As Democrats and Republicans scramble for control of the Senate, every seat matters. There is one race, however, that hasn’t received much national attention and could surprise observers come Election Day. The state, often viewed as a Republican stronghold, has become a battleground, reflected by its potentially-flipping House seat as well as its Senate race steeped in controversy and inter-party conflict.
On Jan. 21, 2026, President of the University of Montana Seth Bodnar announced he was stepping down from his position. This followed rumors of Bodnar’s interest in running for Senate on Jan. 9 in a leaked text allegedly from former Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, who lost reelection in 2024 to Tim Sheehy. The text characterized the Montana Democratic Party as “poison” and indicated that Tester would endorse Bodnar running as an independent.
On March 2, Bodnar officially announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate as an independent and subsequently received an official endorsement from Tester. He entered a crowded field of candidates, with four Republicans, five Democrats, and two Libertarians. However, he only needed to gather 13,000 signatures by May 26 to earn a spot on the ballot for the general election.
Just two days later, with five minutes left before the filing deadline, Republican Sen. Steve Daines pulled out of the Senate race. This paved the way for his hand-picked replacement, Kurt Alme, former U.S. Attorney for the District of Montana, who filed with only eight minutes left before the deadline. Daines told Semafor in an interview that this maneuver was to prevent any Democrats with strong bases in the state — such as former Sen. Jon Tester or former Gov. Steve Bullock — from running. A similar maneuver unfolded in this year’s race for Montana’s First Congressional District, where Rep. Ryan Zinke dropped out of the race with only a few days left before the deadline, endorsing fellow Republican Aaron Flint as his replacement.
The Democrats also saw their fair share of primary election controversy. Alani Bankhead, a retired Air Force lieutenant, and Reilly Neill, a former state representative, were frontrunners for much of the primary, with Bankhead eventually securing the nomination on June 2 with 43.6% of the vote over Neill’s 33%. Some have attributed this success to the super PAC More Jobs, Less Government spending $700,000 in support of Bankhead and attacking Neill. The PAC has also supported multiple Republican candidates across the country, including Montana candidates like Aaron Flint and Kurt Alme. Additionally, the super PAC, Progressive Vet PAC, which supports progressive veteran candidates taking on MAGA opponents, spent over $3 million in support of Bankhead, although they eventually stopped supporting Bankhead after the primary, claiming that “a Democrat does not have a viable path to winning the Senate seat.” The PAC has not since come out in support of any other Montana candidate, as they have instead shifted their attention to the U.S. Senate race in Kansas.
This super PAC spending is significant for multiple reasons. First, Democrats in this race have been severely outfunded, with Neill only raising about $310,000 before the primary and Bankhead having less than $60,000 on hand as of Oct. 15th, while Bodnar has raised over $3.2 million and Alme about $2 million. Thus, super PAC spending had a comparatively greater impact on the Democratic primary than on other primaries. The high amount of spending from PACs aligned with Republican candidates has caused some to believe that Bankhead would likely drop out, either due to Republican interference or fear of splitting the vote with Bodnar and handing her ideological opposite the seat.
Despite these speculations, Bankhead has refused to drop out of the race. Her reasons for doing so are multifaceted, but one that she has expressed many times is that she was nominated by nearly 50,000 Montanans, while Bodnar received only 30,000 signatures. She has also pointed to the lawsuit filed against Bodnar and the University of Montana during his tenure as president. The lawsuit had 18 plaintiffs alleging that the University of Montana violated the anti-discrimination policies of Title IX. Ultimately, they reached a $350,000 settlement paid out by the university. Bankhead has used this to argue that Bodnar should step down, saying, “Jeannette Rankin [a former representative from Montana, and the first woman elected to Congress] wouldn’t stand for anyone who discriminates to be in a leadership position.”
Bankhead also stated in an interview with Montana PBS on Oct. 15th that the Democratic National Committee (DNC) offered her a position in exchange for her dropping out. This may be a violation of Montana state law, which outlaws the making of promises that interfere with the candidate nomination process. Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen is launching an investigation into the DNC and Bodnar’s campaign on these grounds.
As she persists in the race, Bankhead has also faced obstacles from her own party. On Oct. 12th, 2026, chair of the Montana Democratic Party Shannon O’Brien announced she would be stepping down from her position in order to endorse Bodnar. She said this was in part due to Bodnar’s values, as well as his position as “the candidate with the momentum and resources to get across the finish line,” and to ensure the Republican candidate doesn’t win. In response, Bankhead said, “[O’Brien’s] been working against us from the beginning,” and went on to say that people are entitled to freely vote for the candidate they support.
O’Brien’s decision to step down, however, is suspicious for multiple reasons. First, other board members within the Montana Democratic Party have endorsed non-Democratic candidates, including Bodnar in this cycle, without stepping down first. Additionally, the Montana Democratic Party has allegedly launched an investigation into O’Brien for granting a nearly $30,000 severance to a former party employee without board approval this past January, which the board did not learn about until this September.
Additionally, O’Brien had received legal analysis from Elias Law Group on whether the Democratic Party is required to put up another candidate, should Bankhead drop out. Kristi Jacobsen, the Republican secretary of state, had previously said she would force the party to do so. O’Brien shared the legal document, which was marked “private and confidential,” with the party’s county-level leadership, and it was subsequently leaked on social media. Many Democrats have suggested that O’Brien was seeking to drive Bankhead out of the race. Members of the Montana Democratic Party board discussed O’Brien being removed, as State Rep. Pat Noonan confirmed to the Montana Free Press. Ultimately, these developments reflect the party’s grappling with its role in competing against state Republicans in a uniquely three-way race.
Montana’s U.S. Senate race has seen many twists and turns, from candidates suddenly dropping out to party allegiances breaking down. While the contest has been shaped by many peculiar elements, it also raises important discussions about the changing dynamics of electoral politics. The strength of independent candidate Seth Bodnar in a state that has long been seen as a Republican stronghold serves as both a representation and a test of avenues for change outside of the two-party structure in seemingly uncompetitive states. The race’s polling numbers fail to reflect the complexity of this shift in Montana’s race, making it one to watch on election night.
