Georgia’s 2026 elections could once again deliver a split verdict: a Republican governor and a Democratic senator. Republican healthcare executive Rick Jackson and former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms are now competing to succeed Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp after the governor’s second and final term. Meanwhile, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is seeking reelection against Republican Rep. Mike Collins of Georgia’s Tenth Congressional District.
Although both Democrats are competing for many of the same voters, they face different challenges in capturing voter bases. A September YouGov survey, reported by FOX 5 Atlanta, showed Ossoff leading Collins by ten percentage points, while Jackson and Bottoms were separated by only one point. This difference suggests that some Georgians remain willing to support a Democratic senator without giving Democrats the governor’s office, a pattern reflected in the election of both Kemp and Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock in 2022.
Senator Ossoff’s appeal rests on persuading Republicans that his work for Georgia deserves another term, even if they disagree with his party’s ideology. Bottoms faces a different challenge, as she must persuade those voters that her record as Atlanta’s mayor warrants similar confidence in her ability to govern. Jackson’s campaign appearances with Kemp may appeal to Republicans who want the next governor to retain Kemp’s combination of conservative leadership and independence from Trump, as these joint appearances suggest that Jackson would share Kemp’s willingness to challenge the president, while Collins’ continued defense of Trump could push those same voters toward Ossoff. Confidence in Ossoff’s performance may outweigh Republican voters’ concerns about his party without translating into support for other Democrats.
A Familiar Split
For some Republicans, Ossoff is the exception: He represents the type of candidate they’re willing to cross party lines to support. Mayor Scott Matheson of Valdosta is backing Ossoff after the senator helped secure federal transit funding for the city and supported its recovery from Hurricane Helene in 2024. Specifically, Ossoff had worked with Sen. Raphael Warnock to secure $500 million for storm-damaged water infrastructure across Georgia. “There’s no way I’m going to turn my back on that, politics aside,” Matheson told PBS NewsHour. Matheson is notably supporting Republicans in every other race. Ossoff’s work for Valdosta has given Matheson a reason to make an exception for him, but Bottoms still has to persuade voters like Matheson to make another.
Mayor Matheson’s endorsement shows why Ossoff’s support among Republicans may have limited benefits for Bottoms. Even with Senate control at stake, a senator who helped a city recover from a hurricane can earn the support of its conservative mayor, even if the demographic leans solidly Republican across other races.Ossoff’s Senate record gives voters across Georgia examples of what he has done for their communities. He has developed these relationships statewide while in office, leaving Bottoms to establish why voters should place the same confidence in her.
The differing nature between federal and state offices also gives voters reasons to distinguish the contests. A Republican unhappy with Trump could favor Ossoff as a check on the administration while still preferring Jackson’s affordability plan, centered around proposed state tax cuts. Georgia’s 2022 results exhibited voters’ willingness to cross party lines when Kemp won another term as governor, while Democratic Sen. Warnock retained his Senate seat.
Jackson’s Search for Kemp Voters
After previously pledging to become President Trump’s “favorite governor,” Rick Jackson used the Oct. 6 town hall to promise that he would “stand up to anybody, just like Brian Kemp has done.” For instance, in 2020, Kemp refused Trump’s request to call a special legislative session to overturn Joe Biden’s victory in Georgia. Jackson is now asking voters to associate him with that style of independence.
Jackson’s earlier enthusiasm for Trump gives Bottoms a specific basis for questioning the change. Bottoms has seized on Jackson’s earlier pledge towards Trump to question whether his new emphasis on independence will genuinely represent his governing style or simply how he wants voters to see him. She accused Jackson of scrubbing references to Trump from his campaign website and called him a “chameleon.” Gov. Kemp has stood up to Trump, but praising Kemp does not tell voters whether Jackson would truly do the same. Republicans uneasy with Trump may need more reassurance before backing him.
Bottoms also has her own record to defend. An Atlanta Journal-Constitution analysis found that Atlanta’s reported homicides rose 59% from 2019 to 2020, compared with an average of 33% in the other cities examined. Jackson has used the increase to question her ability to govern, although experts interviewed by the newspaper cautioned against blaming a mayor for pandemic-era crime trends. Still, Republican voters could find Jackson’s criticism of Bottoms’ public safety record persuasive. Jackson’s path to Kemp voters may therefore depend on making the election about Bottoms’ record rather than his own loyalty to Trump.
Collins’ Defense of Washington
While Jackson has leaned on Kemp’s record in Georgia, Collins spent the Oct. 8 Senate debate defending Trump’s policies in Washington. Ossoff blamed tariffs and the war in Iran for rising expenses facing Georgia families and farmers, while Collins defended tariffs as a way to strengthen American manufacturing and blamed Biden-era policies for inflation. Although Ossoff is the sitting senator, he can campaign against decisions in the current Republican-dominated Washington; Collins, meanwhile, must explain why voters should give Trump’s policy ideas more time to work.
On healthcare, Collins again had to defend his party’s policies against Ossoff’s criticism that they were making life more expensive for Georgians. When Ossoff attacked the Medicaid cuts in Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Collins pointed out that the bill maintained funding for rural hospitals and blamed the Affordable Care Act for rising costs. Both candidates were selecting the provisions most favorable to their argument, but Collins’ defense of the Big Beautiful Bill gave Ossoff an opportunity to challenge Congress’s decision to cut Medicaid through the law. Ossoff could question whether the law’s rural health funding justified its Medicaid reductions, forcing Collins to defend the legislation on its own terms rather than simply criticize Democrats’ handling of healthcare.
Collins’ criticism of Ossoff’s Biden-era votes prevents the senator from presenting himself as a bystander to Washington’s decisions. Still, Collins is a sitting member of Congress defending the party in power, which makes it difficult for him to make the election a verdict on Ossoff alone. Jackson’s invocation of Kemp offers Republicans reassurance that their nominee could disagree with Trump, but Collins’ defense of tariffs, the war in Iran, and the Big Beautiful Bill make him considerably more aligned with the president. For voters dissatisfied with federal policy but comfortable with Republican leadership in Georgia, Jackson’s association with Kemp offers a reason to keep the governor’s office Republican, while Collins’ loyalty to Trump offers a reason to cross party lines for Ossoff.
Another Divided Ballot
The Senate result will shape Democrats’ chances of regaining control of the chamber. With the party needing a net gain of four seats, an Ossoff loss would require an additional victory in another race. Ossoff has reason to keep emphasizing his work for Georgia and appealing to voters who may still prefer Republican state leadership. Collins, meanwhile, would need to persuade those voters that their preference for a Republican-controlled Senate outweighs their confidence in Ossoff.
The governor’s race presents a different challenge. Jackson’s references to Kemp offers voters a reason to consider him separately from Collins, but his promised independence may be more convincing if he identifies where he would disagree with the Trump administration. Bottoms and Ossoff’s joint campaign could help her reach voters already supporting the senator, though she would still need to address concerns about her Atlanta record. Opposing Trump may convince prospective voters, but winning their support will also depend on whether her mayoral record convinces them she can manage state government effectively.
Both parties are campaigning for support across the ballot, but the voters who reelected Kemp and Warnock in 2022 have already shown that confidence in one candidate does not necessarily carry over to the rest of the ticket. Georgia’s results may once again give both parties a victory without giving either the full endorsement it hoped for.
