In recent years, Texas Democrats just haven’t had much to celebrate. The last time a Democrat won the governor’s office was back in 1990. They have claimed zero of the last 100 statewide races. Republicans currently boast supermajorities in the state legislatures, and a Democratic presidential candidate hasn’t carried the Lone Star State since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Since then, Texas’ political blood runs bright red.
There are growing indications, however, that massive ongoing demographic changes in Texas will turn it into an increasingly competitive state. The exact timeline of this political realignment is a topic for debate amongst political scientists, and much of it will depend on Democratic strategy and the Republicans’ tenacious resolve. A consensus is emerging, though: Republicans will not be able to comfortably hold Texas forever.
Snapshot of a Changing Texas
Democrats’ hopes of tugging Texas out of the Republicans’ column seem foolish at first. “When Democrats have credible candidates, they lose by 12 to 15 points,” Cal Jillson, a professor at Southern Methodist University, pointed out. “And when they have poor candidates, they lose by 30.” So why are Democrats becoming increasingly bullish on their long-term prospects?
The answer is fairly straightforward: Texas is experiencing a massive demographic shift. The state’s Hispanic population continues to expand at a staggering rate, and the Hispanic vote has historically leaned strong Democrat. In 2005, whites made up nearly half of the population. Today, they make up just 43 percent. Because of immigration and higher Hispanic birth rates, it is likely this trend will continue at its extraordinary rate – turning Texas plurality Hispanic as early as 2017. Indeed, a study from the Center for American Progress concluded that there will be 900,000 new eligible Hispanic voters by 2016 in Texas compared to only 185,000 new white eligible voters. signifying a massive opportunity for Democrats.
Democrats’ Difficulties
Though the rawest numbers may be on their side, Texas Democrats still face numerous and systemic challenges. First is the problem of dismal Hispanic voter participation. Only around 54 percent of Hispanics in Texas are registered to vote; only about half of these make it to the voting booth. “Texas isn’t a conservative state as much as it is a nonvoting state. Texas has an abysmal voting record,” Jason Stanford, a Democratic strategist, told the HPR. Texas’ turnout in 2012 was 50.1%, 4th lowest in the nation, and this can in part be traced to low Hispanic voting rates– despite making up 38 percent of the population in 2012, Hispanics only accounted for about 20 percent of the electorate.
Part of that problem as well is that a large share of Hispanics simply can’t vote. “About 30% of Hispanics in Texas are not U.S. citizens. Lots of those Hispanics have been in Texas for a very long time, and they have green cards but have never gone for U.S. citizenship,” said Jillson. “At some point Democrats should engage in naturalization efforts. If they don’t, they’re limiting their voter pool.”
The state Democratic party is also notoriously weak, casting doubt on whether it has the capacity necessary to increase Hispanic turnout on its own. “The Texas Democratic party is a shell of what the Texas Republican party is,” Jillson explained. “Losing is a habit. Once you’ve lost for 15 years in a row, as the Democrats have, your donors are shell shocked, and your volunteers are reluctant to give more time.” As a result, “There are a lot of counties where there is hardly any organized Democratic party presence whatsoever,” argued Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.
A New Hope
The problems facing the Texas Democratic Party are difficult, but it appears they will have outside help. After years of neglect, some national Democrats are beginning to invest more into Texas.
Following the 2012 election, Jeremy Bird, the leader of President Obama’s campaign field operation, founded the Democratic group Battleground Texas, an organization dedicated to turning Texas blue. In the short period of time since, it has become one of the Democrats’ organizational backbones in the state.
The group’s methods come straight from the playbook of Obama’s campaign. It employs various data-driven methods to target traditionally Democratic populations, particularly Hispanics. “Battleground Texas is going after people who are exactly like Democratic voters in every way except they just don’t vote,” Stanford said. “If we can engage them, then we can get them to vote.”
Battleground Texas focuses much of its energy simply on getting more Democrats to the polls, both by registering more voters and by engaging registered voters who don’t typically cast ballots. “It’s slow dirty work. It’s house to house registering voters and working turnout,” Jillson pointed out. Battleground Texas appears up to the task, though, as it’s garnered millions of dollars and over 10,000 volunteers already.
Importantly, Battleground Texas says it will remain in Texas for as long as it takes. “They say that rebuilding the Democratic party and the campaign infrastructure is the work of several election cycles, and that’s the way they need to approach it,” argued Jillson. “That can’t just be lip service, because there’s a lot of work that needs to be done to activate the Democratic party and its potential Hispanic voter base.”
Democrats will also likely get a boost from their 2014 gubernatorial candidate, Wendy Davis. Despite a scandal revolving around misinformation she gave about her personal background, Davis handily won the March 4 Democratic primary and is still probably the strongest candidate Texas Democrats have fielded in the last several elections. After launching a highly publicized filibuster against a strict anti-abortion measure in the Texas senate last summer, Davis became an icon to liberals in Texas and nationally.
Make no mistake: Davis is the underdog. Texas is still a fundamentally conservative state, and eleven polling organizations all show Republican Greg Abbott in the lead. Nevertheless, Davis will probably run a competitive campaign, and that signifies a step forward for Texas Democrats. “One thing to engage voters is competitive elections,” Stanford observed. “At this moment we’re lightyears ahead of where we were in the past in terms of registering voters. The Davis campaign is laying a real infrastructure that we can build on in the future, regardless of whether she wins or not.”
The Republicans Respond
The Republicans certainly won’t give up on Texas without a fight. In one move, Texas Republicans recently passed strict voter I.D. requirements. Though their official purpose are to prevent election fraud, Democrats worry these laws will keep minorities from the polls. According to the U.S. Justice Department, registered Texas Hispanic voters are between 46.5 percent and 120 percent more likely to lack the required identification than non-Hispanics.
The magnitude of this law’s effect, though, is still ambiguous. It is difficult to predict exactly how many potential voters will be turned away from polling booths – and how much Democrats can galvanize support over this issue. “It will probably dampen turnout a little,” Henson argued, “but there will be a countervailing effect as Democrats use it as a rallying cry to turn voters out at the polls. Calls of it being “voter suppression” is language that resonates with many African American voters.”
Money also is on the Republican’s side. Texas is home to many of the nation’s most generous Republican donors, who, with Texas solidly Republican, have been sending most of their money to close out-of-state contests. “Once the Democrats appear to become competitive in Texas, though, that money will come home in a tidal wave to defend Republican control,” Jillson said.
Aside from these facts, though, Texas Republicans find themselves in an uncomfortable position. “Republicans need to make some inroads among Hispanics,” Henson said. But, with current political dynamics being as they are, that seems like a difficult balancing act. “It’s hard for them to get right with Hispanics on immigration reform and not anger their base,” pointed out Stanford.
As long as the Hispanic population continues to grow and vote Democratic, Texas will become more competitive. “There is a national consensus that, over the course of the next couple of decades, Texas will go from deep red to crimson to maybe purple,” Jillson said. “And, unless Republicans do something very effective to restore their credibility with Hispanics, it could well become a Democratic state. And if Texas, as well as California, and New York, and Massachusetts, are all blue states, then Republicans will fall back to defend places like Kansas and Montana, and that’s just not enough to keep you viable nationally.”
With many states facing similar demographic changes, the same political battle over minority turnout is being waged all across America. Can Democrats reliably increase Hispanic turnout–is data-driven minority outreach their best bid for success? Can Republicans afford to strike back with stricter voter-ID laws supplemented with big money, or do they need more targeted outreach efforts of their own? These questions being tested first in Texas could not hold greater national significance.
Photo credit: Jorge Sanhueza-Lyon
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