Tweeting the Trigger

As an oft-static region of the world erupted in protests this past winter and spring, onlookers might have had fair reason to ask what had changed. Hosni Mubarak had ruled Egypt since 1981, his party undefeated since its founding. Yet in a matter of weeks, the “Pharaoh-for-Life” relinquished office, a man without supporters. Even more curious, the revolution was a non-violent, pacific effort, in stark contrast to the nation’s bloody changes of government in the past.
In the aftermath of the revolution, Western observers swiftly hailed social media as one of the revolution’s greatest champions. Over the course of the protests, websites like Facebook and Twitter provided a platform for individuals to voice their opinions, as well as a means of mobilizing large groups of people. Indeed, as media restrictions out of Egypt grew tighter, foreign news outlets took increasing amounts of their coverage from the sites. Yet, while social media proved a useful tool for Egyptian revolutionaries and their supporters, the movements’ label of a “Facebook Revolution” seems somewhat misguided. Facebook did not spark discontent with the Egyptian government, and other organizing tools proved influential. Nevertheless, social media certainly did influence the contours of the protests and likely accelerated Mubarak’s ousting. Whether the revolution could have succeeded without Twitter, it certainly could not have done so in the same way without social media’s help.
Pulling the Trigger
To most observers, the massive protests and subsequent toppling of Hosni Mubarak’s autocratic regime proved an unexpected shock. Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center, told the HPR that “it was entirely unprecedented. It was really a blank slate when it comes to this sort of protest. We’ve never seen anything like it before.” Indeed, rational observers would prove hard placed to explain the citizens’ willingness to demonstrate. In the previous history of the government, protesters could expect a violent crackdown at best, imprisonment and torture at worst. Yet the waves of people swelled each day, ultimately filling the revolutionary center of Tahrir Square.
To explain rapid mobilization and motivation, experts have fixed on social media as an obvious trigger. Dustin Tingley, assistant professor of international relations at Harvard University, alleges that “social media gave people higher confidence in the fact that other people would show up” to the protests, large numbers being desirable from an effectiveness and safety standpoint. Tingley claims that social media “serves as a conduit for information by solving the coordination problem,” namely the difficulty of getting people to show up, when such arrivals depend on the knowledge that other protesters will also attend. Moreover, social media’s assistance may have proven as much ideological as organizational. Jason Brownlee, a professor of government at the University of Texas–Austin, states, “well-off Facebook activists provided the gilded linchpin for an array of previously outspoken but disparate social and political groupings: labor, intelligentsia, opposition politicians, discontent citizens in the Sinai and the south, that for years had decried the conditions of Mubarak’s Egypt but not yet coalesced into a national movement.” As Brownlee points out, Facebookers may not have been representative of Egypt as a whole, but they proved passionate, dedicated, and possessed of a significant microphone.
The Trigger, Not Bullet
Whatever effect social networking had in Egypt, other nations have struggled to find the same success. In China, a group of activists advocating a so-called “Jasmine Blossom Revolution” attempted to follow Tunisia and Egypt and motivate popular protests against the government. Although the word “jasmine” managed to bypass China’s extensive internet filters, the movement failed to inspire more than fragmented protests. Tingley explains that “a revolution is unlikely to be successful in China. [The problems] are largely attributed to growing pains due to the quick economic growth.” Yet China’s failure also calls into question social media’s ultimate use to Egyptian revolutionaries. Only 4.7 million Egyptians out of 83 million use Facebook, and even fewer tweet. While visible signs of literate and elite opinion, the Egyptian revolutionaries’ social media postings may have mattered less than broad-spread discontent with the Mubarak regime.
Indeed, most academics assert that future revolutions depend as much on individual populations as online tools. Sparsha Saha, a third-year government Ph.D. student at Harvard, explains that “the probability of success [for a revolution] is lower in countries with a strong government that quells dissent…. [when] people are aware of the government’s resolve and perceive that, any other movement will fail.” The 2009 protests in Iran, under the Green Movement, made extensive use of social media, famously causing the U.S. government to plea with Twitter to delay maintenance, but the government managed to crush the Greens by detaining several key leaders in the movement. Even though many Iranians might choose to take to the streets of Tehran again, fear of government and lack of confidence in social media tools will likely inhibit protests, at least for the short-term. Should individuals choose to mobilize en masse, however, with or without Facebook, then such actions would enhance the cause of democracy in Iran.
A Connected, Global Future
Despite the limitations of social media that activists must deal with, the tools still enjoy the ability to change the political context in which individuals live. Hamid pointed out that “the use of Twitter allowed people outside of Egypt to follow along. It was a way to channel information and to get more people to care.” In fact, most of the tweets on the revolution came not from Egypt but from the rest of the world. Social media undoubtedly provided a powerful source of sympathy for the rest of the world, as well as a conduit for much of the protesters’ message. The outpouring of support for the Egyptian protesters helped decrease the autocracy’s legitimacy and forced Mubarak to back down or risk a takedown from outside powers.
The use of websites like Twitter and Facebook were important catalysts in the cycle of events that led to the end of the Mubarak regime. The essential factor, however, was the resolve of the people, with the support of the world favoring their triumph. While social media may not always be able to guarantee a successful revolution, the tool can still play an important role in framing the political context through which revolutions erupt. Saha believes that “social media will be a space for political beliefs. More so than in America, Facebook is used as a space for political activism and organization. In Iran and many countries that do not have freedom of speech, there is no space for political views to be expressed. Social media fills that void.”
Jenny Le ‘14 and John Prince ’13 are both Staff Writers.