The 2012 election is finally starting to heat up folks. Candidates are making gaffes (Huckabee vs. Portman), others are defending their past (Romneycare), the incumbent says he’s not worried (Good luck with that Barack), and Florida is already breaking the rules (Florida to lose convention). But what we can begin to look at that has not gotten much attention is The Hill’s first publication of predictions for the House and Senate races.
With a current 242-193 advantage in the House for the GOP, it seems unlikely that the Democrats can take it back this go-around as they would have to switch over 25 seats. However, this would not be impossible if Democrats can hold onto all of their current seats, and grab all the toss-up and leaning Republican seats, as well as the likely Republican seats.
But realistically, 14 seats are the real goal for Democrats: seats which Republicans currently hold but which Obama and Kerry won in 2008 and 2004. Even this will be a challenge though, as the Democrats have eight of their own seats classified as toss-ups.
Nevertheless, what will be an even bigger prize in 2012 is a possible GOP takeover of the Senate. Currently at a 53-47 advantage for the Democrats, the Republicans are eyeing five to nine seats that could be prone to GOP takeovers depending on the national tide in November.
Open seats in Virginia and North Dakota are seen as almost guaranteed to go the GOP’s way, and an open seat in New Mexico, and races in Montana, Missouri, Nebraska, West Virginia, Ohio, and Florida round out the hot seats. With 23 seats up for re-election from the Democratic aisle, and 10 from the GOP, it is clear this election cycle definitely favors the Republicans. Who knows what would have been the result in the Senate if this kind of turnover happened in 2010. Plus eight or nine or ten?
Predictions:
GOP Nomination- Mitt Romney winning Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Florida while losing South Carolina to Mike Huckabee but dominating the field.
Obama vs. Romney- Mitt takes back Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Nevada, and New Hampshire to take back the White House. 291-247 Electoral Vote. 53-46 Popular Vote.
U.S. House- Republicans lose eight seats, but still keep a healthy majority.
U.S. Senate- GOP gains four seats to gain a 51-49 majority.
Photo Credit: http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2009/06/nebraska-attacks-ne-ag-sues-gm-for-dealer-bs/
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