obviously is going to say that in no way is Russia going to “haggle” over its security. Just as if he were actually elected President, he needs to make certain democratic gestures towards his population. He can’t look as though he is actually willing to negotiate over large prestige issues, lest he draw flack from hardliners. The same reason Obama’s note was secret and hand-delivered; he doesn’t want to look squishy for the same reason.
But to be realistic: Russia is every bit as invested in the international system as we are, if not more. It’s not the Soviet Union; it is absolutely dependent on a stable international trade regime in order to forestall the collapse of its economy. In terms of large-scale geopolitical alignment, I can’t be any more clear: Russia. Is. On. Our. Side. They can’t afford a new Cold War, and neither can we. Bush, and Medvedev, were merely posturing for their populations. Our interests, and Russia, align very closely, aside from their interest in influencing Georgia, Ukraine, and the Baltic States. But I’d suggest that thinking America has a real interest in Ukraine stems from a real misconception of what American interests entail.
Do we really want to tie American prestige to that “teetering” mess of a country?
