Sleeping Giants and Submerged Rocks

When Japanese Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto proclaimed, “I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant,” he was referring to the United States after the attack on Pearl Harbor. Today, Japan’s sleeping giant is China, but the nation’s recent aggressive actions suggest China, too, has woken up. This past November, China created an “air defense identification zone” (ADIZ) covering a vast portion of the South China Sea. The purpose of this zone, China declared, was to monitor aircraft passing through the proclaimed airspace and to have the ability to take military action if the aircraft were deemed a threat to Chinese national security. The declaration by Ministry of National Defense spokesperson Colonel Yang Yujun calling for national sovereignty and territorial security came as tensions were rising between China and Japan over territorially disputed islands in the East China Sea. Weeks after China created the ADIZ, South Korea responded by expanding its own ADIZ, a zone that had not changed since its creation in 1951.
Why would China attempt such a bold move, when it appeared relations with other regional powers were improving? After all, Sino-Korean cooperation had been contributing to economic growth for both countries. Japan and China, despite historical animosity and the recent South China Sea spats, were maintaining normal diplomatic relations. China’s declaration of the new ADIZ was not only a provocative attempt to assert the rising nation’s regional power but also a signal to the international community of decreasing East Asian stability.
Wounded Tigers
After China proclaimed an ADIZ, Chinese fighter jets were dispatched to patrol the skies. The move may have been meant to send a domestic message, but it ended up shrouded in international controversy. There is no doubt Beijing was attempting to assert its power and desire for more influence in geopolitical affairs, but the ADIZ may also be a domestic message that the country is continuing to strengthen. The economic bubble China has enjoyed may be on the verge of popping: economic indicators have been predicting a decrease in growth. President Xi Jinping could be using the ADIZ to reinvigorate the Chinese spirit.
As a relatively new leader, Xi has been confronted with many concerning issues, from slowed economic growth to demands for more government transparency to an unpredictable North Korea. After expanding China’s proclaimed territory, Xi must back up his words or else appear weak. If he succeeds in the former, the Chinese Communist Party may gain more legitimacy with the Chinese people and stimulate nationalist fervor. If he fails, the CCP may lose much of the legitimacy it has historically enjoyed.
In recent years, tensions between China and Japan over a group of islands in the South China Sea have escalated. Known as Senkaku in Japanese and Diaoyu in Chinese, the islands are formally owned by the Japanese government after being purchased from a Japanese citizen in 2012. Japan saw the introduction of a Chinese ADIZ covering the disputed islands as an attempt by China to claim territory that has never fallen under Chinese control. The Chinese argue the islands were under Chinese jurisdiction prior to the first Sino-Japanese War, but there is no concrete evidence to support that claim. Japan responded to the zone expansion by mobilizing fighter jets shortly after the announcement. Michael Green, senior vice president for Asia and Japan chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, indicated in an interview with the HPR that the security of the Senkaku Islands is of great concern to the Japanese as a result of China’s new ADIZ.
Throughout the ordeal, Japan has remained steadfast in refusing to recognize China’s proclaimed zone and has since sent multiple military aircraft through the Chinese ADIZ in defiance of it. Additionally, Japan has repeatedly denounced the ADIZ and asked the international community to condemn China’s aggressive actions. If the zone serves to signal China’s rising military power, Japan is standing its ground to defend itself from its neighbor across the sea.
An Assertive South Korea
Not only did China’s move affect disputed Japanese islands, but the Chinese ADIZ also extends far enough into South Korean waters to cover a submerged rock that is important to both countries. Rich in natural gas and mineral deposits, this rock—known as Ieodo in Korean and Suyan in Chinese—is a valuable resource for whomever controls it. Located off the southern coast of the Korean peninsula, the rock has been under South Korea’s ADIZ since 1951.
In response to China’s ADIZ expansion, South Korea has enlarged its own zone, in addition to advancing plans to build a naval base in Jeju, near Ieodo. Professor Terence Roehrig of the United States Naval War College told the HPR that South Korea’s expansion of its own ADIZ was “a point of emphasis that this is not a Chinese zone to administer.” Seoul has said this is to protect its trade interests throughout the East China Sea, but if the dispute escalates into a military conflict, the base would also serve as a platform for South Korea to launch operations. Roehrig asserted that South Korea’s construction of a naval base in Jeju “is not surprising, as it is part of their outward look towards being involved in regional security issues.”
Both China and Japan were frustrated by South Korea’s expansion of its ADIZ, since all three ADIZs now overlap. The Japanese and South Korean zones overlap on another group of contested islands. Tensions between the governments regarding these islands—known as Dokdo in South Korean and Takeshima in Japanese—were only heightened by the conflicting zones. The Dokdo-Takeshima Islands have been a “source of irritation between the Japanese and South Koreans for many years,” said Roehrig.
Danger for the United States
Rising regional tension has put the United States in a difficult position diplomatically. On one hand, the U.S. is an ally of both South Korea and Japan. On the other hand, Washington has no desire to aggravate the Chinese. However, the U.S. government has made it clear that, should China use military action to obtain the Senkaku islands, the American military is bound by Article V of its Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security with Japan to aid in the defense of all Japanese territory. That being said, Green states, “no U.S. government is going to be eager to get into a shooting match with China. We need to deter China with our close ties to Japan.” As a means of discouraging such aggression, the United States, like Japan and South Korea, has continued to fly military aircraft through China’s ADIZ in the hopes of persuading the rising power to withdraw its claims.
Perhaps the even more complicated predicament for Washington is the dispute between South Korea and Japan over the Dokdo-Takeshima islands. There is hope that conflict can be avoided because, as Green stated, any conflict between Japan and South Korea would be “100 percent diplomatic” rather than military, as it would be “hard to mobilize forces [of U.S. allies] against each other.” Still, if the small territorial disputes escalated by East Asian air defense identification zones become more hostile, the United States may be dragged into yet another war.
The United States is also currently in the transitional period of its “Pivot to Asia.” As the U.S. Navy maneuvers a small majority of its fleet farther east, China has in some respects viewed the pivot as a military play. The United States maintains, however, that the pivot is purely diplomatic and should not be seen by the Chinese as a threat of containment or military action.
Tinder for the Fire?
In a region rife with territorial dispute, the possibility of military clashes threatens stability in an already uneasy area. While “in many respects the region is largely stable,” Roehrig cautioned, “the real danger is that something inadvertent happens while the powers are asserting sovereignty.” On one level, there is “tremendous economic cooperation, and yet at another level there are these geopolitical points that could blow up.”
The question then becomes whether or not economic cooperation is powerful enough to tamp down the potential for geopolitical clashing. If the Chinese economic bubble holds and economic ties with Japan and South Korea remain solid, the ADIZ could become a moot point. On the other hand, should the bubble collapse, China may resort to more aggressive actions that provoke a military response from its neighbors. Aside from the rising tensions between China, Japan, and South Korea, competing territorial claims have been made by the Philippines, Brunei, Vietnam, and Taiwan, among others. One military or diplomatic miscalculation could lead to a conflict of massive scope.