On September 20, 2019, the world saw an estimated four million people participate in the Global Climate Strikes. Only a few days later, youth climate activist Greta Thunberg took to the international stage at the United Nations, criticizing world leaders for not doing enough to address the climate crisis. Considering that Democrats have put climate change at the forefront of their platforms, it may not be surprising that a near 70 percent of voters aged 18-24 voted for Democrats in 2018. In fact, new data from the Harvard Public Opinion Project suggests that young people will continue to turn out in favor of Democrats as the 2020 election nears, given young people’s growing political engagement and general dislike of Donald Trump.
Understanding Young Americans’ Relationship with Politics
With youth political engagement on the rise, it seems that the youth vote may be crucial in the 2020 presidential election. HPOP’s latest poll indicated that 30 percent of young voters age 18 to 29 consider themselves to be politically engaged or politically active. By comparison, only 24 percent of respondents felt this way when the poll was conducted in 2017. This change in activist sentiment may reflect the large number of youth demonstrations recently seen across the country, including the March For Our Lives movement and the Global Climate Strike.
Not only are young people feeling more energized about politics, but they are also feeling more hopeful about the nation’s future. HPOP data shows that 42 percent of young Americans feel hopeful for the future of America, compared to only 31 percent in 2017. Meanwhile only 46 percent feel fearful about the nation’s future, compared to a previous 67 percent.
This rise in feelings of hopefulness and decline in feelings of fearfulness could relate to young people’s political engagement based on HPOP data. The poll found that politically engaged Republicans are more hopeful about the future of America than non-politically engaged Republicans (77 percent vs. 62 percent). This potential correlation between political engagement and hopefulness may reflect that young Republicans feel their work is meaningfully advancing their national political agenda.
Despite these positive sentiments, it seems that young Republicans lag behind young Democrats when it comes to their enthusiasm for taking to the ballot box. The poll found that young people who are likely to vote in the democratic primary are twice as likely to have participated in political rallies or demonstrations in the past than young people who are likely to vote in the Republican primary (20 percent v. 9 percent). Political movements in the last few years have tended to focus on issues which appear more important to Democrats, such as gun control, climate change, and criminal justice reform. With more opportunities for political engagement on the left, this gap could explain the 11 percent difference between parties.
The Value of the Youth Vote
As political engagement and hope impact youth voter participation, young people’s becoming more politically engaged and hopeful may play a critical role moving forward. As overall voter turnout in 2018 increased by 16 percent from 2014, youth voter turnout may already be playing a significant role in electoral politics. As voters aged 18 to 29 continue to grow as an electorate, young voters have a growing capacity to shape the 2020 election.
Not only might young voters have the ability to impact 2020 electoral results, but they may also do so in favor of the Democratic Party. Exit polls from 2018 noted that 68 percent of voters ages 18 to 24 voted for Democrats. HPOP data indicates that while a majority of young voters aged 18 to 29 are likely to vote in the general election (57 percent), the percentage of survey respondents who indicated they would vote in a Democratic primary is higher than the percentage of survey respondents who indicated they would vote in a Republican primary. However, this does not mean that youth overwhelmingly identify as Democrats or liberals. Further data from the HPOP poll shows that, of those asked, 56 percent of young voters lean neither Democrat nor Republican, with 48 percent of young voters self-identifying as moderates. While this data might seem to suggest a lack of clear preference for one party over another among young primary voters, HPOP data finds that young voters are still more likely to select a Democratic ballot for the primary or caucus (60 percent) than a Republican ballot (37 percent).
Based on these findings, it seems that Republicans may have more opportunity than many might have imagined to capture the youth vote — if they strategize right. Democrats may be earning these non-party leaning voters’ support for now, but it seems like their ideological commitment may be subject to change given their lack of clear party affiliation.
Young People’s Search for a New President
As youth become more politically active and bolster turnout for Democratic candidates, their electoral influence may pose a risk for President Donald Trump. Across policy issues, young voters overwhelmingly disapprove of Trump, with 71 percent of HPOP poll respondents expressing disapproval with the president.
While youth tend to disapprove of President Trump, approval ratings for the president vary based on his handling of specific policy areas. However, one issue seems to stand out among the rest to young voters: climate change. Data from the HPOP poll finds that out of all the issues Donald Trump has addressed, youth disapprove of his handling of climate change most strongly, with 73 percent disapproving and only 24 percent approving. The global climate strike in September amplified a message of the urgent need for climate action that stands in stark contrast to Trump’s anti-climate action stance. On November 4, 2019, the United States submitted formal notification of its withdrawal from the historic Paris Agreement on Trump’s orders, reflecting one in a series of actions by the president that seems to dismiss cries from the nation’s youth to take the climate crisis seriously.
With the 2020 presidential election fast approaching, youth may very well represent a deciding voter base in favor of the Democratic Party. Political engagement is higher among youth voting for Democratic candidates and turnout continues to increase across young voters. Especially given the high youth disapproval rating of President Trump, the Democratic party could capitalize on this increasing youth voter turnout. For Republicans in swing states, it seems that courting young voters will require taking stances on non-traditionally Republican issues that they care about, such as climate change. Ultimately, it may be a question of how both parties strategize that determines who will truly garner youth support.
Image Credit: Jonathan Wilson // WHYY
