April 10, 2024 was no ordinary night for the central Pennsylvania political scene. As Congressman Scott Perry, R-Pa., sat in the comfort of his unopposed primary race, six Democrats took to the debate stage, all vying to be the candidate who might finally unseat the six-term incumbent.
This uncharacteristically competitive Democratic primary, and the emergence of former news anchor Janelle Stelson as the winning candidate, encapsulate the spirit of political uncertainty that has been growing in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional district. Now, Scott Perry’s detractors, ranging from party-line Democrats to independents to even moderate Republicans, believe that the district is ready for change.
Whether this coalition has landed on a winning strategy remains an open question, but it is clear that PA-10 voters are at a critical juncture for their district and, in many ways, the country. Strategists and officials alike should be watching what these voters decide in November.
Still a Swing District? The Electoral Context of PA-10
For his first three terms as Congressman, Scott Perry cruised to victory without fail. In his district that was once a conservative stronghold, landslide Republican victories were all but inevitable. It was in these early years that Perry established his electorally successful brand, one that he maintains to this day: a veteran who was raised in the district and is in touch with his constituents.
But in 2018, a court-mandated redistricting of the state nearly proved detrimental to Perry’s political future. Democratic challenger George Scott came within just three percentage points of defeating the Congressman that cycle. In an interview with the HPR, Berwood Yost, Director of the Franklin and Marshall College Center for Opinion Research, stated that the 2018 election “hinted to people that with the right candidate, you could challenge Perry.”
Empowered by Perry’s near-defeat in 2018, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee named the 2020 Democratic candidate Eugene Depasquale a member of its Red to Blue list, a group of candidates identified by the party in its effort to flip Republican-held seats in Congress. Instead of turning the political tide in the district, however, Depasquale lost by a greater margin than George Scott had in 2018.
Some attribute this to Depasquale’s poor performance on the campaign trail. The Democrat seemingly failed to recover from strings of attack ads and the dimming effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on campaign events. In many ways, the battle was less ideological than it was personal. As Yost frankly observes, Depasquale “ran a pretty miserable race.”
On the flip side of that coin was the popularity of Scott Perry among the PA-10 Republican base. In an interview with the HPR, Lowman Henry, CEO of the conservative Lincoln Institute for Public Opinion, who has served in local office within the district, attributed Perry’s success in fending off challengers to his strong presence in the district: “I think his biggest key is that he stays connected to people in the district. Scott is all over the district at events and meeting with people and talking with various groups all the time.”
Whether because of his challenger’s underwhelming performance or his own political prowess, Perry outperformed Donald Trump in 2020, winning by six points, while Trump only won by four in the district. Trump outperformed many Republicans in the state, including the party’s candidates for Attorney General and State Treasurer, making Perry’s win all the more notable. A bloc of Republicans in the district were willing to split their tickets against Donald Trump, but they remained loyal to Congressman Perry, whose brand was now well-established among the conservative base.
Then came the 2022 midterms. Democrats were already making registration gains in the district, largely in the Harrisburg suburbs. At the same time, Scott Perry began to cast his more extreme views into the political spotlight, aligning himself with Trump’s MAGA brand. From his leadership in the deeply conservative House Freedom Caucus to his alleged role in the events surrounding Jan. 6, 2021, Perry only further alienated the district’s political center. Rather than spending his campaign funds to reach these pivotal swing voters, he began spending them on legal fees related to Jan. 6.
But the Democrats still fell short in their quest to unseat the incumbent in PA-10. Shamaine Daniels, the severely underfunded progressive challenger in the district, lost by nearly eight percentage points.
Perhaps even more notably, this was the same year that Josh Shapiro defeated Republican Doug Mastriano in a landslide gubernatorial victory — the race that dealt a severe blow to Pennsylvania Republicans and catapulted Shapiro to the national stage. Yet amid much ticket-splitting, the increasingly polarizing Scott Perry once again prevailed.
From Red to Blue: Janelle Stelson and the Question of Moderate Candidates
These last several election cycles have proven the depth and vigor of Scott Perry’s political base in PA-10. So why do many believe PA-10 is still a swing district?
In this election, Perry’s detractors point to Janelle Stelson as the quintessential moderate who can win the center in PA-10. A former registered Republican who has since joined the ranks of Democrats, Stelson may have the appeal to Independents and center-right voters that previous moderates have failed to deliver. As an award-winning anchor for one of the region’s top-rated news stations, Stelson built a rapport that she believes has qualified her to represent the district in Congress.
Among Perry’s chief critics is a group called “Republicans Against Perry,” which has emerged in support of Janelle Stelson. Craig Snyder, a lifelong conservative and one of the group’s leaders, asserted in an interview with the HPR that “Stelson is another Shapiro,” connecting Stelson’s moderate brand to now-Governor Shapiro’s similar appeal to swing voters in the state.
Henry disagrees with that parallel. Pointing to Shapiro’s near-losses in prior state Attorney General races, Henry contends that “the [2022] gubernatorial race was an anomaly, and it wasn’t so much pro-Josh Shapiro as it was the failure of Republicans to mount a campaign.” Doug Mastriano, Shapiro’s Republican challenger, did become defined by rather extreme views, which has never been an effective campaign strategy in Pennsylvania.
Whether Scott Perry can distance himself from the same allegations of extremism against a Shapiro-esque challenger remains to be seen. As Yost observes, “I think the perception is [Perry is] vulnerable. And I think that’s true. But whether anyone can capitalize on that vulnerability remains to be seen.”
As evidenced by close races for the PA-10 Congressional district in the past, the seat is not a safe haven for any candidate, even for a long-term incumbent like Perry. But, unlike in 2020, when Democrats chose a more progressive candidate in Shamaine Daniels, the party has now opted for a candidate who may very well lay claim to the political center in the district.
According to Snyder, the Democrats failed to unseat Congressman Perry in 2022 because Shamaine Daniels was the “wrong kind of Democratic nominee” for the district, one who was able to “galvanize the base in a small turnout [primary] election” but who failed to appeal to the majority of voters in the district. Given Stelson’s victory this year, many Democrats seem to agree with this assessment.
In addition to highlighting Stelson’s strength as a moderate candidate, Perry’s critics allege that the Congressman has failed to represent the interests and values of his constituents. In recent years, Scott Perry has been criticized by Democrats for his alleged role in the events surrounding Jan. 6, 2021, his notable “nay” vote on aid to Israel, and his opposition to the recent bill raising the debt ceiling. While Perry is certainly not alone in his party with stances such as these, he must defend them to a far more moderate constituency than many of his colleagues.
For conservatives such as Snyder, Scott Perry embodies the Trump-driven trajectory of the party that diverges from traditional conservative values, such as embracing common-sense immigration reform, favoring free trade, and strengthening global alliances. According to Snyder, the mission of Republicans Against Perry is rather straightforward: “What we’re trying to do here is to defeat somebody who we think is just on the wrong side of these issues and has taken the party in a very bad direction.”
It is not just the moderate wing of the Republican party that sees the electoral potential in Stelson. The DCCC added Stelson to its Red to Blue list, the same honor it bestowed upon Eugene Depasquale in 2020. By placing Stelson on this list, the Democratic party has indicated to voters not just in central Pennsylvania, but also across the country, that it views PA-10 as a key race in the party’s quest to reclaim the House majority.
Granted, Depasquale’s place on this list failed to secure a Democratic victory. The Red to Blue list is far from a surefire ticket to Congress, but combined with Stelson’s own red-to-blue story, it may provide the push Democrats need to turn the tide in the district.
Strength in Numbers: The Case for a Competitive Race
As Nov. 5 approaches, Congressman Perry’s detractors seem to feel a sense of momentum on their side. If history has taught us anything, however, it is that the numbers on Election Day do not always reflect the sentiments of the campaign. While polls are far from perfect indicators, they provide a tangible picture of the PA-10 race that qualitative analyses fail to offer.
Berwood Yost conducted a poll of the 10th Congressional District in late May and early June, finding that Congressman Perry led Stelson by just one percentage point, with 11% of voters still undecided.
In reality, those undecided voters are not only considering their choice in this down-ballot race. PA-10 voters have proven that they are willing to split their tickets, but the recent shake-up in the Presidential race will undoubtedly trickle down into Congressional races across the map.
As Yost conveyed, “I think if Democrats generate the kind of enthusiasm we’re seeing right now, that could help down ballot, just like Biden’s underperformance was hurting down ballot and helping Republicans.” Yost emphasized that Pennsylvania voters in particular “are looking for something more moderate,” a reality that continues to impact Vice President Harris’s platform on issues such as fracking as the campaign progresses.
Despite the give and take of these top-of-ballot dynamics, Snyder is confident that enough Republicans in PA-10 will cast their ballots against Perry, just as many did against Doug Mastriano when presented with a moderate alternative in Josh Shapiro in 2022. In Snyder’s estimation, “Scott Perry can lose and will lose, despite the fact that I believe that Trump will win the district.” What Kamala Harris lacks in appeal to some moderates in the district, Janelle Stelson may deliver. Stelson, whose name recognition is already likely to carry her farther than Perry’s recent challengers, has made moderation and bipartisanship fixtures of her campaign.
Whether or not Stelson can deliver that message effectively is an open question, but there is no doubt that she has planted the seeds of a political upset in the minds of national observers. Cook Political Report recently shifted the PA-10 seat from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.” Welcome PAC, a center-left organization that identifies and supports challengers to vulnerable Republican candidates, has supported Stelson as well. Perhaps most importantly, Janelle Stelson doubled Congressman Perry’s fundraising haul in the second quarter of 2024.
Developments such as these are unique to this election cycle. None of Perry’s previous challengers, not even the nationally-backed Depasquale in 2020, raised as much money or turned as many political heads in the leadup to Election Day.
Nonetheless, Stelson has never before held public office, and she will have to answer to criticisms about her lack of residency in the district. According to the June Franklin and Marshall poll, half of voters were still unaware of this fact. As Henry notes, “that isn’t exactly a good campaign approach.” He views it as a “self-inflicted wound” to Stelson’s campaign.
It remains to be seen whether or not Stelson’s fundraising advantage will be enough to overcome the electoral hurdles ahead in the campaign. At the very least, she is poised to give Scott Perry a run for his money, both literally and figuratively.
An Outsized Choice: The Stakes of Election Day in PA-10
While most observers have zoomed in on the intensifying presidential race, the battle for control of Congress has arguably become even narrower. With one of the slimmest House majorities in U.S. history, House Republicans will need to defend every vulnerable seat to remain in control of the chamber. For PA-10, a district that only leans Republican, the stakes of what seems like a local election are actually quite national.
For critics of Scott Perry, the 2024 election in the 10th District is more than a numbers game. Janelle Stelson and the group of Republicans aligned with her have largely framed this campaign as a fight for democracy, pointing to Scott Perry’s “extremist agenda” and votes against bipartisan legislation as dangers to the interests of PA-10 voters. While voters in Republican-held districts like PA-10 have held onto Trump-aligned leaders such as Perry, they might just be ready to retreat to the middle-ground candidate in Stelson.
Whether with enthusiasm, fear, interest, doubt, or some combination thereof, a growing number of Americans are entering November with a sense of anticipation for what the PA-10 Congressional race might bring. But this campaign goes beyond just these two candidates and even beyond a single horse race. Underlying this political battle is a fundamental question of what type of candidate can and should win in a swing district like PA-10.
