As the United States reconsiders its relationships with nations around the globe in the face of current international upheaval, Senators Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) and Tim Kaine (D-Va.) have focused on bolstering the United States’ alliance with Colombia. On March 9, 2022, Menendez and Kaine introduced the U.S.-Colombia Strategic Alliance Act of 2022, which aims to designate Colombia as a Major Non-NATO Ally and increase defense and trade cooperation with Colombia. In order to fully elucidate the potential benefits and costs of passing the bill, one must consider the implications of MNNA status as well as the geopolitical and historical context that underlies the proposal.
At present, MNNA status applies to 17 countries with whom the United States cooperates economically and militarily without any formal security commitment. Of those 17 countries, only two — Argentina and Brazil — are located in South America, which points to a strategic reason for the current push toward codifying Colombia as an MNNA nation: further establishing the United States as a leader within the region. At a time when China and Russia are both increasing their presence within South America, the United States must not get complacent, or it risks losing crucial influence within the region.
Colombia’s upcoming election in May creates a time-sensitive pressure for the United States, Russia, and China to act, since a failure to demonstrate the benefits of cooperation could result in a dearth of diplomatic support from Colombia’s incoming leader. Colombia’s upcoming presidential election on May 29 has been fraught with concerns of Russian interference, which provides yet another factor that could influence U.S. lawmakers to strengthen relations with Colombia. The designation of Colombia as an MNNA nation would send a signal to whomever Colombia elects in May that the United States believes in Colombia’s utility as a diplomatic partner.
Beyond election interference, China and Russia have been increasing economic cooperation with Colombia. China recently made significant investments in Colombian transportation infrastructure through funding electric buses and a tram line, which were complemented by bilateral agricultural trade deals and an agreement authorizing Colombian usage of Sinovac, a Chinese-produced coronavirus vaccine. Meanwhile, Russia is incapable of making investments on a similar scale due to their deteriorating economy, so they have shifted their presence in Colombia to informational campaigns and other lower-cost investments. Given the zero-sum nature of great power influence, these actions present a clear reason for the United States to increase their involvement in Colombia.
A key provision of the U.S.-Colombia Strategic Alliance Act is the complete and timely implementation of Colombia’s 2016 Peace Accord, which ended five decades of civil conflict. The primary aspects of the Peace Accord that the United States seeks to enforce include guaranteed government seats for conflict victims, reparations for conflict victims, and a Truth Commission to reconcile tensions. NGOs and foreign governments have criticized the slow implementation of the Peace Accord and are worried that a new conflict could arise in the absence of a swift resolution. With the introduction of the U.S.-Colombia Strategic Alliance Act, the United States aims to show that their cooperation can result in more domestic stability within Colombia. This provision is unique since it directly deals with an issue of Colombian domestic politics rather than more traditional foreign policy issues such as trade or humanitarian aid. Accordingly, the inextricable link between domestic stability and foreign policy questions cannot be overlooked. If Colombian instability were to grow, the United States may not be able to fulfill their foreign policy obligations in Colombia. Through this lens, one can understand why Menendez and Kaine’s bill places such a strong emphasis on Colombian domestic stability.
Opponents of the U.S.-Colombia Strategic Alliance Act may argue that this bill is more symbolic than material in terms of what it aims to accomplish. One common criticism of foreign aid is that sending money to other countries can lead to corruption or misuse of funds. However, due to the Act’s recent introduction and relatively low profile, opponents of the bill have not yet crafted specific criticisms of the Act. Foreign aid has become an increasingly divisive issue, especially when it pertains to non-military concerns. This recent increase in disapproval of foreign aid has stemmed from two primary critiques: the perceived trade-off with domestic spending and allying with nations whose values do not align with ours. Those two arguments against foreign aid could seemingly be applied to the U.S.-Colombia Strategic Alliance Act of 2022, and it will be interesting to see how this dynamic plays out as the Act advances further in the legislative process.
As Colombia’s May election looms, the United States, China, and Russia are all trying to compete for a favorable diplomatic outcome. Consequently, the United States has attempted to make their regional presence known through The U.S.-Colombia Strategic Alliance Act of 2022. However, there are a few roadblocks that must be cleared before any consequences can be realized. In addition to overcoming the highly partisan and divided U.S. Congress, the Act still needs to earn 60 votes in the Senate to avoid a filibuster as well as a majority of votes in the House of Representatives. The Act was introduced by two Democratic senators with no Republican co-sponsors. It is unclear how Republican lawmakers would vote, with a likely factional split occurring between interventionists and isolationists.
Moreover, the results of the Colombian election in May could merit different responses to the efforts of the three countries (the United States, China, and Russia); for example, if the incoming administration is more ideologically aligned with United States foreign policy directives, then efforts such as the U.S.-Colombia Strategic Alliance Act of 2022 would be received more favorably by the Colombian government.
The United States is attempting to account for future uncertainty by demonstrating their value to Colombia in the provisions outlined by the bill. Understood through the lens of promoting regional strength in South America and deterring great powers in Russia and China, the reasons behind the United States’ push for improved relations with Colombia begin to take shape.
Image from Flavia Carpio is licensed under the Unsplash License.
