Even more so than in his first term, President Trump has undoubtedly made waves just months into his presidency. Emboldened by a popular vote victory in the 2024 election, the president has upended the status quo in countless ways. But do the voters who brought him into office support these seemingly out-of-touch measures?
The Harvard Public Opinion Project just released the 50th edition of the biannual Harvard Youth Poll — one of the most comprehensive looks at young Americans’ political opinions and voting trends. The poll data from two key voter blocs, Black and Hispanic youth voters — considered in tandem with findings from the 2017 spring youth poll, which was taken during the corresponding period of Trump’s first term — reveals some surprising developments: While Trump’s overall approval ratings have stayed the same since the 2017 Harvard Youth Poll, his ratings among Black and Hispanic voters have significantly increased. Analyzing this data offers important insight into what Trump’s tumultuous start to the term means for the political landscape in the coming years, especially for these two voter blocs that have proven to be quite multifaceted and unpredictable.
In the 2024 election, 16% of Black voters cast their ballots for Trump, a 6% jump from 2016. In the same election, 43% of Hispanic voters voted for Trump, compared to only 28% in 2017. Data from the Harvard Youth Poll largely tracks with this voter shift. Trump’s approval among Black youth increased from 6% to 16%, and Hispanic youth approval rose from 19% to 22%. Underlying this shift, policies that used to be of great importance to Black and Hispanic youth have fallen down on the priority list.
Given that policy support typically goes hand in hand with what most affects voters, in this political climate of increasing deportation concerns and the dismantling of DEI programs, the shift in racial minorities’ voting priorities is of major consequence. Why do minority groups seemingly care less about policies they have traditionally identified as most impactful to them? Is it fair to say these groups are “voting against their best interests?”
Evolving Policy Priorities: Hispanic Youth
The data shows that minority voters have dramatically adjusted their policy priorities, moving away from issues traditionally associated with Democratic support. When Hispanic youth were asked about which national issues concern them the most in an open-ended question, the category of “Illegal Immigrants/Immigration” and other related terms dropped from 27% in 2017 to 12% in 2025. It is important to note that immigration decreased in priority among respondents of other racial groups as well. Hispanic youth do still tend to care more about this issue than White or Black youth, just less than in the 2017 Poll.
There are many ways to characterize Hispanic youth’s views on the broad category of immigration. Since restrictive immigration policy and increased deportation demands disproportionately affect Hispanic communities, one might traditionally expect this bloc to side with the Democratic Party and its immigration policies, such as the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program.
However, despite the marked increase in harsher immigration policy by the Trump administration, which could be expected to increase immigration as a priority, Hispanic voters seem to be less concerned with immigration-related issues, suggesting more complex views on immigration among Hispanic youth.
Pinpointing voter concern over immigration reveals that Hispanic youth are in fact shifting rightward on the issue. Within this group, belief that immigration has done more good than harm fell from 44% in 2017 to 36% in 2025. This is consistent with a wider trend of Hispanic voters distinguishing themselves from recent immigrants and indicating agreement with negative stereotypes about recent immigrants. This suggests that Trump’s border policies may resonate with some Hispanic voters or could point to a lack of unity in the voter bloc in response to Trump’s vow to enact the “largest deportation program in American history.”
Evolving Policy Priorities: Black Youth
Among Black youth, some policy priorities have shifted significantly. In 2017, healthcare was the top priority, with 14% of young Black respondents claiming it as such. In 2025, healthcare is only the top priority for 2% of young Black respondents, having dropped by 12 percentage points in eight years. Though stark, these changes align with the decline of Trump’s focus on repealing the Affordable Care Act, which is still in effect and has successfully cut in half the uninsured rates of minority groups.
So, what issues have risen to the top for young Black voters? Encompassing DEI, the economy, abortion, and foreign policy, the menu of extremely relevant and divisive topics has become quite long. Interestingly, the data most clearly suggests that young Black people have become more decentralized in their priorities. In the 2025 poll, 28% of Black youth voters ranked “Don’t know/no answer” when asked which national issues concern them the most. The response with the second highest percentage was “All issues” at 11%. This decrease in clearly defined priorities for Black voters raises more questions than answers.
One topic that could provide some insight is DEI programs. Only 47% of Black youth oppose ending DEI, and 23% support ending DEI. This lack of overwhelming support for DEI initiatives, which promote fair access to opportunity for minority groups, suggests a more complex relationship with these policies than is often portrayed. There is a growing audience of Black voters who believe DEI programs characterize Black people as “the perpetual victim.” In tandem with other controversial topics, the differences among young Black voters on the DEI issue could point to why Black Americans have such varying priorities. Overall, the DEI topic is relatively recent and thus could have emerged as a wedge issue that the polling options cannot capture with sufficient accuracy.
Amidst these complex outputs, one thing is for sure: the economy has remained a salient issue for both Black and Hispanic youth. In 2025, the economy is the national issue that concerns Hispanic voters the most, with 20% listing the economy as their top concern. For Black youth, the economy ranks third in priorities and first among specific issues, considering that “Don’t know” and “All issues” ranked first and second. This emphasis on economic concerns makes sense, given that those in poverty in the United States are disproportionately Black and Hispanic Americans.
It is important to note that, according to the U.S. Treasury, the “gaps between [poverty] rates for Black and Hispanic Americans and non-Hispanic white Americans have remained relatively constant since the early 2000s.” Given these historically stagnant poverty rate gaps, Black and Hispanic voters might believe that Trump’s vision for a better America includes them. On the whole, however, this consistent line in economic priorities does suggest potential avenues for renewed unifying efforts for minority communities, though the choice of which platform they unify behind is far from certain.
Significant Shifts or Inconsequential?
The context of political dynamics from 2017 to 2025 is crucial to understanding if these shifts among Black and Hispanic youth are of consequence. Throughout his presidential campaign and especially in 2017, Trump consistently utilized insensitive rhetoric and actions against Hispanic people, including casually throwing paper towels into a Puerto Rican crowd directly after Hurricane Maria and calling Mexican immigrants “rapists” bringing crime across the border. Consequently, some have argued that the Trump administration’s power was built on Hispanic racialization, exploiting preexisting politics of Hispanic immigration or White people’s fear of a majority-minority population, which has caused Hispanic people to face heightened experiences of White nationalist racism.
For Black Americans, inappropriate, racist rhetoric and actions are nothing new from Trump. During his first political campaign and administration, Trump called certain Caribbean islands “sh*thole countries” and remarked that “laziness is a trait in Blacks.”
Such rhetoric led to significant decreases in overall approval ratings after Trump’s first year in office. Among Hispanic voters, Trump’s approval dropped from 40% to 30% — approximately 10 percentage points — from 2017 to 2018. For Black voters, Trump’s approval fell three percentage points from 2017 to 2018, but was only in the 10% range to begin with. This suggests that Trump’s rhetoric and actions play a substantial role in how minority groups perceive him. Following this line of reasoning, Trump’s rhetoric toward Black and Hispanic voters in 2024 should have led to even lower approval ratings from these minority groups.
During his second run for the presidency, Trump doubled down on his divisive rhetoric, as well as proposed actions, that especially impacted these groups. Trump’s Republican Party Platform, undoubtedly influenced by the conservative Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, has major consequences for Black and Hispanic Americans. These policy recommendations included mass deportations, emboldening ICE, and ending sanctuary cities.
In regards to rhetoric, Trump reiterated a baseless claim about Haitian immigrants eating cats and dogs in Springfield, Ohio, during ABC’s presidential debate. After reviewing Trump’s rallies and campaign events, POLITICO has determined that his racist, anti-immigrant rhetoric was worse in his second campaign than in 2016. Relatedly, during a Trump rally in New York, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage,” and perpetuated racist tropes about Black people and watermelon. While Trump’s team said the jokes did not reflect the views of the campaign, the comedian was invited to speak by the party, reflecting poorly on Trump and causing significant outrage among Puerto Rican voters. These moments, among others, went viral and were quite explosive. So why did they not impede Trump’s momentum in winning over Black and Hispanic voters?
One shift that seems to be arising in both the data and qualitatively is fractures within the broader Black and Hispanic communities. Black communities can be split into many different sub-groups: Generational African-Americans, Africans, West Indians (from the Caribbean), and more. These communities all have their own distinct cultures and policy priorities based on their experiences and could be offended, or not, by different remarks about them.
This could also explain why different Hispanic communities, based on duration of stay in the U.S. or other factors mentioned above, seem to be voting almost oppositely on political issues like immigration policy and “illegal immigrants.” Disaggregating the data by these subgroups could provide insight into internal shifts underpinning broader trends. It is possible that increases in Trump’s approval are concentrated in certain subgroups and not across the board. With this insight, targeted messaging and policy recommendations could be adapted and implemented to better reach these audiences.
A New Political Reality
Ultimately, the Harvard Youth Poll data has revealed a political landscape where traditional identity-based voting blocs are fragmenting, which has major implications for politicians. It may not be that these minority groups care less about the policies that affect them, but rather that these voters have been dividing into smaller, influential groups that seem more predictive in their voting patterns.
The issues that Black and Hispanic youth voters found most important before are not the same ones they prioritize now. This data forces both parties to reconsider their approach to winning minority voters, as traditional appeals may be losing effectiveness. Above all, the data suggests that Trump’s gains among Black and Hispanic voters cannot be dismissed as anomalies. Future campaigns must address Black and Hispanic voters as the complex and multifaceted groups they have proven to be.
