The Dawn of a New Era?

Cyber-warfare in the 21st century

The battleground of the latest revolution in warfare is virtual: no tanks, no missiles, no terrain. Yet, because of the nature of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and their ubiquitous coverage by the media, many have come to construct an understanding of modern warfare as based on surgical strikes, stealth technology, and counterinsurgency. This image, however, is incomplete. The distant shores of the Middle East do not reflect the nascent realities of the new century: the latest weapon—and target—in the theater of military operations is a computer.
Cyber-warfare may remain unknown to many Americans, but it is nothing new to defense establishments around the world. While cyber-warfare has been waged against countries with less advanced technological capabilities, most of the West has not witnessed or experienced cyber-attacks. But while public opinion lacks exposure to new developments, governments worldwide have undertaken significant preparations to counteract such threats, and Estonia and Georgia have already suffered in their wake.
A Palpable Threat
In April 2007, Russia initiated a cyber-attack against Estonia. The intention was to punish the small Baltic state for removing a statue commemorating fallen Soviet soldiers of World War II. The computers of banks, newspapers, parliaments, and ministries alike were successfully targeted, rendering basic state institutions and services inoperable. But while there is a consensus on the nationality of the aggressor, the full identity of the culprit remains unknown to this day, a trademark of this new warfare. Viktor Mayer-Schonberger, professor of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore and faculty affiliate at the Belfer Center of Science and International Affairs at Harvard University, told the HPR, “We have no direct way to know whether the attacks were ordered directly by Russia’s military chain of command or not.” The hallmark uncertainty of these attacks makes them all the more menacing.
In August 2008, Russia used cyber-warfare not as a form of bullying, but rather as the opening phase of a conventional conflict against Georgia. This indicated that “cyber-warfare will become an additional component in armed conflict, especially if the adversary is relatively high-tech, and thus depends on digital information flows,” Mayer-Schonberger said. The ‘cyber’ component is thus becoming an integral part of modern military doctrine. Just as air campaigns were used to suppress enemy communication systems, defense capabilities, and command networks in the opening phases of Desert Storm, cyber-warfare is morphing into the foremost sphere of future conventional conflicts.
A Logical Development
Cyber-warfare appeals especially to groups seeking supremacy over technology-dependent states such as the United States. Mayer-Schonberger noted, “In the West, an information infrastructure has evolved that is both essential to its economy and hyper-complex. Moreover, because of a drive for efficiency, multiple separated information infrastructures have become interconnected, reducing redundancy. The result is a unique weakness: attacking it is both relatively easy and of relatively high impact.”
The notion that more integrated societies are suddenly more vulnerable is a reality that Russia, China, and renegade hackers have embraced and now seek to exploit. Aaron Weisburg, founder of Internet Haganah (a website that monitors ‘cyber-jihad’), told the HPR that “the impression I get is that the USA is playing catch-up. We tend to emphasize gear over people, while our principal rivals are likely to have more people dedicated to the task.” The low-cost, high-impact nature of cyber warfare is extremely attractive for states competing against NATO members, for example, which are capable of spending dozens of millions of dollars for one fighter plane.
Whether or not the West is actually falling behind is unclear. Cyber-warfare is still relatively new and all the players involved guard their budgets, capabilities, and objectives under a thick veil of secrecy. While, as Mayer-Schonberger explained to the HPR, a country’s success in combating these threats relies on “a mix of capabilities, financial and human resources, and actual control over infrastructure,” prominent political players have no choice but to invest deeply in this new warfare revolution.
Military divisions have been created, intelligence communities have received additional missions, and doctrines have been formulated to respond to rising threats and preclude crippling attacks. Cyber-warfare is no longer in the distant future; it is already happening.