The African National Congress has been the dominant party in South African politics since the nation’s first free elections with universal suffrage in 1994. That year, the party won over 60% of the seats in the country’s newly established National Assembly, gaining its then-leader Nelson Mandela the presidency. These three decades of unfettered rule came to an abrupt end in 2024, when for the first time the ANC lost its majority — falling to only 40% of the vote from 57% in 2019.
The ANC still holds a plurality in the South African National Assembly with 159 of the 400 total seats. Its main rival, the Democratic Alliance, holds the second most seats with 87. To maintain power, the ANC has had to shift to a centrist coalition government, sharing power with the Democratic Alliance and the Inkatha Freedom Party. As part of this coalition, the ANC’s current leader, Cyril Ramaphosa, has remained the president of South Africa, a position he has held since February 2018.
This development is likely to limit the ANC’s policy discretion and lead other special interests represented by the different parties to seek concessions over the policies pursued. For instance, the Democratic Alliance may see an advancement of its initiative to dismantle economic policies that specifically seek to empower non-White South Africans, such as the Black Economic Empowerment policy, which is designed to promote black entrepreneurs in the country.
These shifts raise the question of why the ANC lost the favor of so many South African voters. One explanation is a litany of practical issues in the country, which have fomented dissatisfaction with the government. Among these concerns is an incredibly high unemployment rate, which peaked at 32.9% in 2023. In fact, the true number is likely much higher than reported by the government as official sources exclude discouraged job seekers and neglect underemployment, where workers work under 35 hours a week despite wanting to work more.
Another major concern in the election was the country’s high crime rate: in the last three months of 2023, there was a daily average of 130 murders and 80 cases of rape documented. Other important factors to voters included economic inequality, frequent power cuts, and the lack of utilities in cities as exemplified by the intensifying water shortages in Johannesburg.
For many, the mismanagement of crime rates and the economy was a violation of the ANC’s initial promise to create a prosperous life for South Africans, especially for the Black majority who were systematically oppressed under Apartheid and continue to suffer disproportionately from these social issues. Opposition parties capitalized on ANC’s failure to fulfill its mandate by offering alternative policies such as land redistribution and affirmative action.
Another problem the ANC has faced is corruption. The party’s reputation for rampant corruption dates back to the tenure of Jacob Zuma, who led the party and served as South Africa’s president from 2009 until 2018, when he resigned in disgrace due to corruption charges. In 2022, Ramaphosa was accused of bribery, money laundering, and breaking South Africa’s foreign currency laws as he allegedly attempted to cover up that over $580,000 USD was stolen from a couch at his farm. Despite this, in 2024, South African prosecutors announced that they would not pursue criminal charges against Ramaphosa.
Perhaps the largest challenge, however, came from former President Zuma himself. In December 2023, Zuma founded the breakaway uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party to run against the ANC and other parties in the 2024 election. Despite his resignation, Zuma continues to carry significant support from the South African electorate. His party placed third in the elections, winning 58 seats, which represents about 15% of the National Assembly.
In its manifesto, the MK party conveyed populist rhetoric, including promises to nationalize South Africa’s banks and mines. It also criticized the ANC’s rule since 1994 as a defeat for South Africa, claiming that the country has moved away from its core values and faces “moral decay.” The party promises to defeat what it describes as a national condition of “neo-apartheid” by taking dramatic actions such as “eхргоргiating all land without compensation and transferring ownership to the people under state and traditional leadership custodianship,” “providing permanent jobs for all capable and willing workers,” and “ensuring that every young person reaching the age of 18 serves a year of military service to cultivate discipline and patriotism.” These promises made by the MK reflect the broader discontent among South Africans with the ANC’s inability to deliver on its equity and prosperity platform.
The brazen radicalism of the MK party and its success in removing the ANC’s majority in South African politics reflects an intense backlash to the failures and shortcomings of the ANC’s rule. Additionally, it aligns with a broader global shift toward populism, seen in many other elections internationally. The ANC’s loss presents an alarming story for other controlling parties in the region and questions the stability of their rule.
These developments highlight the broader challenges moderate governments face worldwide from increasingly extremist factions empowered by high levels of political turbulence in recent years. These more traditional parties must reckon with how they can maintain control of power and reassure voters of the promise of stable progress in this ever-radicalizing environment.
Senior U.S. Editor
