The clock is ticking, and all eyes are on Pennsylvania. With the most electoral votes of any swing state, the Keystone state could ultimately decide the outcome of the upcoming 2024 presidential election.
Current state polling averages show Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in an extremely close race for Pennsylvania’s electoral votes. This tight contest is not new to the state: Donald Trump won Pennsylvania by just 0.7% in 2016, whereas President Joe Biden recaptured the crucial swing state by 1.2% in 2020. The candidate who wins a state like Pennsylvania — which frequently flips — is likely to win the presidential election.
Despite Pennsylvania’s reputation as a pivotal battleground, it seems like the stakes have never been higher than in 2024. Each week brings new campaign events, celebrities, and politicians to the voters of Philadelphia, Erie, Pittsburgh, and dozens of other towns across the state. Additionally, Axios estimates that both campaigns are set to spend over $200 million on advertisements in Pennsylvania between the end of the Republican primary and Election Day.
It is evident that both campaigns are fiercely vying for Pennsylvania, making it a key electoral target. However, Pennsylvania is more than its 19 electoral votes — how are its voters actually represented in this election cycle?
Pennsylvania’s Diverse Electorate
The demographic shifts of each county and its voting patterns have been intensely scrutinized by Pundits in each election cycle. In particular, Philadelphia collar counties and the growing “Latino Belt” are of significant importance.
Composed of the suburbs around the state’s largest city, Philadelphia collar counties — including Delaware, Bucks, and Montgomery — have voted overwhelmingly Democratic in the past three elections. This major voting bloc, alongside Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, have the potential to keep Pennsylvania blue.
Yet, the collection of cities known as the “Latino Belt” — including Reading, Hazelton, and Allentown — have made significant strides leaning in favor of Trump as their Latino populations continue to swell. As the former President continues to hold onto his lead among Latino voters, such demographic shifts could make a significant difference in Pennsylvania’s outcome. Districts like PA-07 will also be influential in deciding the presidential race: Current Rep. Susan Wild, D-P.a., faces off against Republican challenger Ryan Mackenzie in this largely Latino district, the outcome of which could predict the presidency. Both parties have frequently held campaign events in these areas, courting the voters that will decide the election.
Furthermore, Pennsylvania has also seen an increase in its Black, Latino, and college-educated voter populations, all demographic groups that have historically been more likely to vote Democrat. The Democrats will also expect to win support from the growing southeast region and its urban populations out of Philadelphia and Harrisburg.
Although 44% of Pennsylvania voters are registered Democrats, this percentage has decreased in recent years relative to registered Republicans. White non-college-educated voters make up just over half of the state’s electorate, and this group tends to vote red. Many of Pennsylvania’s smaller and rural counties, like the Amish communities of Lancaster, also swing Republican. Pennsylvania’s diverse electorate is clear — from farmers to frackers to corporate America, Pennsylvania voters from all sides of the aisle represent the country.
Key Issues for Pennsylvania
For many Pennsylvania voters, fracking, oil, energy policy, and manufacturing are top of mind: These industries support a large number of Pennsylvania workers and represent an important cornerstone of the state’s economy. The economy more generally has also polled as a top issue for Pennsylvanians. These policy priorities are clear to both candidates, who have continuously addressed these economic issues — fracking in particular — at rallies across the state and on the Philadelphia debate stage. The candidates’ positions on strengthening various sectors of the economy will therefore be crucial in swaying the Keystone state.
That said, Pennsylvania also prioritizes a range of issues that resonate deeply across the country. Reproductive rights are also on the ballot this election. With recent Supreme Court decisions and a partisan split on codifying Roe v. Wade, this critically important issue has largely divided voters in the state. Additionally, polling from ACLU Pennsylvania indicates that residents are looking for policies that focus on improving their quality of life, especially regarding public safety and immigration.
Moreover, a majority of Pennsylvanians have said that current health care systems have failed to meet their needs. There is also strong historical support for stricter gun safety reform, even in the absence of comprehensive gun control measures within the state. These national concerns, among others, will play a significant role in shaping how Pennsylvanians cast their votes.
The upcoming presidential election also has high stakes locally. Sen. Bob Casey, D-P.a., faces an important re-election campaign against Republican challenger Dave McCormick, who is a former hedge fund CEO. The outcome of this race will be crucial for both Pennsylvanians and the next President: A victory for Sen. Casey could help Democrats retain control of the Senate, while a defeat may hand control of the chamber to the Republicans. As such, both Harris and Trump have weighed into this contentious Senate race in support of their party’s candidate.
Media Frenzy
Since the onset of their presidential campaigns, both candidates have hosted a flurry of events across Pennsylvania, aiming to connect with voters on a personal level. These campaign rallies often feature celebrities and prominent lawmakers, creating a spectacle designed to draw crowds and media attention. However, an assassination attempt on President Trump at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, which left two dead, has intensified the emotions surrounding this election. Mass media attention has further underscored the significance of Pennsylvania.
Despite the best efforts of both campaigns, the state has not given a clear indication of where it will lean. Scranton native Biden won the state by just over 1% in 2020, but Harris does not have her former running mate’s hometown advantage. Even at this stage in the race, it still is anyone’s game.
The People Left Behind
With the nation carefully watching, it is up to Pennsylvania to make a decision this November. However, Pennsylvanians are not just tallies of votes to be won: Every voter is an individual voice with specific needs and wants. Considering the dead heat in the polls, it seems that Pennsylvanians are still deeply divided over which candidate will best serve their interests. As such, candidates must demonstrate genuine care for voters’ policy concerns rather than just going through the motions to secure the state’s electoral count. If you want to win Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania needs to know that you want it back.
To that end, Pennsylvania’s unique electorate makes it the state to watch for the upcoming election. The future of the nation could once again be decided by Pennsylvania’s voters, but it is essential that candidates truly listen to their voices and address their needs. How well the candidates engage with the Keystone state may very well determine the next occupant of the White House. Ultimately, Pennsylvania is more than just a number; if candidates want to earn genuine support, Pennsylvanians must feel listened to and respected. Their concerns and aspirations should be at the forefront of campaign efforts to secure their votes.
