The Harvard Public Opinion Project’s Fall 2014 survey demonstrates that, though a large portion of young adults (Americans ages 18-29) cited the government’s policies—the economy, foreign policy, immigration, race relations, and healthcare—as important determinants for their choice of candidate in the upcoming midterm election, they do not conclusively trust one political party over the other in handling such issues. In fact, youth reported higher percentages of uncertainty than trust in the Democrats and Republicans for all surveyed policies.
While young people were mostly concerned about policy, they were also unsure about each party’s capacity to deal with policy. Seventy-seven percent of those surveyed identified the economy as an important matter on November 4th. Eighty-four percent of both self-identified Democrats and Republicans stated that the nation’s fiscal state was a substantial factor in shaping their vote, compared to 70 percent of independents. Still, 30 percent stated that they trusted the Democrats to deal with the economy, 26 percent trusted the GOP, and 40 percent specified that they had no preference.
Young adults continued this trend of distrust in the major parties’ ability to handle policy issues when asked about foreign affairs. Sixty-six percent of youth identified foreign policy as important: 71 percent of Democrats, 78 percent of Republicans, and 58 percent of independents. Twenty-nine percent of those surveyed stated that they trusted the Democrats as better equipped to address foreign policy, compared to 24 percent expressing trust in the Republicans, and 44 percent admitting that they were undecided.
Sixty-five percent of youth identified immigration as a topic that strongly influenced their votes, with 70 percent of Democrats, 73 percent of the GOP, and 59 percent of independents sharing this proclivity. Thirty-two percent of millennials stated that they trusted the Democrats in addressing immigration policy, while 26 percent communicated trust in the Republicans, and 40 percent were not sure.
Fifty-one percent of young adults identified race relations as a salient policy, comprising 68 percent of Democrats, 46 percent of the GOP, and 43 percent of independents. Thirty-four percent of millennials trust the Democratic party to handle race relations, compared to 16 percent trusting the Republican party, while 46 percent said they did not know which party to trust. Though race relations yield the largest trust differential between the major parties, with Democrats garnering 18 more points than the GOP, the fact that a plurality of millennials is irresolute suggests that candidates have changes to make before they convince the nation’s youth that they can deal with these contentious issues.
Forty-two percent of those surveyed reported that they will vote in next week’s election, constituting 47 percent of young Democrats, 58 percent of young Republicans, and 30 percent of young independents. Given youth uncertainty about political party competence, candidates must demonstrate a clear grasp of policy in order to swing pivotal votes in their favor.
Young Americans’ lack of trust in political parties not only alters projected midterm election results, but also seems to influence the mechanisms by which millennials endeavor to galvanize societal progress. When asked for their thoughts on the best way to solve important issues, only 18 percent of millennials responded in favor of political engagement, compared to 42 percent who espoused community volunteerism and 37 percent who were not sure. The 24-point differential in trust between political engagement and community volunteerism indicates a shift in confidence from the ballot to acts of direct service, suggesting that millennials are increasingly taking policy matters into their own hands rather than relying on institutionalized parties. These results therefore signify that wariness of politics is a bipartisan phenomenon. In the 2014 midterms, 2016 presidential election, and beyond, both Democrats and Republicans must bridge the chasm in conviction between themselves and young constituents.
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