The Bear in the Backyard

Russia’s reemergence in Latin America
“This time, we are back [in Latin America] forever,” announced Alexei Sazanov, the deputy director of Russia’s Foreign Ministry. Sazanov, a prominent spokesman for Russian diplomacy, made this declaration just days after three Russian warships performed joint naval exercises with the Venezuelan navy. At that same time, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was in Havana, Cuba rounding out his November 2008 diplomatic tour of Latin America. Over the past several months, increased military and economic cooperation has highlighted growing Russian involvement in a region traditionally seen as part of the American sphere of influence, sending a thinly veiled message that if American involvement in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus intensifies, Russia is more than willing to challenge U.S. hegemony in Latin America.
A Flowering Partnership
Russia’s growing presence in Latin America confronts a tradition of American hegemony in the region tracing back to the Monroe Doctrine. Yet Russia has already negotiated a $4.4 billion arms deal with Venezuela, and Russian companies have begun new investment in Venezuela’s oil, gas, and mining sectors.  Recent agreements with Brazil and Venezuela, moreover, suggest that Russia will be a willing supplier of civilian nuclear technology to partners in the region. Finally, Cuba, which held close ties to the Soviet Union, is again welcoming closer relations with Russia. Raul Castro arrived in Moscow to sign interstate trade agreements in January, marking the first time a Cuban leader has been to Russia since the end of the Cold War.
While the myriad ties between Russia and Latin American countries may not appear substantial in comparison to the U.S. $650 billion in trade America carries out with its southern neighbors, the partnership has been beneficial on both sides. Presented with an opportunity to break free from their dependence on status quo powers, Latin American countries are eager for a different kind of relationship. Steven Levitsky, professor of government and social studies at Harvard, explained to the HPR that Latin American governments are looking for ways to diversify their international ties. “By doing business with Russia, they are able to increase their leverage when negotiating with their traditional partners, such as the United States.” With the emergence of a countervailing influence in the region, countries such as Cuba, Brazil, and Venezuela can immunize themselves from American hegemony. Meanwhile, in response to increased American presence in former Soviet republics, Russia can assert herself as a potential thorn in the side of the United States.
A Big Chill or a Second Thaw?
One might wonder why the Kremlin would risk stirring up trouble in the region to improve ties with countries that represent only four percent of Russia’s total foreign trade. The answer has less to do with economic calculation than political maneuvering. An increasing presence in Latin America is likely motivated by a desire to balance against the world’s sole superpower, particularly after an era of interventionist foreign policy under the Bush administration. Russia had largely withdrawn from Latin America when the Soviet Union collapsed, but through a display of assertiveness in the region it can send a cautionary note to Washington. Russia’s goal is to send a warning to the United States in response to years of meddling in Russia’s traditional domain, such as supporting Georgia in last year’s August War and pushing for former Soviet republics to join NATO. Jeffrey Mankoff, an expert on Russian foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, told the HPR that Russia has felt disrespected by the United States over the past several years. “Little has been done concerning bilateral Russia America relations, and Russia wants to remind the United States that they are still a global power.”
Nevertheless, the Obama administration has an opportunity to reverse the current trend of souring relations. America’s softening stance on the proposed missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic has pleased Russian officials, as has the halt of the American push for Eastern European nations to join NATO. If the two former foes are able to come to an agreement regarding one another’s spheres of influence, based on mutual respect and a belief in global partnership, Russia and the United States might begin their second great thaw in the past two decades.