Early July last year, the world clamoured to celebrate the birth of South Sudan after a protracted and bloody conflict with its northern counterpart, Sudan. Despite wide coverage in international media, the referendum that established the world’s 193rd nation did little to address the most pressing sources of conflict. As South Sudan’s independence approaches its first anniversary, the central African country remains mired in many problems, ranging from conflict over ill-defined borders to internal ethnic violence that reportedly has killed thousands. Resolving these problems demands active cooperation between the governments of Sudan and South Sudan, a willingness to make concessions toward security, and a vigorous effort from the international community to ensure stability in the region.
The Abyei Crisis
Formally a Sudanese region, Abyei is an ethnically diverse area of South Kordofan province, slightly smaller than Connecticut, which straddles the divide between Sudan and South Sudan. Because of its location, Abyei is often inaccurately characterized as oil-rich. Jonathan Temin, director of the Sudan program at the United States Institute of Peace, explains that, “it used to have decent amounts, but it has minimal reserves now.” Although oil remains highly contested between the two Sudans, the current impasse in Abyei has deeper origins.
Conflict over the area originated with the First Sudanese Civil War that began during the 1950s, and since then both sides have laid competing claims. The 2004 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) stipulated that Abyei would be jointly administered by both nations, pending the 2011 referendum. Temin tells the HPR that regarding South Sudanese independence, “it seems they were willing to let Abyei fly in favour of the larger referendum. The international community was okay with that and let it happen.”
Deliberations over Abyei’s status became more muddled after neither side could decide what individuals were eligible to vote. Sudanese authorities pushed enfranchising the nomadic Missiri while South Sudanese officials argued for more constrained definitions of Abyei citizenship. Amid the gridlock, an U.N.-backed agreement in September 2011 required both sides to withdraw military forces from the region.
Abyei’s unresolved status represents a major struggle between the Sudans and no clear solutions exist. The most logical path forward to determining Abyei’s ownership, the referendum, has effectively been eliminated, increasing tension and the threat of military combat. Temin suggests three routes the conflict could take: first, a popular referendum, second, a unilateral declaration by either Sudan claiming Abyei, and third, the preservation of the current nebulous status quo. However, a referendum would likely be rife with disagreement over voting rights, and a unilateral decision is politically impossible. Worst yet, Temin asserts, maintaining the status quo, “would be a pretty lousy outcome for the people who actually live in Abyei.”
Ethnic Conflict
Although ethnic conflict has dominated Sudanese landscape for decades, the form it has taken over recent months in South Sudan raises unique concerns. Like other communities mobilized along ethnic boundaries, South Sudan’s population is comprised of groups that nurture animosity towards each other, which has traditionally entailed small cattle raids and minor skirmishes. Since independence, the magnitude of violence has been magnified, particularly in the Jonglei state where increased cattle raiding and violence between the Dinka Bor, Murle and Lou Nuer tribes Cattle has killed over 3,000 and driven 150,000 people from their homes.
Identifying the source of the violence would help bring stability to the ravaged region, but ethnic conflict is multifaceted and difficult to resolve. John Campbell, a regional expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, explains that resolving the issue is particularly difficult when ethnic divisions form around economic boundaries, as South Sudan is experiencing.
However, there is increasing evidence from discovered weapons caches that ethnic violence in South Sudan has been perpetrated and exacerbated by the Sudanese government in Khartoum. Eric Reeves, a Professor at Smith College, pinpoints this as a major concern, telling the HPR that, “these automatic weapons have changed cattle raids into something much more destructive.”
The current internecine violence underlies multiple struggles taking place in greater Sudan. From economic hardship to escalating tensions, the endemic conflict in South Sudan resulted from many deep-seated issues that must be addressed gradually. However, the violence and deaths stemming from ethnic conflict demand immediate action. Campbell tells the HPR, “The government of South Sudan must address ethnic issues by reaching out to the disaffected minorities, and the international community can mobilize itself to meet some of the humanitarian needs of the people.” Temin adds that international efforts could, “support the capacity of the government…to deliver services, and support the UN mission in South Sudan.”
Black Gold
For both Sudan and South Sudan, oil remains the single most challenging issue on the political horizon. Currently, South Sudan possesses approximately 80 percent of total oil reserves between the two countries, despite the fact that only its northern counterpart contains the refineries and oil pipelines necessary for the processing and exportation of crude oil. Yet, even accounting for logistical difficulties, South Sudan remains extremely dependent on oil; over 90 percent of its revenues are oil exports.
According to Campbell, the international community had expected the two nations to resolve the issues of oil infrastructural cooperation and revenue sharing in advance of South Sudanese independence. However, Sudan and South Sudan have yet to establish a feasible system or pipeline rental arrangement. Furthermore, the South Sudanese government has accused Khartoum of stealing from its oil reserves, which Sudan justifies as compensation for unpaid transit fees.
Consequently, South Sudan is seeking alternative methods for exporting its oil. A deal was recently signed between South Sudan and Kenya to construct a pipeline that would sidestep Sudan, and plans to build an independent refinery are underway. “South Sudan would have no trouble gaining international funding for the project,” says Campbell. Although the deal could be a boon for South Sudan, Khartoum fears a collapse of inflows to its refineries, and might respond violently. Thus, to preserve regional stability, South Sudan must play its cards right, finding a means to advance its interests without aggravating Sudan and provoking military confrontation.
The Way Forward
Despite having attained independence and international recognition without plunging into full-scale conflict, South Sudan hangs in a precarious balance. As unresolved problems like Abyei, interethnic warfare, and oil arrangements with Sudan continue to fester, the prospect of violence metastasizing looms, demanding the full and absolute attention of South Sudan’s newly-christened leadership. Resolving ethnic conflict without resorting to military intervention that could exacerbate violence should be prioritized. South Sudan has international support and should capitalize on that to placate aggressors and aid civilian victims. After decades of civil war, South Sudan cannot afford to become embroiled in military confrontation with Sudan, and must proceed carefully and diplomatically with its northern neighbor in advancing its interests.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Pete Muller
© 2024 Harvard Political Review. All rights reserved.