On Jan. 20, 2025, Donald J. Trump will return to the White House as the nation’s 47th president. As we count down the days until a second Trump term, one question looms over all Americans, critics and supporters alike: What comes next?
The Largest Mass Deportation in History — Border Control:
The Trump campaign has routinely claimed they will deport 20 million undocumented immigrants residing in America, a figure widely considered an overestimate compared to the Migration Policy Institute and Department of Homeland Security’s tally of around 11 million. Nonetheless, such a plan could see one million people removed per year and would cost $150 billion, or $14,000 per deportee, excluding the estimated trillions in GDP losses from depriving businesses of both workers and consumers.
However, this plan is unlikely to receive complete funding, as even a Republican-controlled House and Senate would be unlikely to allocate funds to such a costly proposal. Congress would presumably only provide partial funding, and President Trump would try to use other means, such as replacing civil servants who are reluctant to carry out his plans and shifting more of the Department of Homeland Security Budget to ICE.
As a result, deportations could certainly rise to similar levels seen during the Obama administration, which peaked at 430,000 undocumented migrants deported in a single year. In addition, Trump would likely reduce the yearly number of refugees accepted by the U.S. — an amount solely determined by the president — as well as increase restrictions on asylum and visa applications.
The End of Abortion? — Reproductive Rights:
At the tail end of his campaign, Trump finally proclaimed his stance on a national abortion ban, promising to veto any such bill that reached his desk. Regardless, a national abortion ban would never come to him in the first place if the Republican-controlled Senate does not choose to abolish the filibuster — a matter they have not yet shared their plans for.
Trump could skirt around the need for a national abortion ban by enforcing the Comstock Act, antiquated legislation from 1876 that bans the mailing of abortives or related equipment. This would stop the shipping of abortion-inducing pills, which account for more than 50% of all abortions in the U.S. However, Trump has expressed uncertainty over the possibility of putting the Comstock Act back into force.
Furthermore, Trump has announced a plan for the federal government to pay for IVF treatments or to mandate that insurance companies cover costs associated with IVF. On the other hand, his stance on contraception is unclear. He has claimed he will not ban birth control, though it is likely he will implement policies that remove requirements for insurance to cover certain emergency contraception.
“Drill, baby, drill” — Energy & the Climate:
A primary focus of the Biden Administration has been investment in clean energy, with the Inflation Reduction Act estimated to generate $3 trillion in public and private investment in clean technologies by 2030. Trump has campaigned on reversing course, continuing to deny the reality of climate change. However, the IRA is unlikely to be repealed, as 80% of IRA tax credits are directed to Republican districts. While Trump could potentially reduce discretionary spending under the IRA, industry lobbyists would likely prevent substantial cuts.
Trump’s second term will likely weaken the Environmental Protection Agency through budget cuts and restaffing proposals. He could even reclassify jobs usually allocated to career civil servants to partisan appointees he could fire at will. By ensuring the agency is staffed by loyalists, Trump would be able to personally dictate the EPA’s regulations, allowing him to halt or reshape environmental policies to align with his administration’s agenda.
Regarding fossil fuel production, the United States is currently producing oil at record highs and is a net energy exporter. Therefore, the Trump Administration’s “Drill, baby, drill” plan will likely simply maintain the status quo.
Taxes & Tariffs — Economic Policy:
One of Trump’s significant accomplishments in office was his 2017 tax cuts, which reduced personal income taxes and corporate tax rates. In a second term, Trump would likely aim to go further, potentially lowering the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%, down from 35% in 2016. He also plans to exempt taxes on tips and Social Security benefits. Altogether, these cuts could cost an estimated $10 trillion over the next decade.
To offset these costs, Trump would turn to tariffs. During the campaign, he proposed a universal 20% tariff on all goods entering the U.S. and a 60% tariff on all goods manufactured in China. Since tariff policy largely falls under executive control, Trump would face little resistance from Congress, though his plans may be challenged in the courts. The total revenue generated by these tariffs would depend on potential retaliation from other countries, but they could offset a significant portion of the revenue lost from the tax cuts. As for Americans, just a 10% universal tariff could result in consumers losing up to $78 billion in annual spending power, according to a National Retail Foundation study.
American First, The World Second — Foreign Affairs:
Trump is well-known for his isolationist slogan, “America First,” which emphasizes his desire to reduce his involvement in foreign affairs. Regardless, on Jan. 20, he will find himself amid two international crises.
The president-elect has been relatively quiet about his plans regarding the Israel-Hamas war, focusing more on blaming the current administration for not preventing the conflict in the first place. Trump would likely continue U.S. military support for Israel, dismissing the possibility of withholding aid over humanitarian concerns in Gaza, as he has previously pledged to cut off aid to Palestine and bar refugees from the region.
Looking eastward, Trump has consistently stated he would bring the war in Ukraine to a quick end, urging negotiation between both sides. However, many are concerned that such negotiations could result in Ukraine conceding land to Russia, signaling to other global leaders in disputed zones such as Xi Jinping that aggression is a permissible and successful strategy. While aid to Ukraine will likely be reduced, the extent of those cuts remains uncertain.
Trump will likely return to his more antagonistic relationship with NATO. He has emphasized that he intends to demand other allied nations meet the alliance’s minimum defense spending requirement to receive U.S. protection. The U.S. will likely scale back its role as a global hegemon and security force, shifting focus toward a more isolationist policy.
Looking Forward:
If Trump keeps his word, policy on the border and the economy will likely be the main focus of a new administration, while reproductive rights and involvement in foreign crises are moved to the back burner. Regardless, if his first term is any indication, it is impossible to truly predict what will be the priorities of America’s 47th President.
Associate U.S. Editor
