In my home of Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania, political yard signs invariably pop up on every street and intersection each election. During the general election season, it’s impossible to drive for more than a minute without coming across a plethora of years-old Trump signs and freshly minted Harris signs.
Between the houses proudly flaunting their political allegiances are a multitude of plain green, signless yards. These are the yards of neighbors who feel constrained by the noise of election season, and unsure of the best path forward for the country.
Yet, these voters are the ones who will decide this election. They are cognizant of the sway they hold, but that does not ease their choice. Whether they are solid Independents, Republicans fatigued by Trumpism, Democrats skeptical of Harris, or anywhere in between, the swing voters of Pennsylvania have never been more important than they are now.
With 19 electoral votes, the most of any swing state, Pennsylvania is a must-win state in the path to the White House. Both parties acknowledge this reality. Moreover, the Keystone State has elected the ultimate winner in 10 of the 12 Presidential elections since 1976, leading some to call it the nation’s electoral bellwether.
However, Pennsylvania and its residents are far more than a mere prize to be won in this election. The state is in many ways a microcosm of the American people. What its swing voters ultimately decide will indicate a great deal about America’s present and future.
The Pennsylvanian Pursuit of a Moderate
In late July, many Americans heard the name Josh Shapiro for the first time when the Pennsylvania Governor soared to the top of Harris’s running mate shortlist. While the vice president eventually selected Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, Shapiro’s meteoric rise to national prominence was not a matter of chance. Rather, it points to his successful appeal to Pennsylvania’s moderate voters, an integral bloc in this election.
In 2022, Shapiro won the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race in a landslide, defeating Republican Doug Mastriano by nearly 15 percentage points. Shapiro amassed the most votes of any gubernatorial candidate in Pennsylvania history, and flipped four key counties that had voted for Trump in 2020: Luzerne; Berks; Beaver; and Cumberland, my home county.
Given the razor-thin polling that marks the norm for Pennsylvania up and down the ballot this fall, it is difficult to visualize a Democratic landslide in the governor’s race just two years ago. While there are key differences between the 2022 race and the 2024 Presidential election, neither Trump nor Harris can afford to take for granted the lessons learned in 2022.
Shapiro has largely marketed himself to Pennsylvania voters as a moderate who works across the aisle to get things done. He has taken a middle-ground stance on the issue of fracking and has suggested support for some form of school choice, positions that appeal to many right-leaning moderate Pennsylvanians. In 2022, Shapiro proved that with the right messaging, Democrats could reclaim working-class and swing voters who voted for Trump in 2020. Harris, who nearly chose Shapiro as her running mate, followed in his footsteps on the fracking issue. This was a stark contrast to the more progressive messaging of her 2020 race. Given this shift, it is evident that the Harris campaign is taking notes from Shapiro’s 2022 triumph in its approach to the Keystone State.
To say that Doug Mastriano took a different approach in 2022 would be an understatement. The State Senator from Adams County is known for his extreme views, ranging from QAnon-driven conspiracy theories to an intense embrace of Christian nationalism. He also reportedly paid for Trump supporters’ bus tickets to the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and was photographed on Capitol grounds that day. Unlike Trump, however, Mastriano lacked the campaign funds to fight Democrats’ campaign narrative of his extremism, which ultimately benefited Shapiro.
Governor’s races are different in many ways from presidential campaigns, but the parallels between 2022 and the present abound. Doug Mastriano succumbed to the charge of extremism, a political death trap for candidates seeking statewide office in Pennsylvania. The Harris campaign has ramped up its characterization of Trump as extreme and “weird,” a strategy that has become characteristic of swing races across the country. The closer Harris can link Trump to Mastriano, the more successful she will be on Election Day.
Shapiro did not solely win because his opponent became increasingly defined as extreme. The centerpiece of his victory was his own appeal to swing voters. This is perhaps the most important takeaway from 2022. Harris cannot only rely on attacking Trump. She must also convince Pennsylvanians that she has their interests at heart. Recent polling indicates that Pennsylvania voters generally find Trump more extreme than Harris. Whether or not Harris wins Pennsylvania could very well hinge on her ability to advance that point.
The Voters who Speak for the Country
Each party certainly has its strongholds in Pennsylvania, as with any state. For Democrats, the bedrocks are Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Republicans can traditionally count on rural voters sprinkled across the state. But the districts that do not fall neatly into these red and blue baskets are the ones that will play an outsized role on November 5th.
Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District, located in the Lehigh Valley in Eastern Pennsylvania, has seen more than its fair share of party leaders on the campaign trail. The district has chosen the eventual President in the past seven election cycles, a fact that the Trump and Harris campaigns, as well as Congressional Democratic leadership, do not take lightly.
Northampton County, which lies within the district, has voted for the ultimate winner in all but three elections since 1912. The county contains the two small cities of Bethlehem and Easton, along with a more rural electorate beyond: the classic makings of a swing region. Out of any place in the country to watch on election night, Northampton County tops the list. If history is any indicator, this county’s candidate of choice will very likely be the nation’s next President.
In the 8th District, situated in Northeastern Pennsylvania, House Democrat Matt Cartwright is also fighting for re-election in a spending-heavy battle. Trump won Pa.-8 in both 2016 and 2020. In 2022, however, Shapiro made substantial inroads in the district, flipping Luzerne County and outpacing Biden’s 2020 performance in the president’s own birthplace of Lackawanna County. While Cartwright is projected to win his congressional race, the margins are likely to be tighter for the top of the Democratic ticket.
Beyond these toss-up districts, the lean-Republican district of Pa.-10, my home district, is shaping up to be quite competitive. Voters in the suburbs of Harrisburg, the state capitol, have driven much of this competition. Janelle Stelson, the Democratic challenger to the district’s Republican Congressman Scott Perry, has risen in the polls by appealing to moderates in-district. Moreover, Stelson tripled Perry’s fundraising haul in the third quarter, with both candidates having received millions in funding over the course of the campaign. Much like Shapiro in 2022, Stelson is providing a potential roadmap for Harris in this key district that could be poised to swing blue.
A number of the swing voters in these districts remain undecided or persuadable in the leadup to election day. As everyday, working-class Americans, most of them likely are not tracking every poll, listening to political pundits, or advertising their political allegiances at every given opportunity.
They are simply trying to decide which candidate shares their vision of the future and will represent them in the White House.
The challenge and beauty of swing districts like mine is that the swing voters and party-liners are often one door down from one another. This coexistence in the midst of substantial political differences feels so far from our polarized national reality, yet it is commonplace in areas like Mechanicsburg. Regardless of what they decide on Election Day, neighbors will continue to live with, and alongside, one another. On Nov. 5, they will go to work together, send their children to the same schools, and lament the same frigid fall weather.
In places like my hometown, outside of the party strongholds, we find the voters whose choice will make all the difference. Our next President, whomever it may be, will have the Keystone State to thank when they move to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue come January.
