America has long viewed its youth as the future, capable of emanating hope to the rest of society. Although the country counts on young people to be resilient, today’s American youth may be defined more by anxiety than optimism. Uncertainty about the nation’s current state casts a looming shadow on perceptions of the future. For many, that uncertainty is driven by concerns surrounding safety. New data from the Harvard Public Opinion Project’s biannual Youth Poll reveals that young people are largely pessimistic about crime and disorder. The poll, which surveyed approximately 2,000 18-29 year-old Americans, found that 38% believe crime and disorder in the country is getting worse; only 10% say it’s improving.
Interestingly enough, the numbers suggest that crime rates are not actually increasing. In fact, crime trends have been significantly improving; by most measures, crime has fallen to its lowest point in 50 years. Indeed, homicide rates have reached historic lows, and levels of property crime have been on the decline.
If the realities of crime point in a positive direction for the safety of Americans, why do young people not seem to see it that way?
Age Matters, But Lived Experiences Differ
There are several possible explanations. First, it might be more accurate to characterize the disparity as one of experiences between demographics, rather than simply a struggle between anticipated and actual effects. Take, for instance, HPOP’s finding that 39% of young women feel unsafe walking in their community at night, compared to 22% of young men. On the whole, a larger share of women than men believe crime and disorder in the country are getting worse. Perceptions of safety are not uniform across all young Americans; individual experience because of a certain identity — in this case, gender — appears to be playing a role in influencing pessimism on crime trends overall.
Consider also HPOP’s findings related to economic status. According to the Spring 2026 poll, financial status outweighs race, gender, and politics in shaping views on crime, demonstrating the role of financial security as a central driver of perceptions on safety. The difference in feelings of safety is evident when examining the breakdown of young Americans by socioeconomic status: 74% of young Americans who describe their financial situation as “very well-off” feel safe in their communities at night, compared to just 56% of young Americans who say they are “struggling to make ends meet.” Average crime statistics may not reflect the whole picture. Lived realities for certain demographic groups, such as women and lower-income citizens, contribute to an overall cynicism on the state of crime and disorder.
The Role of Information Consumption in Amplifying Fears
Young Americans’ news consumption habits may provide a second explanation as to the disparity between crime numbers and perceived safety. The age demographic already least likely to follow the news, young Americans may be inclined to look upon crime and disorder more despairingly because they genuinely do not know better. Because they are consuming social media religiously, young people may operate under the misguided assumption that crime is increasing thanks to the preponderance of misinformation amid a fragmented online landscape. Indeed, the problem with social media is that it often values virality over veracity. Sensationalized stories of crime may contribute to heightened safety concerns, especially as algorithms afford them a prominent position in young Americans’ feeds.
Sensationalism is a phenomenon that agencies like Immigration and Customs Enforcement have wielded to sow fear about crime. According to a Washington Post analysis, ICE’s social media feed mimics “an influencer-style media machine,” capitalizing off of photos and videos of arrests while celebrating when ambushes are especially click-worthy. Since President Trump took office, ICE’s X feed has been populated by dozens of profiles of alleged criminals who were arrested to “make America’s streets safe again.” The phenomenon of choosing the most provocative stories to elicit the greatest response on social media has even been given a name, dubbed the Oxford University Press Word of the Year: “rage bait”. Regardless of actual numbers on crime, when a young person turns to their Instagram or TikTok, the impression when scrolling may undermine ideas of safety.
Disorder Beyond Crime Rates
Finally, greater hostility in political rhetoric and national disorder suggests a third explanation for young Americans’ pessimism about safety. President Trump has disparaged many cities, particularly liberal ones, for being “dangerous” and “overtaken by violent gangs.” With such deprecating assertions, President Trump justifies his unprecedented deployment of federal law enforcement in U.S. cities, including National Guard troops and ICE officials. Simultaneously, however, Trump extolled the record-low crime in recent years, taking credit for renewing the nation’s dedication to “law and order.” President Trump’s contradictory rhetoric may contribute to a broader sense of uncertainty, complicating how young Americans perceive safety even when crime trends are improving.
Trump’s rhetoric and the perceptions of safety speak to the important distinction between crime rates and a general feeling of instability. The poll captures not only views on crime, but also on disorder, which is an inherently harder concept to quantify. As a result, even if perceptions of crime alone were to improve, young people may still view America as more disorderly. And few can fault them. After all, the U.S. now deals with political polarization so intense that it has led to mass protests, threats, and even violence.
Consider the surge in federal troops in major cities as a concrete example of disorder’s distinction from crime. Following President Trump’s 2025 inauguration, ICE arrested nearly 400,000 individuals whom they described as the “worst of the worst” criminals. But while purportedly addressing crime, increased enforcement sparked a powerful response, especially in the form of widespread protest and civil disobedience. In some cases, the agency’s enforcement actions extended beyond criminals, including to American citizens Renee Good and Alex Pretti, who were killed by ICE. In response to protests, the administration deployed the National Guard in several cities to quell unrest, though such measures may have instead further escalated tensions. In this era of increased domestic military presence, citizens may be hard-pressed to find their country in a state of calm.
Ultimately, while crime is declining, perceptions of safety among young Americans remain deeply pessimistic. This disconnect reflects more than a simple misunderstanding of the data; rather, it points to demographic, media, and rhetorical factors that future lawmakers must take more seriously. Understanding the complexity of young Americans’ safety demands is essential for anyone hoping to address their concerns, or possibly, win their votes.
